There's a lot of evidence about what worked what didn't work. Dozens of countries and well organized societies responded well to the pandemic.
If that was true why can I take the population adjusted graphs for any interesting statistic, overlay several countries or states, and see the shape of them all is basically the same?
I would assert that for any of these non-pharmaceutical interventions to have been worthwhile the effect on such charts should be absolutely noticeable to any layman on the street. If you need PhD level math to tell a country who "did it right" apart from a country who "did it wrong"... it probably means that it wasn't worth "doing right".
Did you forget about the half-million dead in the richest country in the world? That didn't not happen, and is extremely different from other places.
Many other countries had huge death rates but didn't test much before and don't test the dead, unlike the States.
Then control for age and obesity, the two factors that make a population most vulnerable.
Please show me a chart where competent governments like NZ, Japan, Australia, China and Indonesia are somewhat similar to incompetent ones like Brazil, USA or South Africa.
Edit:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-obesit...
Everyone had bad spikes and changes in circumstances eventually.
The US did uniquely badly in the first wave relative to Europe, and their fortunes reversed in the second wave.
Japan and Taiwan did great up front and more poorly later on.
It's not over yet, don't count anyone in or out.