Feels weird to invoke the Lindy Effect on Hacker News, but here we are.

The general premise (and Taleb didn't come up with this) is that for a phenomenon with no natural lifespan, you should assume you're halfway through its actual lifespan.

Biologically modern humans are about 100,000 years old, so I put our tombstone at 102021 A.D.

Now that could be wrong... in either direction! But I'm inclined to plan for the future such that we're as comfortable as we can be for the next hundred millennia.