Yup. I also think the other players underestimate how that mind share would play out on amateur sys admin tasks content on the web.

"Real" sysadmins may look down on amateur self hosters dabbling...but they still use google. And if the google all seeing eye sees a lot of ubuntu tinkering among amateurs that's what they'll show to the sys admins

When .net core came out and we decided to move to Linux, we asked our devs if they were familiar with a specific distro. All of the ones who had used Linux were familiar with Ubuntu, less than 10% had tried fedora. We made the decision then and there, and we're happily surprised when we compared the support packages. Not that Ubuntu is perfect (they love strong arming their house I'm house tech like cloud init, snaps) but they're better than red hat and have full commercial support.