This is the second time in a few weeks that there has been unprecedented surface water (rain, not river) induced flooding in many parts of London. An NYT article from 13th July:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/13/world/europe/uk-london-fl...
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/13/world/europe/uk-london-fl...
Climate scientists have been predicting more extreme weather for decades. This is just the early phase.
Suppose there is at least a 50 year latency between human emissions and effect on weather, we're just starting to feel the effects of the past. I really hope this is just a statistical effect, but it feels like it isn't. Crossing Fingers.
What we have now is the previous mode faltering and wobbling out of its relatively stable phase, into… who knows.
Fun thing about chaotic systems - they’re chaotic. You can’t just put the parameters back to where they were and expect the same system you had to reestablish. There’s no “undo”, and modelling rapidly runs out of ideas - our best forecasts are so-so at best.
Layer atop that the chaotic systems of humanity, and you’ve got… an interesting interaction. You don’t need the entire world to burn for systems to collapse - you just need to watch the underwriters collapse, as you spend more and more of your GDP on cleaning up the mess and security, and run out of money for anything else. Meanwhile, crops fail, and food becomes increasingly erratic in supply. We’ll turn on each other long before the climate kills us directly.
I for one do not expect to die of old age.
No truly intelligent species trashes its own planet and makes it less inhabitable. But here we are.
By the way, methane have a faster effect, but desintegrate quite fast (i think its half-life is around ten year, not sure though, you should check yourselve). However, it turns into CO2 + 2H2O at stratospheric levels, so in the long runs it is not at all better.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-temperature-graph-18...
It's not like we didn't get any warnings or didn't see it coming.