Some data to back up your argument would really help here. The VC market has never been more founder-friendly, and the amount of VC invested is at an almost all-time high. Additionally, last year was the 3rd highest in the last 20 years for the number of IPOs. So just because you found yourself in an overly negative HN thread shouldn't skew your view that the chances of doing well are higher now than ever before (which is not meant to imply that they are high on an absolute level, but certainly in comparison to prior years).