I work in an adjacent space, and have been encouraged by an investor to push into the reduced emissions and avoided emissions sector. I’m yet to decide, but a few factors are currently dissuading me:

1. The assumptions behind forestry and soil offsets on closer inspection can seem a bit stretched.

2. An offset creates revenue for the person creating the offsets - which money is then spent on things which have their own carbon intensity - eg fuel or a vehicle or whatever. So there’s ultimately no offset.

3. Being able to offset your carbon emissions has unpredictable consequences. I remember seeing some study which showed people who bought a Macdonald’s salad were likely to reward themselves with a burger. I can see how I’d offset a flight and then piously reward myself with a steak later.

4. Companies buying offsets open themselves to reputational risk associated with the quality of the offsets. Is it worth the risk?

There seem to be a bunch of other reasons why offsets are questionable but those are my four reasons for not going into this space.

[Edit: I added reason 4].