"53 percent said it was going badly, a rise of 15 percentage points from June"
edit: direct links to the survey results
June 21: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20...
Sept 29: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20...
I assume this poll's just going to follow the news cycle, with different voters more inclined to respond accordingly.
They did ask. Click on the Politics tab above the survey results at YouGov
But, in any case, a broadly-representative sample population will naturally reflect the original Brexit voting ratios, approximately (if YouGov can't even conduct a survey professionally, then we can stop wasting time discussing this, and ignore everything from them)
Yes but that's not what you want? Surely you want to remove the effect of that, have 50% who would vote each way, so that ideology is removed and the results are purely about 'how it's going'?
Ideally, you'd just hope to be able pick people at random, and as long as the group isn't too small, it will naturally reflect the general preferences of the entire population - though in reality it's not likely to be so easy, not least because some people don't want to participate in your survey
The full question is:
> The EU transition period ended on Dec 31st 2020. Since then, do you think Brexit has gone well or badly?
but as I commented elsewhere in this thread, compared to what? If your baseline is (as it likely is) that it is a good or not good idea at all. An answer (that the poll couldn't get) might be 'I think a better job's being done and it's going better than I thought possible, but we're in a worse place than if we'd never left'. Another might be 'we were right to leave and I stand by that but this execution is terrible'.
I just noticed there as at least a break down by leave/remain vote in the 'politics' tab: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20... - I suppose I just think that should be front and centre as the main result, it makes more sense to me (not parties so much, just the referendum vote) than 'all adults'. I think it's much more interesting. It shows exactly the bias from that that you'd expect, but also weighted towards the 'bad' end from 'leave' vote more than 'remain' is toward 'good' - which makes the same point as overall of course, I just find it more convincing.
How could you have 'just noticed' this? I pointed it out to you more than a day earlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28780429
You're not paying attention. It's impossible to have a discussion.
Exactly! Since they messed up with Brexit and Trump i have been confidently ignoring every single poll that's emerged. I wonder what it would look like if our politicians did the same. It seems that the current government can only ever react to things.
Please look at the last 4 YouGov polls in the week before the Brexit vote[0]. Two show a very slim majority for Leave, and two had a very slim majority for Remain.
In the event, a very slim majority voted for Leave. Those polls were remarkably accurate for such a small sample size, and well within a reasonable margin of error (2-4 percentage points in that case).
You're confidently choosing to ignore useful data because you will only accept perfect data. But that doesn't exist.