Comment by h4x0r12345 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by h4x0r12345 | Hacker News Reader

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I did answer your question with another question, but that was perhaps too subtle for you.

I do not know what percentage the US economy may or may not have shrunk by. It is impossible for me (or probably anyone else) to give an exact percentage.

Don't focus too narrowly on the two examples that I just randomly thought of. Try to see the bigger picture. Broadly, over the last 25 years, much of the US economy has shifted overseas, not only to China. US infrastructure is crumbling.

Yes the US is a "service based" economy, meaning arguably fake bullshit jobs. It's a fake foundation for an economy where everyone is living on borrowed money, due for a major correction, a massive shock causing the house of cards to collapse.

The inflation adjusted index price is one piece of evidence that the US economy may be due for a severe correction, possibly worse than 2008.

Interest rates have been practically zero for more than 10 years. That is unsustainable as a permanent workaround for fundamental systemic issues. It's a house of cards.

> I did answer your question with another question, but that was perhaps too subtle for you.

that's called "dodging the question"

>Try to see the bigger picture. Broadly, over the last 25 years, much of the US economy has shifted overseas, not only to China. US infrastructure is crumbling.

The problem is that the points you bring up don't have any numbers behind them, so it's impossible to know their actual impact. You have two points. I can bring up two counter-points: growth of tech companies, and the fracking boom. I guess we're even now and US is alright?

>Yes the US is a "service based" economy, meaning arguably fake bullshit jobs

elaborate on this. Just because someone isn't working in a widget factory or a coal mine, it means that his job is bullshit? If companies are willing to pay people to do something, there's a very good chance that they're adding value, even if they're not participating in production directly.

>It's a fake foundation for an economy where everyone is living on borrowed money, due for a major correction, a massive shock causing the house of cards to collapse.

Well if you check household debt to gdp ratio you'll see that it's significantly deflated since 2008, so I guess we're actually fine then?

>The inflation adjusted index price is one piece of evidence that the US economy may be due for a severe correction, possibly worse than 2008.

Dunno man, if your "inflation adjusted" GDP numbers are to be believed, then the correction has already happened (or is still underway). A 10%-20% is generally considered to be the range for a "correction".

> that's called "dodging the question"

That is an immature non-intellectual response. I am done with this thread. Have a good one.

We've banned this account for violating the site guidelines.

Could you please not create accounts to do that with? We're trying for a different sort of website.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

OK, wait. The original claim was that the inflation-adjusted SP500 has never recovered to its level in 2000. I said that M3 wasn't actually a measure of inflation. You responded that 1) yes it was (upthread a ways), and 2) "The inflation adjusted index price is one piece of evidence that the US economy may be due for a severe correction, possibly worse than 2008."

But if the SP500 (measured by M3) is below where it was in 2000 by a factor of 3 or so (eyeballing the chart in the article), and if M3 is a valid measure of inflation, then how is the inflation-adjusted index price saying that we're due for a severe correction?

Your arguments contradict themselves.

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