Although regional numbers vary of course, in my state the death rate by county has averaged between 0.0004 and 0.0032 percent.
Or, in decimal notation, 0.000004-0.000032
These numbers were calculated based on the Covid data repository maintained by the New York Times (https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data) and US Census data (http://www.census.gov/).
0.000004 * 320,000,000 = 1,280 deaths for the entire USA. Your higher estimate yields 10,240 deaths. In reality we’ve had at least 700,000 deaths.
For those who are infected, the naive Case Fatality Rate is about 1-2%. See for example, https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid There are reasons to suspect the real rate is lower in several countries - many places under test cases, so the denominator in deaths/cases is too small.
Additionally, this rate isn’t static - we were seeing upwards of 10% death rates before effective treatments became known and available.
Since 30 to 40 percent of humans experience no illness with this thing the denominator can be quite different depending on what you use for it. Notwithstanding that...
John's Hopkins Website https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda759474...
USA
Total Cases Total Deaths
44,318,179 712,975 1.6%
This is with oxygen support and whatever treatments have been used.
In Mexico where health care seems harder to access
Total Cases Total Deaths
3,720,545 281,958 ~7.6%
So IF you get sick and you don't have modern medicine it's a serious disease.
IF you are one of the lucky 30..40% it's a piece of cake. Flip a coin.
So if we correct by that 40% factor the USA goes to 1% death rate or roughly 10X influenza.
Mexico becomes 4.5%. Not insignificant.
Also not necessarily in the first or second wave...