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Comment by kristopolous | Hacker News Reader

Historically speaking these one off stock recommendations from HN have really been fantastic. I just sold them too early and didn't put enough down.

Like that one comment I remember in 2011 recommending to buy and hold Bitcoin for 10 years. Right. I bought. Didn't hold. Same deal with Tesla.

I want something that takes $5,000 from me, invests it, then makes me forget about it, then 10 years later sends me a letter and says "you forgot about this, 10 years ago you did such and such, here you go"

You can do fractional buy from the US on that instrument in Sofi (not in RH) btw for those who were looking to put only like $50 in. If you are doing an onboard there to invest in this, email me (check my bio) and I'll send my referral bonus link for signup (it's $25 for stocks + $10 withdrawable cash currently). Free money...

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> I just sold them too early and didn't put enough down.

Mood; I bought ETH and sold when I thought it couldn't go any higher. I've bought and sold Tesla and Apple a couple of times thinking it couldn't possibly go any higher. Still made my money back and then some though, so I can't complain.

As for your wish, index funds are your friend, low risk as well. I've got some money safely in a savings account (effectively no return on investment), some in 'play' stonks (-2.19% to +70% return on investment per year, 2020 was really good), and some in a managed investment fund that just spreads things around according to a risk profile (don't have a lot of numbers for that one, but +13.29% so far this year).

This is not financial advice, I'm confident we'll have a market crash again within a year or two, and when investing you need to manage risk; index fund (following e.g. the S&P 500) are relatively safe investments, trading stocks is fine if you don't panic sell, but options and going 'all in' on single stocks is dangerous and not recommended. Don't invest money you can't afford to lose. Don't beat yourself up for not getting in on things earlier.

I have never seen a bull market like this.

I guess it's a combination of cheap money, government buying debt, government giving away money like a drunken hedge fund guy who's date backed out. (couldn't use sailor), and no one thought businesses could survive through Zoom?

I have watched professionals wait until the last Retail investor puts in his last dime, and poof--they pull out.

What's weird is I don't even think we are close to that pullout by the big guys.

The wealth created in this bull market must a world record? (percentage wise)

Personally, I wouldn't put ASML in the buy bucket for very long though. The stock has already more than tripled during the last year, mostly off the back of the big producers announcing enormous expansions of production capacity which is great for ASML. This Industry is cyclical though so in a couple of years once those factories are opened, there will be a large overcapacity leading to scaling down capex.

I wouldn't be surprised if the current chip shortage becomes chronic for the next decade. The number of uses of chips are skyrocketing as products that are now "smart" compete to be even smarter.

AI applications are processing heavy and applications are growing exponentially.

The competition in the highest end chips is fierce now that Ford, Toyota, etc. are competing against Tesla which has its own custom chips.

Augmented reality in the next several years will severely push demand for the highest performance, lowest energy using chips. Which tend to be the top of the line chips.

Governments around the world have realized chip production is an existential capability. The US alone will be pouring money into catching up and matching TSMC, Samsung, etc. And those companies will respond by prioritizing progress even more.

My money is on their not being a downturn in chip demand, or over capacity, for a very long time. Maybe not for decades.

That's a strong statement, but I think computing has turned a corner.

The shortage is not in high end used for AI or self driving car computation, it’s in low end chips like power management, audio codecs, and microcontrollers

That's true.

I think the competition to create smarter products is across the board though. Once a product category has chips, it can be made smarter than the competitors. So its game on at every level of manufacturing.

"Smarter" not necessarily meaning AI, but can be AI.

You could have said that about Microsoft stock in 1990, Amazon in 1999, Google in 2011, Apple in about 2005... And about lots of forgotten flops as well.

The future is unpredictable and the best payoffs are going to inherently be controversial and have a larger risk

Aside from ASML, what is the recommendation at this point in time?

I’m feeling gold. It hasn’t moved for a decade and has all the reasons to move in the next one as people escape the currently overvalued overprinted mess we made for something real and tangible again.

https://inflationchart.com/spx-in-gold/?time=20%20years&show...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indica...

“Gold is money, everything else is credit”. -J.P. Morgan, 1912

I can help you here. Let's discuss. I accept eth or bc. 3f42d

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