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malloc2048

I've recently bought several shares of ASML at about €670, as I can't imagine them going down anytime soon.

They seem to have a pretty much monopoly on the most advanced chipmanufacturing process and respective machines.

ASML stock is also already going up for years and years. I wish I'd bought them earlier.

Although ASML should be our Dutch pride, it's a company we hardly hear about in the Dutch press. Probably because their tech is relatively hard to understand.

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They don’t have a monopoly on EUV, although they have the most mature production systems, albeit still at low volumes. The core technology and research behind EUV was actually performed by US Department of Energy labs, who then shared their work under agreements with a small number of industry partners, including but not exclusively ASML, back in 1999 (https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort/). This is also why ASML has a US presence and must source components from the US. There are other companies playing in this space, and while several are pursuing EUV, some are also using alternate approaches to fulfilling the same demand (like Canon’s nanoimprint). I would characterize ASML as temporarily having a long lead on EUV, but that can change in the span of 5-10 years.

They have a monopoly in EUV lithography. If you might have competition in 5-10 years, then you have a monopoly.

5-10 years is a long time in web development, but not in strategy terms.

There is not going to be a competitor to ASML in 5 years. There might be alternatives on the horizon in 10 years, but they will very much still have a monopoly on EUV lithography.

Living in Eindhoven & bought a couple of years ago as my first ever stock purchase, went to the yearly shareholder meeting in Veldhoven which was super low-key with a very homely vibe & some super long-term holders (20+ years). Still my most profitable purchase as well.

Although ASML should be our Dutch pride, it's a company we hardly hear about in the Dutch press.

As another Dutch person the main stream media pretty much covers big ASML news. The CEO and CFO also regularely give interviews.

As a UK person who frequents HN, I've heard of them 5 times in the past 2 weeks.

I've heard of ASML for over a decade now - Dutch mainstream press might ignore them, but specialized sites like tweakers.net and partners (it's been one of my daily visits for nearly 20 years) have reported on them for ages (https://tweakers.net/zoeken/?keyword=asml#filter:q1bKTq0szy9...)

As for the stonks, it looks really healthy, only ever having gone up over the past 20 years. Significantly in the last two years though. But I think it's a safe bet given there's little competition on the market at their level. I'm sure e.g. China is working on a competitor, but they have their work cut out for them - even if they have the designs for these machines.

Wouldn’t the next few years already be priced into the stock price?

efficient market theory is astrology for males, in a world where astrology and trading was gendered.

the commonality being that neither produce peer reviewed reproducible results.

nothing is priced in. things can be undervalued with known public information. market appetite can also further overvalue something with a new normal for price to equity ratios.

Only if you believe in the efficient market hypothesis

"Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again." [0]

[0] if you know, you know

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/eberem/ever...

That quote should be in a movie. Pretty awesome. Also wrong :-)

Counter point: beginning of 2021, for weeks I was wondering why the markets were not reacting to Covid.

Only when travel restrictions were introduced, and only when they were introduced to the US, the market started taking notice.

Does the market extrapolate future earnings and macro economic trends, sure. Do some people have secrete insights beyond that? Sure. But I'd say the market as a whole is pretty stupid and reactive.

Agreed, I was trading VIX futures calls and /ES puts around that time and was equally mystified that markets were as frothy as ever. It was definitely a very wild time to be speculating.

It's priced in at the confidence level the market has. If you're more confident than the market then it's an opportunity to make money. (You also have to be right, of course.)

Hehe my dad bought 500 ASML shares in '08 at roughly €15.

And then he sold for €45 three years later.

Great decision, he tripled his money

Sadly the most efficient way to get attention of the press is to say "I support Sinterklaas" on Twitter.

I'm assuming this is a jab at Zwarte Piet, which is a lot more controversial than Sinterklaas himself.

Yes, that was imprecise from me.

You should try imagining harder.

Historically speaking these one off stock recommendations from HN have really been fantastic. I just sold them too early and didn't put enough down.

Like that one comment I remember in 2011 recommending to buy and hold Bitcoin for 10 years. Right. I bought. Didn't hold. Same deal with Tesla.

I want something that takes $5,000 from me, invests it, then makes me forget about it, then 10 years later sends me a letter and says "you forgot about this, 10 years ago you did such and such, here you go"

You can do fractional buy from the US on that instrument in Sofi (not in RH) btw for those who were looking to put only like $50 in. If you are doing an onboard there to invest in this, email me (check my bio) and I'll send my referral bonus link for signup (it's $25 for stocks + $10 withdrawable cash currently). Free money...

Aside from ASML, what is the recommendation at this point in time?

I’m feeling gold. It hasn’t moved for a decade and has all the reasons to move in the next one as people escape the currently overvalued overprinted mess we made for something real and tangible again.

https://inflationchart.com/spx-in-gold/?time=20%20years&show...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indica...

“Gold is money, everything else is credit”. -J.P. Morgan, 1912

I can help you here. Let's discuss. I accept eth or bc. 3f42d

Personally, I wouldn't put ASML in the buy bucket for very long though. The stock has already more than tripled during the last year, mostly off the back of the big producers announcing enormous expansions of production capacity which is great for ASML. This Industry is cyclical though so in a couple of years once those factories are opened, there will be a large overcapacity leading to scaling down capex.

I wouldn't be surprised if the current chip shortage becomes chronic for the next decade. The number of uses of chips are skyrocketing as products that are now "smart" compete to be even smarter.

AI applications are processing heavy and applications are growing exponentially.

The competition in the highest end chips is fierce now that Ford, Toyota, etc. are competing against Tesla which has its own custom chips.

Augmented reality in the next several years will severely push demand for the highest performance, lowest energy using chips. Which tend to be the top of the line chips.

Governments around the world have realized chip production is an existential capability. The US alone will be pouring money into catching up and matching TSMC, Samsung, etc. And those companies will respond by prioritizing progress even more.

My money is on their not being a downturn in chip demand, or over capacity, for a very long time. Maybe not for decades.

That's a strong statement, but I think computing has turned a corner.

The shortage is not in high end used for AI or self driving car computation, it’s in low end chips like power management, audio codecs, and microcontrollers

That's true.

I think the competition to create smarter products is across the board though. Once a product category has chips, it can be made smarter than the competitors. So its game on at every level of manufacturing.

"Smarter" not necessarily meaning AI, but can be AI.

You could have said that about Microsoft stock in 1990, Amazon in 1999, Google in 2011, Apple in about 2005... And about lots of forgotten flops as well.

The future is unpredictable and the best payoffs are going to inherently be controversial and have a larger risk

> I just sold them too early and didn't put enough down.

Mood; I bought ETH and sold when I thought it couldn't go any higher. I've bought and sold Tesla and Apple a couple of times thinking it couldn't possibly go any higher. Still made my money back and then some though, so I can't complain.

As for your wish, index funds are your friend, low risk as well. I've got some money safely in a savings account (effectively no return on investment), some in 'play' stonks (-2.19% to +70% return on investment per year, 2020 was really good), and some in a managed investment fund that just spreads things around according to a risk profile (don't have a lot of numbers for that one, but +13.29% so far this year).

This is not financial advice, I'm confident we'll have a market crash again within a year or two, and when investing you need to manage risk; index fund (following e.g. the S&P 500) are relatively safe investments, trading stocks is fine if you don't panic sell, but options and going 'all in' on single stocks is dangerous and not recommended. Don't invest money you can't afford to lose. Don't beat yourself up for not getting in on things earlier.

I have never seen a bull market like this.

I guess it's a combination of cheap money, government buying debt, government giving away money like a drunken hedge fund guy who's date backed out. (couldn't use sailor), and no one thought businesses could survive through Zoom?

I have watched professionals wait until the last Retail investor puts in his last dime, and poof--they pull out.

What's weird is I don't even think we are close to that pullout by the big guys.

The wealth created in this bull market must a world record? (percentage wise)

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