Made over a billion in profit, and margins are close to 25% which are great.
That makes me think we're many, many years away from seeing $25K~ EVs. You can cut some things off of the Model 3, but battery reduction in particular is a headache since you risk damaging your reputation/EV's reputations if you make it too weak (particularly with normal degradation).
I know this is proprietary/secret, but I'd love to see a pie chart of where each dollar on a Model 3 goes. In particular how much is pure battery/drive system, and basically the whole rest of the car.
You might not see $25K new EVs, but you'll see used versions around that price with 100k+ miles on them that still drive like they're new (there are Model S and X vehicles with hundreds of thousands of miles on their drivetrain still going strong).
TLDR We're financially engineering our way out of combustion based transportation.
I just bought a model 3 a month ago or so. I don't drive often but I have been looking to drive my car because I now love driving the thing.
back to my point. I have been using this app optiwatt which, very conservatively, tracks my charging efficiency and how much it costs me to charge. In the first month i've saved almost $80 in what it would cost a gasoline car. This is coming from someone who doesn't drive very much. I can definitely see this number adding up for someone who has a 45min-1h commute.
An EV is much less convenient than a conventional vehicle, it needs to have a lower CoO just to offset that. Once electric vehicles can charge in comparable times to gas for comparable miles, then we can talk, in the meantime you're gaining lower ownership cost for more hassle (and that's ok, but you cannot double-dip it).
> I don't mind an 84 month auto loan at <2% interest
That's available on gas vehicles too (and even better interest rates in some cases), largely offsetting whatever edge you're trying to argue.
> You might not see $25K EVs, but you'll see used versions around that price with 100k+ miles on them that still drive like they're new
Drive like? Yes. Range? Unlikely. Just look at the costs of a full battery module replacement, it would eat up over 50% of that $25K price. Plus the rate of technological advancement may hurt old EVs worse than gas vehicles, because one is advancing more rapidly than the other.
I suspect a lot of people care that electric sedans costs almost $15K more than hybrid sedans, and I suspect you'll see sales explode if a "Model 2" that cost $25K~ were ever produced (with a few disclaimers on range, seat capacity, etc).
I wish this argument would just die. It's so ignorant and assine. The convenience is different, not less.
I haven't had to stop at a gas station to fuel up either of my cars since Nov 2018. I haven't used a charger outside of my home since last August to charge my Nissan Leaf, and in 2020 I only used chargers twice. That's 2 times since Nov of 2019 on a vehicle with an 80 mile range.
Our Model 3 was driven across country and kept time with a box truck moving all of our belongings.
I plug my cars in when I need a charge at home. I don't have to run out for gas the night before a trip or on the way. I don't have to make planned or unplanned stops at gas stations. I don't have to go to gas stations at all.
But EVs are less convenient because you can imagine scenarios in your head.
Your statement is laughably inaccurate, and sounds to me to support a narrative more than being based on personal experience. I fill the "tank" on the Leaf when I sleep, instead of going out of my way to find a gas station when I drive the ICE. And this is first-get Leaf, which is a loooong way from what more modern BEVs offer. I'm also reminded that I have to go get the oil changed on that Scion xB soon; how convenient.
Look, you don't want a BEV, don't buy one. You don't want to buy TSLA, don't buy the stock. What you don't get to do is just make shit up, like this statement:
Just look at the costs of a full battery module replacement, it would eat up over 50% of that $25K price.
I've looked. Your numbers aren't even close to reality.
I drove from Sacramento to Denver in a model 3, no big deal, we averaged 200 miles per stop, and often I could often stop a bit short, or a bit long depending on random preferences. Do you often drive 6 hours without a bathroom or food break?
Our average stop was between 20 and 30 minutes, when the battery is low it charges at 550 miles an hour or so, and we often just need 200 or so. That way we stop every 3 hours to stretch our legs, let the dog go potty, and let anyone hungry get a snack.
Sure, maybe sometimes we would have left 10 minutes sooner. But then again in the last year I've gone to a gas station zero times, taken my car in for an oil change zero times, had zero issues with spark plugs, timing chains, head gaskets, etc. I very rarely drive more than 300 miles a day, so just waking up in the morning to a full car is quite a convenience. Recently I was a bit worried about range, drove to the top of a 14,000+ mountain and was at 51% at the top, after starting with 90% (the Tesla recommended maximum for normal daily driving). I got home with 72%, which I found pretty amazing, the wonders of regenerative braking.
So I'd rank an EV for normal usage (commuting less than 300 miles a day) SIGNIFICANTLY more convenient than a gas car.
Ymmv buy in my experience my EV is way more convenient
Probably not true for a lot of people. I’d hit range limits maybe one or two days a year. In exchange I can have my car “full” all the time. It cuts out a lot of trips to the gas station, which aren’t always convenient.
The advantage there will come from a number of places over the current Model 3.
Structural battery will make the car lighter, cheaper and of course efficient. The perspective $25K car will also likely use a cheaper battery chemistry produced by Tesla themselves and a much smaller overall pack. The range should be the same or slightly only slightly less.
Put those things together, smaller, lighter, lower production cost and slightly lower margin (15%) makes this very much possible. Of course this car would have upgrades to, in the car industry the base model has much worse margin then the upgrade models.
> I know this is proprietary/secret, but I'd love to see a pie chart of where each dollar on a Model 3 goes. In particular how much is pure battery/drive system, and basically the whole rest of the car.
You can go to Munro & Associates and they will sell you a report with a detailed break down of the cost for literally every screw and how much it cost to screw it in. You can even get reports on the difference between China/US and so on.
They also have a lot of video very you can learn about this. They don't show all the numbers of course but they do show a lot of interesting numbers.
See: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCj--iMtToRO_cGG_fpmP5XQ
(Currently they are working on Ford Mach-E)
If you are more interested in EV in general, not just Model 3, they have actually made their report of the BMW i3 almost free. You can literally get a report that used to be $50k for $10.
See here:
https://munrolive.com/support-%2F-store/ols/products/bmw-i3-...
You can go and build your own BMW i3.
These credits allowed Tesla to build the factories that are now pumping out EVs. If they had not sold these credits, the other manufacturers would sold less ICE, and without a successful EV markers to convince politicians that EV are viable, ICE makers would have proved to regulators that penalties are killing jobs and hurting the economy... for nothing. Credits would have been canceled and we would have more big polluting gas guzzlers around a handful of aging Tesla roadsters for billionaires.