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Comment by smoldesu | Hacker News Reader

The other day I heard someone say that Rivian intends to deliver 40,000 vehicles next year, total. Musk runs his mouth on a lot of stuff, but it's pretty hard to knock his manufacturing when he's got a 20x lead on the competition. Hell, I was blown away by how quickly Starlink went from concept to reality, but figures like these really help put the scale into perspective. It's like capitalism down to a science, for better and worse.

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Not to disagree,but for different perspective

1. How long has Tesla been manufacturing vs Rivian

2. How does Tesla compare to Toyota

I feel it's all apples and oranges both ways. They're all in different manufacturing maturity place

Tesla was founded in 2003, Rivian in 2009. So Tesla took five years to start Roadster production, while Rivian has taken 12 years until first customer deliveries. Maybe Rivian will ramp faster. Sam Korus tracks the numbers and so far Tesla is ramping faster than Ford, making it the fastest ramping car manufacturer in American history. I wouldn't be surprised if some Chinese companies could go faster. It is much faster than what Toyota did. They are very methodical, which is why they have almost zero pure EV sales.

> They're all in different manufacturing maturity place

That's true, but the electric car race began with the Model 3 and is going to continue to outpace Rivian 50x next year if the volume expectation are correct [on both sides]. Rivian coming out with these cars is unlikely to capture much of the market anyways, given they're both over $65k. It's like Rivian's 10 years behind Tesla in maturity (besides their range figures), and their only saving grace might be the Amazon electric delivery vehicle contract.

Established players can't produce these numbers for their own EV's so you believe a startup will?

Do people remember how much shit Tesla went through?

I think Rivian will take the startup approach and pack as much density into their battery, even if it means sacrificing a large chunk of their margin. The r1t is supposed to have a weight of 8500 pounds[0], so I can see a 150-200kwh battery being packed in there on the Max pack to achieve that range.

0: https://insideevs.com/news/536753/rivian-r1t-gvwr-heavy-duty...

That's the gross vehicle weight rating, which is the max weight of the vehicle including cargo. The R1T has a curb weight of ~7,000lbs[0] with the 135kWh battery. That is still as much as a Dually F-350. The 180kWh option would be heavier still and start eating into the payload capacity.

[0]https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1133704_review-rivian-r...

200kwh? that's a disaster then.

200Kwh * 40K = 8Gwh?!

that's unrealistic, battery production is the single most limiting factor for all EV's.

big batteries = low volumes

Yes, it's probably necessary if they wanna get near-400 miles on extended range. Even the F150E with extended range only has a 300 mile EPA with estimates of 170kwh[0], and the r1t doesn't look to be insanely more aerodynamic. It's indeed going to be a disaster, but Amazon wants a foot in the door regardless of how much it costs.

0: https://insideevs.com/news/508674/battery-capacity-ford-f150...

i happened to look up the latter question. Toyota does about 10M cars/year, so this is about 10% of toyota, which is way closer than i expected.

It's far far worse. Tesla is probably the only company in the world that produces\designs its own batteries, motors and electronics.

Most "competitors" are just buying batteries\electronics from a vendor and shoving it in.

Tesla partnered with Panasonic and created their own custom modules(2170), now they plan to do everything with the newly announced 4680(from raw materials to products).

They are truly unmatched.

Henry Ford created a factory "capable of taking in raw materials on one end and spitting out finished automobiles on the other". [0]

Not all automakers have done things that way though, and other automakers are able to complete with Ford. Vertical integration can sometimes be an asset, other times the "Not Invented Here" culture proves limiting. Tesla's had incredible success thus far, but we probably need a couple more decades to see if they maintain their first mover advantage or if other players end up being more agile and more successful.

0: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a23478147/ford-river-rouge...

Ford had years of domination, didn't it?

It is extremely hard to predict 15 years from now but the next five years?

There are no competitors(perhaps besides Chinese battery makers) everyone is still in early R&D\prototype phases.

Ford achieved the ore-to-assembly goal in 1927. General Motors become the highest volume automaker in the US starting in 1931. Ford's sold a ton of cars too though. My point is just that Ford did extreme vertical integration and were successful. But GM did things differently and that worked for them too.

Looks like some of this has been studied by Harvard Business School: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=45289

Anyhow, you tout Tesla's deep work in batteries, motors and electronics (and let's not forget glass, doors, seats and other areas where Tesla has decided not to out-source). I can see where another company might be the GM to Tesla's Ford - finding success buying some of the right bits and pieces rather than spending an insane amount of money (re-)inventing them for themselves.

I really really hope that we will have competition coming from VW, Toyota.

We need to advance the technology which is still not good enough for our global needs, but knowing where these two are.... I'm skeptical

Tesla has a lead now, but I wonder how long it'll hold up.

At some point electric drivetrains and batteries will be available in large quantities from suppliers just like gasoline motors and gearboxes are available now.

As soon as that is the case, there will be many dozens of different car models that compete with Tesla.

Teslas vertical integration is an advantage now, because they don't have to wait for suppliers to develop what they need. But once suppliers have caught up, I'm not sure if Teslas edge holds.

Yea seriously. Tesla is just a company with a lead but they are in a industry filled with tens of thousands more engineers who have suddenly become tasked with switching to EV design at a fast pace.

And yet forecasts say that only 50% of VW and BMW sales will come from EV by 2030 with tens of billions poured into conversion they say that it isn't possible to go any faster. And they are faster than other major players.

Ah yes, most companies just buy batteries from Panasonic and shove them in their cars, but the galaxy brains at Tesla instead buy batteries from Panasonic and shove them into “custom modules” which is clearly materially different.

Just to start, as of today Tesla is Panasonic's only automotive client. Panasonic talked recently about the need to get more auto clients for their cells but so far it's been just talk.

As to your dismissive "galaxy brains at Tesla": unlike Ford or GM or Toyota, Tesla does a lot of R&D in battery cells.

I know that because they are hiring tons of people for cell research and production: https://www.tesla.com/careers/search/?country=US&query=cell

I did similar searches in the past so I know that they've been hiring for cell research for years.

For contrast, despite GM claiming they make Ultium batteries, few months back I didn't find a single job post for cell engineering.

I also know that because Tesla has been sponsoring Canadian cell research lab led by Jeff Dahn.

This resulted in multiple patents awarded to Tesla.

Tesla also bought Grohman Engineering (which makes, among other things, robots that assemble battery packs), Maxwell (for their dry electrode technology) and a Canadian manufacturer of equipment for making battery cells.

Musk also talked how they work with every company that claims they have an improved cell technology and how they evaluate their cells.

There is no evidence that Ford or GM or Toyota made similar investments in batter cell and battery pack R&D and production.

Wrong. Tesla has custom designs from form factor to chemistry.

Panasonic was crucial at the begining with their own designed\made 18650. their role is shrinking fast

Tesla's expertise when it comes to batteries is unmatched in the auto-motive industry, no doubt about that.

Tesla is not using Panasonic at all for their new batteries.

Get a grip, Tesla fan. Your shares are doing fine without the reality distortion. People who buy cells from Panasonic directly are getting the exact same chemistry and form factor with which Telsa cars are equipped. Quoting from Tesla's own 10-Q filing, emphasis added.

"""Under our arrangement with Panasonic, we plan to purchase the full output from their production equipment at negotiated prices … Currently, we rely on suppliers such as Panasonic for these cells."""

Seriously, there is no shame in it. They are good batteries! They are made by Panasonic using Panasonic chemistry on Panasonic equipment, though.

You don't have to believe me but I don't own a tesla nor do I own Tesla stocks.

Tesla do have their own custom chemistry and doping, it is written all over the internet you're willing to read that.

TEsla has several patents and their own research group: https://www.scribd.com/document/440951044/Tesla-battery-pate...

https://www.scribd.com/document/424878572/J-Electrochem-Soc-...

just to name a few. to me you seem like a Tesla skeptic, unwilling to acknowledge their success

The patent and the chemistry you are trying to link to — by the way, Scribd is a scam, here is a link to the PDF[1] — is university research funded in part by Tesla.

1: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1149/2.0341813jes/pdf

Undoubtedly good chemistry research but doesn't have anything to do with the batteries that are actually in cars you can actually buy.

You're still trying to defend your position... sad.

Claiming Tesla is the same as VW which basically buys batteries and shoves them into existing chassis\frames, is a joke.

Tesla produces most of the worlds batteries:

https://www.mining.com/muskmobiles-running-rivals-off-the-ro...

In their own factories, which automaker has this level of integration?

Tesla has the best battery longevity metrics according to thousands of tested cars: https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat...

Tesla is the only company with vast\robust charging network: https://hbr.org/2021/01/how-teslas-charging-stations-left-ot...

Tesla is the only company seriously investing in their own battery facilities. boots on the ground, working facilities.

Now tell me how Tesla is just like any other player in the EV space again?

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