Vaccines aren't a factor as they weren't available when any of the variants emerged. The emergence can't be either the vaxxed or the unvaxxed's fault. Nobody's responsible or culpable, it's entropy.
Of the current strains which are active everywhere : - Alpha emerged in the UK before vaccines - Beta in SA before vaccines - Delta and Gamma in India before vaccines.
Of the current variants of interest: - Eta and Iota come respectively from France+UK and New York City, both before vaccines. - Epsilon (not of interest anymore) came from California before vaccines. Same for theta in the Philippines. - Kappa and Lambda come respectively from India and Peru, both before vaccines.
As for who's at fault for spreading : vaxxing 60% of the population only drops Deltas R_0 from 4.6 to 4.3.
It is immaterial whether you are vaxxed. The virus is smarter.
See my comment for details : https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28076327
It does not matter where or how the variants originated - in fact it's very likely that variants arose under neutral genetic drift. What matters is the selective pressure induced by the current mRNA vaccines which illicit an immune response that is highly targeted toward the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2.
Here are some excerpts from [1], I highly suggest reading it if you're interested in these ideas:
- "The spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 is the molecular target for many vaccines and antibody-based prophylactics aimed at bringing COVID-19 under control."
- "Such a narrow molecular focus raises the specter of viral immune evasion as a potential failure mode for these biomedical interventions. With the emergence of new strains of SARS-CoV-2 with altered transmissibility and immune evasion potential, a critical question is this: how easily can the virus escape neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) targeting the spike RBD?"
- "Our modeling suggests that SARS-CoV-2 mutants with one or two mildly deleterious mutations are expected to exist in high numbers due to neutral genetic variation, and consequently resistance to vaccines or other prophylactics that rely on one or two antibodies for protection can develop quickly -and repeatedly- under positive selection."
- "The speed at which nAb resistance develops in the population increases substantially as the number of infected individuals increases, suggesting that complementary strategies to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission that exert specific pressure on other proteins (e.g., antiviral prophylactics) or that do not exert a specific selective pressure on the virus (e.g., high-efficiency air filtration, masking, ultraviolet air purification) are key to reducing the risk of immune escape"
- "Strategies for viral elimination should therefore be diversified across molecular targets and therapeutic modalities"