On the one hand, I entirely believe that their state has the reach and support to quarantine entire regions and crush the pandemic by force.
On the other hand, nominally Marxist countries with massive bureaucracies and being honest about death tolls go together like shit and strawberry shortcake.
I’m still probably erring on the side of China getting it right though. The Soviets barely managed to cover up Chernobyl for a few days and this is a much more visible event.