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Comment by belorn | Hacker News Reader

One major issue was that in the beginning of this year we started with one dose, then went to a second dose a few months later, and then a third dose is starting to be recommended now a few months after that.

There are some serious evidence to back this up. A study done around early summer found that only about 50% of those that have taken two doses had any detectable traces of a defense, which was one of the reason that a third dose had to be added. By winter we don't know how effective the 2 dose or 3 dose will be.

To me that is where the focus of skepticism should be right now.

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> There are some serious evidence to back this up. A study done around early summer found that only about 50% of those that have taken two doses had any detectable traces of a defense, which was one of the reason that a third dose had to be added. By winter we don't know how effective the 2 dose or 3 dose will be.

One study, going against countless others showing that the vaccines are highly effective.

The readily available data speaks for itself. Highly vaccinated populations are experiencing much slower transmission and hospitalization rates than their poorly vaccinated counterparts.

Also, we didn't start with one dose. Both mRNA vaccines were two-dose regimens from the day they started clinical trials last summer.

We don't have countless studies on how effective the vaccines over a longer period of time, and especially for those with two doses. Most seems to been done around 3 months, through most conclusions is based on simulations from observation data gathered by other vaccines such as smallpox, measles, mumps, and rubella. The observed half-life of neutralizing titers was 65 days for mRNA vaccines.

The evidence will be found in the future when we have more data. Most expectation is that while the protection will be significant lower but that there might be some longer term benefits. Highly vaccinated populations that has taken the vaccine in the last 3-4 months are going to be currently more protected than those that aren't, but that doesn't say much if we need a new vaccination this winter, next summer or the year after that.

It would be interesting to see a study done on those early groups of people that received the last dose of vaccine in 2020 during the summer and see how much protection that they still have now this fall in 2021. Got any links to such studies?

Science changes as new information becomes available, that's why it's so great, it's self-correcting on a long enough timescale. If you want a 100% verifiable, stake-your-life-on-it-this-will-never-ever-change, answer, science is not for you. Using this inherent property of science as a way to deny it is disingenuous at best.

You’ve got it backwards. It’s precisely because science is ever-changing that censorship of specific views is harmful. See, for example, the Soviet Union’s bet on Lysenkoism.

I'm not really sure what you're trying to say here, it doesn't seem relevant to my comment.

My point is that using the fact that science changes as new information comes in, thus the answer science gave us yesterday may be different from the answer science gives us today.

The parent comment is using the changing conditions around vaccines, the fact that they said 1 shot, then 2 shots, now there is talk of boosters, as evidence that it was irrelevant and should be ignored. My point is that must expect any answer science provides to potentially change. If people want an answer that is unchanging, science cannot give it to them.

I never said vaccines should be ignored, but the fact that we do know that the neutralizing titers for mRNA vaccines has a half-time, which is known to be correlated to the effectiveness of the vaccine. People who sells those vaccines as a final solution is not following what the research actually say. The big unknowns is how much of a falloff the protection has, how quickly, and if there will be any lasting protection after the neutralizing titers are gone.

I find it a bit interesting that in about 3000 comments, very few if any are from actually doctors or researcher that advocate in favor of the block. In general it seems to be quite few that are even advocating it as a final solution to the pandemic, but rather as a tool to reduce symptoms for people who later catch the virus.

Much more nuance that the original post, makes sense. I don't think you conveyed this in the original comment, which I conflated with effectively "They keep changing what they say, therefore they are lying, therefore I am not getting vaccinated". Granted you didn't say that, I believe that's the way I interpreted it due to hearing the same argument from a bunch of different folks. Thanks for the clarity!

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