I find doubt/skepticism like this unimportant & irrelevant. I am far more interested in a Tim Orielly style "Follow the Alpha Geeks" mentality, of mining the scene for what is interesting & empowering & novel, understanding contributions & possibilities.
Deno brings two main things that seem undeniably critical & without peer:
1. Fantastic rust integration. Node has neon & napi-rs, but neither of these present as rust-first & readily available extension point, to replicate what node did: be the incredibly super successful bridge between the native platform & the javascript language. Whatever success Rust has will strengthen & alloy Deno's position.
2. Unparalleled web platform support. Always bet on the web. The web is everywhere, it's platform is excellent & healthy & robust, some last cracks of missing capabilities are being filled in. Deno presents as a possible server-side desktop-side web environment in a way nothing else does. Whatever success the web has will strengthen & alloy Deno's position.
Fretting about where in the adoption curve something is is uninteresting to me, a geek. I would rather focus on the thing, know it, assess it's potential, see others assessments, & make my own projections of usability & adoption, than look about for signs. Hopefully the brilliant things will have their due day.