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Comment by MatthewPhillips | Hacker News Reader

Marco's source for Android sales: Daring Fireball.

Another source, reported by BGR, has Android at 20% of tablet market share.[1]

[1]http://www.bgr.com/2011/08/12/android-steals-20-of-tablet-ma...

Gruber bases his analysis on Google's biweekly publication of Android version distributions, observing that for the two weeks ending July 14th, only 0.9% of 'live' Android installations were running Honeycomb (Android 3.0 or 3.1). This is somewhat disingenuous, since the vast majority of Android apps run fine on earlier versions (as used mainly on smartphones).

But let's go with his Honeycomb filter anyway; the latest update from Google (August 1) shows Android 3.0, 3.1 and 3.2 enjoying market shares of 0.4%, 0.7%, and 0.2% respectively, for a total of 1.3%. A 44% increase in Honeycomb tablet shipments in the space of 2 weeks seems somewhat unlikely, but a portion of that may result from 'back to school' sales; that's part of why I bought mine.

The market is going to look very different in a year. I consider myself and Android/Google fanboy, but when Motorola launched their Xoom last winter I rolled my eyes at the absurdly high price along with everyone else. It seems to me that the Honeycomb platform didn't get started properly until April, when Acer and Asus lunched products that competed with the Ipad around the $500 price point. Since then Samsung and Lenovo have released their own Honeycomb devices, and Asus claims to be selling 400k/mo. of its Eee tablet. Amazon's two forthcoming tablets are likely to sell well too, if the success of the Kindle is any guide. I see a 4:1 use ratio between iPad and equivalent Android tablets this time next year, maybe even 3:1 if Android products cluster around the $400 price point. It took Android on smartphones a few years to achieve market parity with Apple's offering.

As well as being good for consumers, this is good news for developers too. From never buying any apps for my Android phone, I'm about to drop $20 today (VPN/remote desktop, pro PDF tool, sketchbook). Although I only got the tablet last Monday (an Eee btw), it's already drastically altering my use patterns, and I feel safe in finally calling the death of the conventional PC. I find the device infinitely more satisfying and productive to use than any laptop I have ever owned, and can plug in a keyboard dock if I need to do a lot of typing.

RIM and HP are the big losers here; I can't see any reason to buy into the Blackberry OS or WebOS from either a consumer or business point of view.

There are probably more sales of non-Honeycomb tablets than Honeycomb ones so far. Non-Honeycomb tablets are still being launched right now, too. So yes saying all Android tablets are the ones with Honeycomb is definitely disingenuous.

The frustrating thing with all the "sales" numbers I've seen for Android based tablets is that they all seem to mention the units _shipped_, but not necessarily sold to consumers. The original article quoted by BGR still says "shipments". Is this just a semantic difference and those really are sales? I honestly can't figure that out.

And do those numbers account for customer returns as well, since there do seem to be a certain amount of anecdotal evidence to suggest that Android tablet returns are abnormally high.

Furthermore, there also seems to be a large quantity of super-cheap, and super-terrible Android based tablets [1]. Are those counted in the same numbers as better ones like the Xoom and Samsung Tabs?

I'm not trying to be snarky, just genuinely curious if people are actually BUYING Android tablets (and keeping them).

[1] http://www.the-digital-reader.com/2011/06/05/archos-unveiled... Crap screen, crap battery, barely any memory, < 3.0 OS.

The problem is that in general people don't really know sales, except in limited instances. The main one being when stores can't keep items on the shelves so sales to consumers equals shipments (approximately). That's why MS knew how many Kinects sold over the holidays.

But in general there's no way for OEMs to know exactly how many Android tablets are in consumer hands.

Device activation. When the device is first turned on and connected to a network, it phones home.

That's how Google knows about every Android phone.

You would still miss the huge returns though (unless you remove those not being used since x weeks ago).

Unless the returns are sold as used/refurbished

I get the feeling Gruber and Marco do not exactly like non-Apple platforms.

There's a difference between units sold to retail, units sold to customers, and units that are actually in use by customers. I'm also curious if they count Nooks, which are not always used as tablets even though they run Android.

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for non-Apple tablets. But in reality, there don't seem to be that many in the wld yet.

I'm not saying the article is credible, I'm saying Daring Fireball isn't.

I think it's sad what Marco's rooting interest are here. It's not enough that the iPad succeed. It's competitors have to fail for him to be happy.

If the tablet really is the future of personal computing then there will be more than 1 successful platform. If not, then maybe not. Right now Best Buy is betting their business on the former. If you walk into a Best Buy they have a section for tablets equal to their section of laptops (and larger than their 1 row of desktops). Maybe Best Buy is wrong and they'll go back to a big area of laptops again. Or maybe Marco, Gruber, etc. will find a new data point that they can point to as being all-important.

I think Best Buy are making the right call. I have wanted a tablet as my general-purpose computer for years, and had been hugely frustrated at the high price and low uptake of Windows models. When the iPad was announced I immediately hailed it as a game-changer (and am still waiting for another HN reader to make good on his $100 bet that it would go nowhere). I'm thrilled to see worthwhile competitors emerging this summer; last time computers were this interesting was maybe 15 years ago.

I think it's sad what Marco's rooting interest are here. It's not enough that the iPad succeed. It's competitors have to fail for him to be happy. If the tablet really is the future of personal computing then there will be more than 1 successful platform.

Marco and Gruber would be fine with the two successful platforms being iOS and WP7. They honestly believe that the mandatory walled garden model with heavily limited options is better for most customers, and that "open" platforms such as Android (and Mac OS X) are fundamentally incapable of providing the same level of user experience. I disagree completely, but their position is more nuanced than just Apple fanboyism.

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