1,000 people who agree on a paradigm which may be false is not helped by another 9,000 people who agree with that same paradigm. In the era of Einstein, how many physicists accepted the traditional view of space and time? throwing more physicists at the same problem probably doesn't mean getting more Einsteins.
Potential example for today (though IANAD nor Biologists), how many scientists and researchers agree upon removing plaques as a treatment for alzheimers? how long has that theory been the dominant narrative in spite of failed treatments at removing plaques? how many individuals wanted to try/research something different but all the other grants went to people pursuing the held narrative because the grantors also held that same narrative?
There's countless of companies where scaling up # of people just adds noise and bureaucracy and smaller companies with strong-minded individuals were able to break through.
[0]: https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2005/07/25/hitting-the-high-n...
And it works 9 out of 10 times. It's just that one time that's a problem, but it's still probably the most optimal strategy for nearly everyone.
I have almost no understanding of anything. Everyday I use technology that just works. What happens in the background, I'll never know. I interact with complex social systems without knowing what makes them work or how my interactions affect me and any of these systems.
All of this works, because I build simple heuristics on everything I interact with. Mostly, these heuristics are called expectations. I expect something to happen, because I don't know with certainty that it will.
"I know that I don't know".
Cargo cults are antivaxx, anti-climate change. Things that are obviously not true, but that many people want to believe so they do. The issue is that this kind of thinking is actually default, which I've grown to understand recently. IE many people who are in favor of good things don't really have a deep understanding of why that is - they've just adopted an opinion that sounds good to them. This is particularly pronounced in ie economics and politics, where understanding is extremely shallow.
High risk, novel approaches often aren't funded or few opportunities exist for them. There is good reason for this because it can be abused by those just looking for fun or easy work while labeling it novel. It may also encourage fringe sciences that are bordering on psuedo-scientific work. They incorporate a bit of science but then go off in directions that are almost provably wrong. Distinguishing which novel approaches seem like genuinely novel realistic and non abusive proposals isn't always easy. In some cases they're just laughably wrong because there are so many assumptions baked in that are almost provably wrong or at least self inconsistent. On the other hand, some aren't quite so easy and involve a significant amount of effort and insight to understand exactly what's being proposed. This is often where paradigm shifting research really occurs.
It can take incredibly brilliant scientists with enough creativity to see the opportunity in a proposal and approve it and those aren't the people often awarding proposals. On the flip side, most of these sort of proposals, no matter how valid and novel they may be, simply aren't going to be correct and the reviewer is right to take a more critical eye. The novel approaches are inherently high risk and most will be wrong. I still think we need to fund these approaches. I've been involved in proposals that seemed only slightly novel in direction from accepted paradigms and reviewer responses came back (some agencies return anonymized responses) in a way that showed they clearly didn't understand enough about the domain to even make the assessment when their critiques were clearly invalid, they just didn't agree with the proposal approach. Maybe they were right the overall approach was off and created a lame excuse, maybe they were wrong, but this tendency to be risk averse even in the few funding opportunities that were clearly budgeted to be high risk shows the culture we have in modern science.
The burden of responsibility often lies on those proposing these huge shifts and we may be reaching points in some domains of human knowledge where the burden of proof is simply too high for an individual to provide for a given novel idea. Imagine if Peter Higgs alone had to provide evidence to his idea. It wasn't until so many other iteratative approaches were exhausted that particle physics decided they had to start testing novel other options. How much time, effort, even careers were wasted chasing other ideas? Should science be depth first search, breadth first search, a mixture of the two to try and hedge out bets that if we are on the wrong direction we might find a better paradigm in parallel we can jump to when we're stuck, or perhaps a different heuristic?
Then the really really difficult question, for me: if we support a mixture model of say BFS, DFS (and perhaps a handful of others) for the search space of acquirable knowledge, who should decide resourcing allocations for the search mixture model? What is the best set of approaches and resourcing? Science already incorporates complex search mixture approaches for knowledge at various levels but it seems at the highest level (how we resource stuff) it doesn't, it's incredibly iterative, risk averse, and focused on short time horizons for returns on investment.
A way to kill a specific type of cells doesn't sound impossible (zero).
The only variable that increasing the headcount necessarily improves is the headcount itself.
Furthermore, science isn't necessarily a tractable problem that scales linearly with the amount of manpower thrown at it - many of our greatest discoveries have happened serendipitously.
However, I believe that there will eventually be a strategy which prevents almost all cancers. Cancer begins from one cell 100% of the time, and eliminating that cell or preventing the transformation in the first place will stop the cancer from ever developing. One way is to genetically modify the human organism to be cancer resistant. We know this is possible in theory, because there are organisms out there which seem quite resistant to cancers for their size (the naked mole rat, elephants, the bowhead whale). But rationally altering the genome of everyone on the planet is a long way off and possibly unpalatable to many. There are other more near term possibilities.
I should probably add that cancer research is my day job.
Can they though, and is that helpful? Is there sufficient communication between everyone in the field to ensure no one is investigating the same things? Is that still 10x, given the communication overhead in ensuring what you're wanting to start doing isn't already being worked on by one of the 9999 others? Are their 10x as many approaches that can be investigated in parallel at all times?
The lessons from the mythical man month still apply even with research.
I've added "beyond a certain point" to 10x. So e.g., increasing from 10 to 100 helps. 100 to 1000 helps. 1000 to 10,000? maybe. 10,000 to 100,000? maybe not. And so on (like approaching diminishing returns). (again the numbers are for illustration, and would vary with the nature of work).
You cannot really pay a man to "focus" (I mean, work passionately) on something, which is what exactly is required in these kind of things.
And I think this might be blocking our progress right now. Because people cannot work on things they are passionate about, because they are told to focus on this other thing, some other idiot thought they better work on..