Hacker News Reader

Comment by Animats | Hacker News Reader

"Remember, we have to get people back and we have to get people back in volume. If you were to see a 15% decline of people coming back to New York City, that would have a devastating impact on the commercial market," Cuomo said.

He means the commercial real estate market.

Remote work is terrifying to NYC commercial landlords. Right now, about 17% of NYC commercial real estate is on the market as vacant. A lot more is probably leased but unused. Are all those skyscrapers really necessary?

If SF had a 15% decline in people coming back to the office, that would probably be a win.

View on HN

Update: 19% vacant, per NYT. 21% in downtown Manhattan.

"A third of leases at large Manhattan buildings will expire over the next three years, according to CBRE, a commercial real estate services company, and companies have made clear they will need significantly less space."

Yet there's still 14 million square feet of commercial space under construction.

Anyone need a spare skyscraper?

I mean, NYC rents are still through the roof. They could build out housing in these tall empty spaces.

I think that it is actually quite expensive and time consuming to convert office space to residential. The main issue being plumbing. Most offices are setup to have a few restrooms and maybe a sink in each space for the break room.

It's a rather difficult problem when you go from 5 rarely used sinks on each floor to needing to supply water and waste drainage for maybe 50 sinks, 50 showers, 50 bathtubs, 50-100 toilets, 50 washing machines, etc, all on that same floor. Not to mention that you now have to figure out waste disposal because you will be creating way more garbage that is much smellier.

Sucks to suck. If any industry is lacking for capital to face a pivot it certainly isn't real estate. The interest rate is ridiculously low and no one seems to believe it will change.

Oh I bet, but if the office space is becoming long term not useful, and people still pay a lot to live in NYC, it seems like there’s money in conversion.

That said I am the farthest thing from a real estate expert as you’ll get.

housing would follow the work places, and as they go, housing demand is not a given.

I hear you, but it's NYC - rents are still high enough that I'm thinking demand for housing is there even if demand for office space isn't.

That was my thought, but I'm guessing the retrofit would be really expensive.

> NYC commercial landlords

It’s difficult to overstate the political influence these landlords and especially the associated developers wield in NYC and NYS politics.

As another commentator said, the commercial real estate industry is a huge force in NYC and NYS politics. However, it's also a huge revenue generator for both city and state. Putting aside political influence, they're staring down the double barrels of covid money running out, and then greatly reduced revenue from rents. NYS is also weighed down by pension costs, so I can see why Cuomo wants people back ASAP.

A relevant, though long video on the subject from Louis Rossmann:

West Midtown Manhattan's businesses are going, going, gone.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kPhbiuDo6I

Reply on news.ycombinator.com