Like you, I have properly set up DKIM and SPF and blah blah.
I also have a 12 year "clean" IP from he.net.
Sometimes gmail will mark something I send as spam that is, like yours, a reply to their user and is a recipient that I have a years long history of corresponding with.
That's frustrating but what really makes me angry is that there is no indication given that this occurs. Why can't google send a proper bounce or warning message ... or even an error code that I could at least see in my logs ?
In the arms race between spammers and (providers) are error indications exploited in some way ?
Or is google just being lazy ?