IPCC: Sixth Assessment Report
ipcc.ch
ipcc.ch
I almost took you seriously ;-D.
Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1963) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_Nuclear_Test_Ban_Tre...
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (1968) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferat...
SALT I / ABMT (1969) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Arms_Limitation_Ta...
That non proliferation thing isn't going too well.
If the 60s had turned into "everyone develops or buys a nuke", we'd be living in a very different world today (if at all).
It's impossible to interpret this in any other way as that emissions need to be massively reduced within the next couple of years.
Of course, then the cabinet fell in January for completely different reasons, and instead of taking responsibility for that they've been acting in-place until a new coalition is formed. For which they've been dragging their feet (the technically-former prime minister Rutte is on record with saying they're basically free to do whatever because "they can't kick us out any more"). So drunk on nothing-to-lose power they've decided to ignore the fact that they have been ordered by Dutch court of law to do something about the emissions. This is not just my opinion by the way, there's an actual interview where they say that meeting the criteria of the ruling is not a top priority. Because who cares about rule of law? Not the Dutch prime minister, apparently.
Since the pandemic, my personal food waste is finally near zero. In a nutshell, switched to mostly bulk foods, pressure cooker, baking.
Unfortunately, it looks like these won't be published in time for COP26 in Glasgow later this year.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6...
and yet so far it's just a dummy PDF with just "TEST PDF - Please Replace".
Edit: It's up now
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#SPM
which besides being already up is called "AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis". It also says the PDF is supposed to be "39 pages".
Sorry to sound shallow, but IMO they do need a bit more Hollywood to get people's attention. But then again, the deniers would say "over-dramatic".
If they used PR language and used big, visual metaphors, the deniers would nitpick every little detail of it. See how the grand statements of Al Gore's documentary are still used nowadays to prove the climate is not collapsing at the moment. (You can even scroll down here to see it happen).
Flashy educational presentations can quickly backfire - see DARE program or "You wouldn't download a car".
P.S. : Still waiting on my invite to inner-earth.
Because it obviously looks theatrical, the dramatization reading the paper...
— Albert Allen Bartlett
First time I hear the expression, but it might be key to unlock any action.
This does not have to do with education it seems. Lots of school smart people seem fall into this category and conversely I've had uneducated lower-class people come to that conclusion a long time ago.
There's a saying that a new paradigm does not get accepted into mainstream because of it convincing its detractors but because they all die in the end.
I think this is somehow the same with the climate crisis. The detractors and denialists will never accept any evidence that we put in front of their eyes; they cannot accept the conclusion, no matter what.
How do you convince the deniers of this? It seems that more graphs and facts only make them deny harder
that said, I honestly have a bad time trying to figure out if there's such a thing as "too alarmist" re. claims like "one third of projected population by 2070 will live in a nearly unlivable earth" https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11350
Or, they are referring to the IPCC reports themselves, for sure, the third and last working group who has the final words are not scientists indeed, which leads to all these "mistakes" in every final report that our politicians use (or try to) to create new taxes on the poor.
I did a cursory check, and working group III seems to be headed by two academics (one of them a physicist), so not sure what you base that claim on...
Seriously; our global civilization is in real danger of collapse in the next fifty years. I do see no reason not to panic or be alarmist?
I find it strange however that people are still able to actually ignore and deny the slew of icebergs we will be hitting in the next years; how can one be so delusional? Is it willful?
I think to a point it is. The idea that all of our oh-so-normal lives with hot showers that every human since the beginning of time enjoyed is coming to an end. And emotionally we just cannot deal with it; it's too big for us to grasp. And so we shut down that part of the brain and just suppress thinking about it.
Wasn't that due to happen back in 2000?
I could collapse in fear daily but it wouldn’t do any good. The only thing to do is enjoy the time you have.
The IPCC reports are a good contemporary equivalent of memento mori.
One of my recent successes was to be able to get my grandparents to accept that there's a problem. We're still having our extinction booth at the local grocery store, once a month. There we present damages done to the eco system, current information about climate change.
Still; many people are not really getting the message.
Here we're talking about unglamourous people gathering data, making projections, being wrong, gathering more data, updating their projections, being less wrong, gathering more data, making more updated projections, being less and less wrong, observing the reality becoming closer to their worst-case scenario, and being mocked by masses doing basically nothing.
Clearly, it's the same story.
Cool story. I don't see the parallel here though. Is anyone seriously suggesting that we destroy our civilisation to save the environment?
Today, many people are experiencing very unlikely events, unknown to them and to previous generations. While you cannot experience a trend, you do modulate your perception about what an improbable likelihood feels like. That, I feel, is very powerful to nuance certain varieties of skepticism.
I think people don't vote (or buy, or move) based on documented trends, standard deviations or moving averages, but on subjective perception of what future will be like. That is, inter-subjective bets, updated from day to day.
I guess very few people in certain countries would have bet that they would lose their homes to a summer flood or fire.
But regardless, people who can see the curvature of the earth (and could perform other experiments) can still manage to be flat-earthers, so hard-core idiots cannot be convinced of whatever obvious things they choose to not believe in.
Governments will have to set the right incentives for these people to still do the right thing for society in general. Eg. a carbon tax. It's much easier to know which item is cheaper and then choose that.
People can be extraordinary thick-headed, even in the face of direct experience (like people you know dying of covid).
In other words, why would anyone get to "make politics" despite of anyone.
For bonus points play on hard level and try to have a productive conversation on COVID with someone who rejects germ theory:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/deep-dive-into-stupi...
Getting people on the same page means understanding their motives and framing the facts appropriately. Unfortunately, people just want to take sledgehammers to "the other side", as if that's ever really fixed anything.
So yeah, maybe not everyone, but the reward matrix in this game makes very difficult to ignore all of them.
We are past the window for incentives -- we have sufficient observation of how individual incentive-guided action plays out in a finite world built of externalities. We are in the window for action: nationalization/collectivization of the offenders, forfeiture of their assets, and redirection into massive creation of renewables, sustainable industry, carbon capture/mitigation, and global relief for the people displaced and impoverished by climate and food disruption.
Most voters are not actually "deniers", it seems outlandish to me that so much handwringing is made over these people. Every article, time after time, it's so tiresome. Deniers are a few % of the population globally, and even in high denier country like USA it's somewhere under 15%. The deniers aren't preventing improvements from happening.
The problem is corporate, political, and international corruption and collusion that inhibits radical change and shuts down even any serious discussion of alternatives. The denier is a wonderful scapegoat for them to blame though.
I'm not a denier in the slightest, actually the opposite. However I disagree with the direction of some of the proposed "solutions" and I've never seen any serious discussion and analysis and alternatives put to the public to vote on. It's always framed as an us vs them issue, you're with us or against us, a disciple of the denier cult or the science cult. The problem is they say you must trust the science, and from there they draw the line a little further for you and tell you you have to trust their global economic plans.
Sure I trust the science and the scientists completely. I don't trust politicians or their lobbyists to actually turn that science into fair, equitable, effective policy. I think they quite like providing two bad options because that pleases their owners and allows them to put on a big show of fighting those evil leftists/rightists while not actually doing very much.
For example, I don't agree that a country with high emissions intensity of production should be given concessions that give them any relative advantage in production over countries that have far better emissions intensity of production. That will create incentives to move production to higher emissions countries, so I think it should actually be the opposite. I also don't agree per-capita quotas or concessions are a good idea because that creates perverse incentives to increase population growths and restrict living standards.
Stating opinions like this has resulted in some pretty astounding vitriol and hatred spewed at me (not on this forum but other parts of the internet and the real world) from people who have been extremely vocal in proclaiming how much they want solutions, and how much they value diversity of opinion, open discussion, etc. And never has it ever resulted in open minded discussion or genuine attempts to understand other points of view.
Anything we do is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
The lowest emission scenario in the report, with emissions falling to zero by 2050, keeps global warming below 1.5C. Yours, "discover fusion tomorrow, stop all CO2 release" would obviously do even better.
Or are you a denier?
You really are 100% trolling on this site.
Here's refurb's previous "contributions" to the topic for anyone curious as to why I called him out:
> Do you have data showing that every hurricane, tornado, fire and monsoon season is “getting worse and worse”?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28094216
> Pretty sure they predicted the collapse of another ocean current like 5 years ago, yet here we are.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28086413
I'm confident that there's more where that came from.
Update: As I thought, here's some more FUD/derailing on climate change in just the last month or two:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27739215
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27727460
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27711924
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27699141
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27671657
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27671641
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27872967
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27792095
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27771181
And you're talking about good faith in other comments?