Hacker News Reader

Comment by ddxxdd | Hacker News Reader

Last time I checked, the top 3 countries in terms of vaccination rates are also the top 3 countries in terms of number of active covid cases.

Israel is #1 in vaccination rates and #1 in daily cases.

View on HN

I don't know where you getting that information, last time I checked Israel wasn't even in the top10 countries.

Last week Portugal was number 2, and our cases have been dropping (which is a good sign for winter, though it's still early), also deaths and hospitalizations are nowhere near pre-vaccine numbers.

We even had breakthrough cases in homes and care centers for the elderly, the majority seem to be mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, very few deaths.

According to https://ourworldindata.org/ Israel is #4 in COVID cases right now (856.81/M) and #5 in vaccine doses per 100 people (163.74)

Well maybe vaccine doses per 100 people isn't the best benchmark, especially if they are already giving 3rd doses - it's way more important the share of full vaccination of the total population, because the goal is to get the imune system primed.

The reality is that Israel only has 63% of their population fully vaccinated, even if they keep giving extra doses, a large slice is still not vaccinated (people under 59 apparently).

Highly suspect: I heard that they count anyone without three jabs as "unvaccinated." that might not be israel and it might be two jabs, apologies on unreliability. I'm putting this out here because I hope someone can disprove or verify it.

Cases in Portugal are staying stable neither growing or diminishing. Looking at the curve for deaths there seems to be no correlation between deaths and the vaccination program.

https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2021-09-10-Covid-19.-O-oitav...

I can't even take your comment seriously.

Look at the active cases graph starting at 8 Aug and the line to latest 10 of Sep. In approximately 45,000 cases there is a variation of -/+ 2000 is that not basically a straight line?

Also what I mean by there is no correlation between deaths and the vaccination program, and there, I could have been a bit clear in my explanation, is the following:

Again looking at the active cases diagram between 3 of March and 15 of April you get a massive peak and a massive drop. That is the expected behavior of mathematical models, and a runways virus propagating to several hosts. The vaccination program as seen in the graph here: "A que ritmo estamos a vacinar?" https://www.publico.pt/interactivo/vacina-covid-19

started in 28 Dec linear grow, a peak 11 July where more people on holidays have the time do take the vaccine and continues in for with a large intensity of 60,000 this 8 Sept.

So I am calling attention to very quick and strong record of active cases seen within 2 to 3 months in the active cases diagram versus the gradual vaccination program.

>Look at the active cases graph starting at 8 Aug and the line to latest 10 of Sep. In approximately 45,000 cases there is a variation of -/+ 2000 is that not basically a straight line?

Look at the daily active cases, does it look like a straight line?

>So I am calling attention to very quick and strong record of active cases seen within 2 to 3 months in the active cases diagram versus the gradual vaccination program.

Why do you dismiss the number of active cases when you're talking about deaths? Isn't the fact that we have more than double the active cases an indicator that less infected people are dying?

Because what you're doing is simply assuming the virus mortality rate remained constant, and all the extra cases are just cases that weren't identified in the past, and you have nothing to back this claim.

Look at case fatality rate in Portugal:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

It dropped off a cliff from 2.9% at its highest to about 0.5% today.

I used the same graph as you but superimposed India ( 13% vaccinations only) pandemic behavior is a copy slight shifted in time 2-3 months:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

Why? The graph under "Total de mortes" shows that the number of fatalities is higher right now than last year (when no one was vaccinated).

We don't know yet if the clearly seasonal winter outbreak will be the same as last year (or worse).

First the graph of newly daily cases is trending downward since July, why did the he say they are not diminishing? If you compare to last year they were trending upward.

If this is going to keep going down, sideways, or up we have no idea.

About the "Total de Mortes", today you have more then double the amount of active cases, why are you ignoring that?

>We don't know yet if the clearly seasonal winter outbreak will be the same as last year (or worse).

Yes, but to say vaccines aren't doing anything it's absurd.

I was talking about the last few weeks. That is the almost straight line you see in the graph. You know what the curve looks like, and almost a copy? The curve in India one the countries with the smallest percentage of vacinnated people:

Have a look (13% vaccinated...):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/india-covid-c...

That must have been a while ago, because Israel is nowhere near top in vaccination rate anymore. They had a fast rollout, but are now stuck at around 61%.. Meanwhile, western Europe is around 80-90% vaccinated

Europe: 102.58 doses per 100

Israel: 163.74 doses per 100 (#5 in the world)

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

Doses don't mean much if a large portion of the population have taken none.

Not to mention Janssen vaccine is a single dose and it's being widely used in some EU countries, which renders that measurement even more "useless" (in the sense that it doesn't give an accurate picture of the reality of the vaccination programs)

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=FRA shows more like 60%-70% for the total population (I turned on more countries than France).

Are your numbers percent of adults or including people that have recovered from infection or something?

Government numbers in France show 80.2% today ("The figure gives the share of the population over the age of 12 that are fully vaccinated (all required doses")

We crossed 60% on July 29, and 70% on August 20

Yeah, "over the age of 12", that isn't 80% fully vaccinated, it's 80% of over 12s fully vaccinated. Which is a useful measure of administrative effectiveness when the vaccine is not being given to people under 12, but it isn't 80% of the total population.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com