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pandemic unemployment has already ended in a bunch of states. If it's the problem, we would be seeing those states rebound.

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That’s exactly what’s happening. The States that ended the extend benefits have lower unemployment rates. Ex: https://apnews.com/article/business-health-alabama-coronavir...

> The States that ended the extend benefits have lower unemployment rates.

Your “example” is of a state that had a lower unemployment than the national average before ending extended unemployment benefits seeing not significantly different than the national rate of decline in unemployment in the brief period since cutting extended benefits, not an example of more rapid drop after cutting benefits.

Of course you have lower rates of people collecting unemployment when you end unemployment extensions. You can lower it to 0% by killing the program altogether.

You'd be better looking at rates of employment.

Unemployment rates refer to the share of workers who are out of work, not the share who are receiving benefits - i.e. it’s the rate at which people are unemployed, not the rate at which they are “on unemployment”

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