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Comment by refurb | Hacker News Reader

Pipe dream. You’re looking at 50-100 years to wean the world off of oil.

I’d actually suspect we’re closer to the middle of the s curve on green tech than we give credit to.

Most automakers are now divesting from ic technology. GM announced a lithium mine that will at least double global lithium production. Solar is now mass producible and cheaper than most carbon plants in most locations.

It’s really cheap to set up solar production relative to coal power plants, with much less regulatory burden and the ability to make arbitrarily small utility production.

Conversely negative economic impacts of fossil fuels are now being felt via climate variability.

Don’t disagree that we’ll see significant uptake of electric vehicles over the next 10-20 years in Western countries. But Asia and Africa will be 20-30 years behind that curve.

Ola Electric just got 100,000 bookings for their electric scooter in a week, and is building one of the largest EV factories on Earth. Same for ReVolt Motors in India.

The magnitude of change can only be comprehended in the rear view mirror, not from the windshield

We'll probably make plastic out of oil for a while after we stop burning it. But we burn so much compared to what we need for other purposes that the existing reserves will last a long time.

They said the same about electric cars and here we are.

Where is here? A few percent market share? The average age of vehicles is 12 years. Even if all gasoline vehicles are banned in 2030 you’d be looking close to 2050 to eliminate gas.

And that’s in rich nations. You think India or China has the money to buy all new vehicles?

The rich countries make the cars. All brand new cars will be electric very soon. China is into EV big time as well, especially since they don't have oil reserves and this is one in 100 years chance to disrupt the auto industry owned by foreign countries.

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