Compared to Norway the number of covid deaths so far is about tenfold higher. How that counts as success is beyond me.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
Why compare those against each other? Because these four nations are close to each other geographically[0] and when it comes to the climate[1], rather similar culturally[2], and economically similar too in that the populations are by and large comparatively "well off".
All other things equal (or rather similar at least), the differences in COVID deaths are likely in a larger part due to differences in public policy regarding the direct COVID response in particular and/or health care more generally.
This is just guess work (a lot of people did), of course, but I've yet to read any other plausible explanations for these major differences.
[0] Neighboring each other, with Norway (~150 deaths/million) west, Finland (~190) east and Denmark (~450) south of Sweden (~1450). Schleswig-Holstein, the German Federal State bordering Denmark to the South with a sizable Danish minority living there also has a similar rate (~580) to Denmark. (German rate is ~1110).
[1] Weather and temperature have been identified as correlating strongly with COVID spread, not just because of how well the virus can survive in different temperatures, but also because of how humans will behave in different weather conditions (stay inside or go out).
[2] These nations historically developed close to each other, and occupied each other a lot of times. E.g. Norway only became fully independent from Sweden in 1905. These nations have a lot of shared cultural heritage which still informs a lot of the culture today.
This is why anyone should be extremely wary of comparing "deaths per million" statistics across nations, since the statistic is 1) not standardized and 2) not always trustworthy.
Counting excess mortality isn't as good, but at least it's normalized across the board, so you can make some kind of meaningful comparison.
They have the same numbers...
Fun fact: Norway was one of the only country in Europe to have strict closed border. https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/stricter-border-contro...
Both Denmark and Norway later issued rules that allowed Swedes to cross between the nations if they lived in low infection rate parts of Sweden. It was mostly people from Stockholm that could not pass.
On the other hand there is also different level of trust between citizens and the government. But there are probably more variables.
We might have a slightly higher prevalence of some random genetic feature in Czechia that makes our death rate higher.
Overall on the map of Europe, it seems that death rates varied wildly and not according to usual patterns. For example, you would expect higher death rate in less developed southern Italy than in Lombardy.
A good reminder that people need to be patient and stop prematurely declaring victory or defeat.
Here’s the things I noticed that were clearly different between the two countries:
1. The rules were clear from the start and didn’t change much. FHM said from the beginning that the virus is here to stay and set the rules so that they are sustainable (most importantly: schools were never closed). There was no screw-unscrew-screw-… loop
2. Many more people worked from home here than in CZ. I don’t know what to attribute this to, it can be because Swedes are generally better acquainted with technology or that there are more jobs that can be done from home in Sweden.
3. People actually follow the rules (for the most part..there still were student parties and such). This can be an effect of people trusting their politicians and the government agencies but maybe just a different mentality. I still remember that during my visit to Prague people at the Billa supermarket at the Prague train station were absolutely not keeping distance and were touching bagels (rohlíky :-)) without any gloves. Masks and lockdowns won’t save you then…
4. People are generally much fitter here. You won’t see the typical Czech beer belly, in general everyone keeps themselves in shape and eats quite well.
Contrary to what many might think the level of healthcare is about the same in my experience.
I’m really no Tegnell fanboy, many things about him irk me a lot (his constant picking on other countries the most) and I wish the Swedish government took a more active role sooner rather than let FHM steer everything for about 9 months, but in general I think the Swedish strategy was good.
Also, given how many deaths are of extremely vulnerable elderly (many of which would have died from any cold, or within a year regardless), “total deaths” are perhaps not the best measure of success. It will show how well the disease was kept out of living facilities for the very old, mostly (which in Sweden was “not very well”). The difference in how elderly care is operated in Sweden and Norway is pretty big, and that I think is a policy failure that should be looked at.
All the other scandinavian countries had policies and outcomes like norway.
- Sweden: ~1450 deaths per million
Population: ~10.2 million
Density: ~25 people/km^2
Urbanization: 88%
Rates compared: 10x Norway, 8x Finland, 3x Denmark
- Denmark: ~450 deaths per million
Population: ~5.8 million
Density: ~137 people/km^2
Urbanization: 88%
Rates compared: 3x Norway, 2.5x Finland
- Finland: ~190 deaths per million
Population: ~5.5 million
Density: ~18 people/km^2
Urbanization: 86%
Rates compared: 1.2x Norway
- Norway: ~150 deaths per million
Population: ~5.3 million
Density: ~15 people/km^2
Urbanization: 83%I though we had really gotten over this?
Then again, I thought we had gotten over the idea of Sweden’s tenfold death rate being good in any sense, as well…
For some reason more people died in Norway than in Sweden in the couple years before the pandemic, then Sweden caught up during the pandemic. They are tied over the last four years.
More people may have died of covid in Sweden because there were more old vulnerable people in Sweden.
[0] https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201116/Study-compares-de...
How is 19 million dead soldiers from Allied forces counted as success and win in WW2 is also beyond me.