Hacker News Reader

Comment by mywittyname | Hacker News Reader

I wonder how many of these people also understand, and are willing to accept the fact, that defending Taiwan against an invasion will almost certainly involve successful attacks on USA soil.

China is in a whole other league from the adversaries that the country has faced in generations. The have a world class air force, navy, and ground force complete with advanced aircraft, tanks, aircraft carriers, submarines, missiles, satellites, etc.

Given how poorly the country fared in the pandemic, I'm not so sure the country could hold together in the event of an attack. There's a reasonable chance that Americans will use the opportunity to destroy the government from within.

I support Taiwanese independence, but I'm not sure I support it with my life.

View on HN

I disagree to the threat on the American mainland. A Chinese assault on Taiwan would have to be an all out invasion against a standing army of 170,000[1]. Plus I count about 6 million citizens of capable fighting age, Taiwanese batteries at the ocean[2], plus the eyes-in-the-sky of Japan, Australia, America, India, and quite possibly Vietnam. To invade you would need at least a million, possibly more. If the USA etc. saw that kind of preparation and launch, all hell would break loose. China doesn't have to just worry about a street by street battle for Taiwan, while the media rains holy hell in High Definition TV. Not many will just sit by, and it won't be a quick victory, nor do I expect India and Vietnam to not take a shot or two at a Chinese frigate.

All that to say, that's a lot of money, death, destruction, and for what? China is a capitalist country now, and they really like the money flowing in. An invasion of Taiwan could disrupt the spigot and cause another Tiananmen Square.

1] https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/taiwan/#mil...

2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-i...

> I'm not so sure the country could hold together in the event of an attack

I'm not American, but if anything I would think that nothing would unify the US like the threat of an external invader. I have a hard time thinking people would care about who's democrat or who's republican if a foreign nation is dropping paratroopers in your neighborhood.

> There's a reasonable chance that Americans will use the opportunity to destroy the government from within.

I seriously doubt it. Even the most fervent, gun-loving, militant libertarians realize that sabotaging your own government during a war is not in your self interest.

> I support Taiwanese independence, but I'm not sure I support it with my life.

If the US declares war, it doesn't really matter. It's not like the US involvement in WW2 or Vietnam was put to a referendum, if your country is at war, you are at war, unless you have enough money to flee the country: but realistically a war between China in the US would be a world war, or at the very least (best case) a Nato - China war, which is why it's _extremely_ unlikely to happen. Neither the US nor China has anything to gain from an all out war. And even if China is a formidable opponent, it would certainly tank their entire economy.

> I'm not American, but if anything I would think that nothing would unify the US like the threat of an external invader. I have a hard time thinking people would care about who's democrat or who's republican if a foreign nation is dropping paratroopers in your neighborhood.

This is a great point. Look at how united America was after 9/11. George W. Bush's approval rating soared. While politics are bitterly divided here, when it comes to an external threat, those divisions will still get put aside (at least for a while). Not much unites a country like a (non-civil) war.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com