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Comment by rvz | Hacker News Reader

A great opportunity to short $NKLA, if you haven't already done it.

I wouldn't recommend it. Many of us have known for months and months that the company is 100% fraud but the market stays irrational.

I'm actually a little surprised that shares fell so much on this news, I'd have thought that this info - or wide expectation of it - was already discounted in the price.

Is it, er, all downhill from here?

Well they fell only slightly (surprised they fell at all actually) because Trevor Milton was named, not Nikola. So they let him go and now he personally is getting sued, not the company.

The CNBC article said 11pc in early trading. Just checked the price and it's 7.9pc down atm. That's still quite a drop, I'd say.

Gotcha - I think the parent said it only dropped slightly so I was reacting to that news at that time. It's definitely a significant drop as you point out. I'm a little surprised at such a large drop though, the small drop made a little more sense to me.

Well it turns out that my $NKLA short went well and I'm still up more than 20pc since I placed my short position 5 days ago. Just closed 75% of my position and set my stop loss to break even.

> I wouldn't recommend it. Many of us have known for months and months that the company is 100% fraud

Is this the time where I say that I have the last laugh? I think so.

As for the down-voters; they are really quiet today aren't they?

If you're reading an article about the indicting the founder of a company and someone is posting on HN that it's a good time to short, then it's too late to short.

Interestingly, if they had shorted it at the time they made the comment, they would currently be ahead.

And if the ball landed on black instead of red the last time I bet on roulette I'd also be ahead.

Performance analysis like this after the fact doesn't really have any relevance unless there was some information missed.

Further reading on this in Adaptive Markets : Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought. Has some theories around information flow and market participant behavior that permit edge to persist.

Well 13 days later after calling my NKLA short position and closing 75% of my position [0] I now made more money after it fell below $10.00 on the 12th of August as of this comment.

So it seems I'm the one leaving with profit after closing the remaining 25% of my short position while you sit their and watch.

It turns out that I'm the one laughing all the way to the bank.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27996773

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28050958

The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

"It's priced in"

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