If you believe that the launch market could increase by 10x if costs fall by 10x then a 50 Billion/year revenue is achievable within 5-10 years. Satellite internet is a direct bet on this outcome by betting that Spacex could capture substantial portions of the ISP market.
Ultimately as an investor you have to buy into this hypothesis to invest, and success will only occur if you invest a few 10s of billions. Therefore SpaceX will have a valuation in the hundreds of billions less all shareholders immediately dilute themselves. It probably helps that there are a large number of hundred billionaires interested in Space exploration.
> The Global Space Launch Services Market size was estimated at USD 12.86 Billion in 2020 and expected to reach USD 14.92 Billion in 2021, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) 16.29% from 2020 to 2026 to reach USD 31.84 Billion by 2026.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/space-launch-services-market...
https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/cislunar-space-next...
Who knows what growth would be like with much cheaper launch but I'm hoping high.
There are a large number of interesting economic opportunities from resource extraction to supersized science experiments and energy production once we're out of the gravity well at reasonable economics.
I realize the US security and military apparatus has gladly been turning a blind eye to Musk's ties with the CCP, but at some point reality imposes itself on you. You can only ignore it for so long, much to the chagrin of the Trump and Biden administrations.
Think space stations, lunar outposts, mining and manufacturing.
Edit: I have no idea if the more modest capabilities of starship/super heavy justify the current valuation, but they at least seem like they would be useful capabilities to maintain.
Plus they can expand the real state in the ISS much cheaper by just docking and leaving it there.
they are one of the most important companies in the world in terms of national security. Musk has said publicly they are talking to the military about making resupply anywhere on the planet possible within 1 hour. They are also multiples cheaper than any competitor in terms of getting things into orbit
https://futurism.com/the-byte/spacex-building-military-rocke...
One certainty is that those private investors involved are already set to take some of their profits on IPO day which means they will dump some of the shares to catch out the retail investors immediately rushing to purchase SpaceX shares at very high prices.
Not saying you shouldn't buy at all, but keep in mind that institutional investors are there to make money and will get their return on investment and can/will manipulate the stock to make even more.