Hi, I started a company, Promoted.ai (YC W21) that solves this. My background is from Facebook ads eng and Pinterest ads eng. Large advertisers are already aware of this, and so is Facebook and Google. At Facebook, I led a research team to help big accounts to drive more incremental conversions. At Facebook at least, there is a lot of energy to try and generate the most true performance lift and measure it as correctly as possible.

However, every advertising platform will take your money if you give it to them, so buyer beware.

True incrementally is a challenging measurement issue and therefore even more challenging to predict for delivery via ML. It's real, though, just hard.

Buyer beware. When buying ads, think the stock market. If you hear stories about 20x ROI from random people, do what you when you hear 20x ROI on stock picks: nothing.