I bet this goes the other way, especially at the exec level. That is, the best indicator of startup success is past startup success. Certainly funding is easier, building the team is easier, and the emotional decision making is easier.

The phrase serial entrepreneur is often used.

Shouldn't be this more like 0.01%? Two startups as an early employee and hitting almost 50M. Wow. just wow.

The problem with your assumption is that you think everyone is equally poorly skilled in choosing startups to join.