I think this is right. This is a major blow to Apple. If you look at the 10 games on the app store, revenue goes up by 1.8x for every placement. That meant that there are a few VERY profitable games, and it drops off very quickly. My bet is that its the same for non-game apps. If the App store is that tilted, then there are few developers representing most of the revenue, and they can afford setting up an alternative payment process, and the reduced fees for these companies will be significant. They have a lot of incentives to do it. If Apple loses half of the top 40 apps, to alternative payment systems, it will mean a significant amount of revenue lost.