From your article:
> The US Department of Labor Inspector General Office in late March estimated that at least $89 billion of the estimated $896 billion in federal unemployment program funds could be paid improperly, with a significant portion attributable to fraud. This is based on a historic improper payment rate of at least 10%.
This is lazy BS from the other side; they know for a fact that the rate of fraud is going to be higher than it was pre-COVID. We know how much has been paid out and the only question is what the fraud rate is.
I agree that you have to be skeptical given that id.me is selling a product, and to be honest, I only put two-and-two together after making my comment and revisiting the axios article since I first came across it. That being said, given how many states are using id.me, they have unique visibility into the problem and I don't think it's fair to write them off as entirely untrustworthy.
tl;dr: The number is probably between $100B and $400B. It's hundreds of billions of dollars either way.