You can always find a comparison that is extreme in either direction. There is nothing that suggests that the outcome in Sweden would have been that of Norway, if the policies had been more similar. It’s possible, but far from certain.

Also, given how many deaths are of extremely vulnerable elderly (many of which would have died from any cold, or within a year regardless), “total deaths” are perhaps not the best measure of success. It will show how well the disease was kept out of living facilities for the very old, mostly (which in Sweden was “not very well”). The difference in how elderly care is operated in Sweden and Norway is pretty big, and that I think is a policy failure that should be looked at.