Restaurant workers quit at record rate
npr.org
npr.org
Stop the tipping guilt trip placed on the public, raise your prices 20%, and pay your employees a livable wage. The public will still show up to eat in your restaurant.
It’s just that people are realizing that there are easier minimum wage jobs than working in a kitchen
If this industry literally cannot afford to pay people a living wage, if no one wants to work for them and they can't remain profitable by making working conditions better, then they just shouldn't even exist.
In a pandemic with vast spending deficits, the government is giving out mortgage holidays, 95% mortgage scheme, stamp duty holiday etc.
If your average American working a full-time job can't afford to eat out at high enough prices to keep restaurants afloat while paying decent wages, that sounds like a systemic problem—and we already know that one of those exists here.
This isn't really true. Restaurants exist to fill a bunch of different needs; experience, novelty, convenience etc. And expense isn't a particularly good predictor of quality.
I do agree that once you can cook well you're much less likely to be happy at an overpriced generic version of something... which is right where fast casual and big chain casual is aimed. But sometimes you go for the company and not the food, etc.
This cuts both ways, some types of pain are easier to take on at home. During service, time and focus are at a premium - which is way almost every place cuts corners on e.g., risotto.
Once you can cook well you learn that cheap is typically bad food. Expensive food can be good or bad, the good is worth it for those other reasons you state.
Not really. I had a great tacos the other day from a food truck, and great Ethiopian dinner on the weekend. Both cheap and not something I could reproduce easily or at all.
On the other hand, what you say usually applies to the ragu at a fast-casual.
So it depends.
Yet sometimes I crave a fried chicken sandwich and to hell if we're going to spend the time doing that ourselves. Life's too short and that's way too much work.
A couple of decent summaries:
* https://www.thedailymeal.com/eat/why-home-cooked-food-never-...
* https://old.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/1f1vr6/e...
People always need to eat.
It’s not fiscally viable closed system. Restaurants operate on tiny margins and come and go as frequently as software startups.
We keep trying to hitch biological necessity to ridiculous memes of social capital accumulation, inventing more abstract and Byzantine math as if literal reality will implode if the rich can’t earn a profit.
Like healthcare, the routine is eating is obviously necessary. Is the industrialization?
If you are a KFC/Burger King/McDonalds franchisee then it seems to work but I have lost count the number of establishments that open/closes in that one spot of our local mall.
Pub/Indian/Pizza/Chinese/Fish & Chips/ - they come and go.
McD is more strategic: They want a good business plan, location, etc. and are very picky at the cost of some false negatives.
Wrong.
"From the beginning, the minimum wage was meant to be a living wage—meaning families could live off of the pay comfortably, rather than struggling paycheck-to-paycheck" https://www.lendio.com/blog/minimum-wage-livable/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carriesheffield/2014/04/29/on-t...
And who worked the day shift?
There are a lot of people who like having a job, but don't really need the money. Those that need the money move up to management if they can.
These people exist, I do not believe that any of them work at fast food restaurants. That’s an incredible amount of stress to put yourself through to “get out of the house” and meet new people.
> Those that need the money move up to management if they can.
I think you’re overestimating the size of management by quite a bit.
Most people decide fast food management isn't for them, and move elsewhere. The ones who remain dropped out and need the free training.
> Most people decide fast food management isn't for them, and move elsewhere.
Perhaps it was too stressful? Just a thought.
Management is more stressful. That is a different from the line worker who has been working the same position for the last 5 years, with no interest in advancing. I saw several people refuse advancements because they didn't want the stress: they knew how to do their job and it wasn't stressful at all anymore. (they learned to shut off the customer who yells at them while the cook is behind on orders - this coping is an important skill)
Then your experience is atypical.
> Management is more stressful.
But you said it wasn't stressful. Which is it?
> they learned to shut off the customer who yells at them while the cook is behind on orders - this coping is an important skill
Uhhh, this is not a good thing. You're describing someone shutting down in the face of excessive stress.
I'd also point out that claiming that it's "not stressful" and being shouted at by customers are mutually exclusive. Being shouted at is a stressful experience, definitionally.
Deskilling, derisking, outsourcing. Companies used to run their own email, which required a competent mailadmin, nowadays you outsource it to Google or Microsoft.
Most companies didn't hire a competent mail admin, their IT guy would run Exchange on the company fileserver as a part of his other duties.
Most of the large companies that used to hire a competent mail admin to run their mail servers still run their own mail servers.
That's an odd way of looking at it. Surely what happened first isn't that the expectations of fast food jobs changed out of the blue. Could it instead be that other jobs which adults worked to support their families went away?
2) Have you actually looked back and compared that salary to the cost of living back then? I think you might be surprised how many people could, and were, supporting a family on a job that “anyone with a pulse” could do.
Any sane economist that has to solve for the constraint "everyone has to provide for themselves" aka the mythical republican "responsibility" would first start by creating enough jobs to reach full employment. When you leave everything up to responsibility you also have the duty to provide everyone with the ability to live up to their responsibility.
Society as a whole doesn't benefit from exploitation or unsustainable businesses.
listening to Changelog while riding my bike at night after getting out of the factory
Return to office might have some reverse effect but online remote employees can be one of the biggest generators of this problem.
They are. It takes time but they are. I work in a business that is having a hard time hiring entry level healthcare workers because Walmart and Amazon warehoueses is now paying $15-20/hr when it was only $12 pre-covid. Walmart and Amazon would only raise wages if they truly had a labor supply issue, which they do, we all do.
With their huge efficiencies of scale and deep cash reserves, they are better able to offer higher wages than competitors. During the pandemic, both Walmart and Amazon have seen huge growth. They can continue this growth post-pandemic by squeezing their competitors on wages, and eventually emerging with less competitors.
No soup for you.
Sounds like they're in a no win situation.
If they don't raise wages: "boo they're paying their workers slave wages!"
If they do raise wages: "boo they're using their huge scale to further crush their competitors!"
Nothing, good point.
> That is what they are doing now, right?
I haven't seen that near where I live (in the US) though I wouldn't doubt there are a number of locations experiencing that.
Kroger decided to close a store because it didn't want to pay a covid front line temporary increase of $4/hr.
I don't see a big increase in wages, and I work a lot of lousy jobs.
If job conditions were a bit better, a lot of employees will stay at a low paying job because they actually like their fellow employees, and sometimes the job.
I don't know why being nice/respectful is so out of fashion in corporate america?
I grocery shop at Safeway, and The Nugget markets. Safeway employees hate their job. They even have a hard time retaining new immigrants. When I shop at Safeway, I sometimes need to move to another line if I feel the checker is having a bad day. (I overheard an employee state a manager wanted him at a store 70 miles away at 5 am the next day, and he told that manager he didn't have transportation other than the bus. I wanted to grab the phone and lay into that "Manager".)
As opposed to The Nugget, which is notated as one of the best 100 places to work. It's like going back to the fifties. The employees are nice. It might be they hire people whom will have better jobs one day?
Anyways, it's not just about wage. I have had lousy low paid jobs I liked, and well paid union jobs I despise.
If you're talking about Seattle, Kroger closed that store because it was underperforming for years, not because of a temporary wage increase that affected every grocery store in the city. Weeks later, they started advertising open positions with wage increases for nearby stores they didn't close...
When it comes to political decisions, firms lie all the time about their motivations. I don't understand how anyone can take what they say at face value, without any means to verify their claims.
The reality is that nobody closes their grocery business because labour costs went up for them and their competitors. Customers still need groceries to live, and you and your competitors just pass the costs directly to them, without any change to profit margins or market share. Closing your grocery over this is as nonsensical as closing your grocery because the spot price of milk went up to $15/gallon.
Of course they're not going to say "we're closing because we don't want to pay our employees a decent wage", that would be bad optics. You can be pretty sure that if you ask employees at the store, they'll say that whatever the stated reason, the intended message from the parent company is "we ain't gonna pay you more".
It gets argued again and again that the profit incentive is necessary for cutting inefficiencies, and looking at it from Kroger's perspective, this appears to be another such example. Yet this is only the case for Kroger - when considered in its full context, as a supplier of necessities for working class folks, it's the total opposite. It's the composition fallacy at work: just because companies with a profit motive evolve to cut inefficiencies wherever possible (such as by externalizing costs) does not mean that society as a whole reaps the same benefits.
> Salary and Years of Experience
> Based on the May 2017 salary information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), orderlies make a median wage of $13.07 an hour or $27,180 a year. Half of orderlies receive more, and half make less. The lowest-paid 10 percent make less than $9.73 an hour or $20,240 a year, while the highest-earning 10 percent get over $19.52 an hour or $40,610 a year. Orderlies employed in psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals are paid the highest average wage of $17.21 an hour or $35,800 a year. Nursing care facilities pay one of the lowest average wages of $12.00 an hour or $24,950 a year.
> Wages often start out low for entry-level orderlies and grow with experience. Some orderlies complete additional training and state requirements to advance to higher paid nursing assistant or registered nursing roles. In July 2018, PayScale.com showed this hourly pay progression by experience for nurse aides, orderlies and attendants:
> 0 to 5 years: $8.19 - $15.24
> 5 to 10 years: $8.28 - $15.83
> 10 to 20 years: $8.84 - $17.16
> 20 or more years: $8.73 - $20.00
Often working 24, 36 or even 48 hour shifts.
Often for $15/hr or less (many places will pay EMTs literally minimum wage, and tell their employees, "you can have as much OT as you want").
Part of it is supply and demand. Private EMS is often an in-road or holding pattern to a more "cushy" unionized fire department EMS position (where firefighter paramedics can make into the six digits). So private EMS has little motivation to be competitive - "there's a line of 21 year olds who will happily take your job".
the problem is the restaurants are seeing fewer customers due to the pandemic so they can't raise wages, while the upper 1/4 or so of the population hasn't been financially impacted by the pandemic and housing and rents have continued to climb. restaurants can't raise prices in this situation and they can't raise wage, which squeezes the workers who are now not putting up with it any more.
return to work means continued increase in housing prices and if restaurants fully open they're going to have to pay more and that means that those wage and rent increases for the businesses will have to get passed on as rising prices.
if there's a switch to remote work then that will make cities more livable again at current wage costs and menu pricing. you lose some disposable income from the seriously high wage earners that have left the city, but they'll mostly take the distortion of the housing market with them while the bulk of the population that makes less than $150k will have more left out of salaries to eat out at the restaurants.
short term the effect of popping housing bubbles would be recessionary, of course, but it'd act more like Volker's popping of the 70s stagflation bubble, give it 5 years and the "new normal" of consistent housing prices would take over.
And who feels that pressure the most? Service workers, who had jobs in the cities, sure, but didn't reap any of the economic benefits of all that urban wealth concentration. They're overrepresented in the population who fled, which means their jobs are now underserved.
Long term, this will probably just be viewed as a correction to a few overpopulated urban cores. We'll find equilibrium again, though not at the same state as before.
But regardless, the fix here is the same: pay more for the jobs and you'll find people willing to do them.
Exactly, so restaurant owners should raise wages to compensate. There's not a shortage of workers, there's a shortage of owners willing to pay the current market wage.
A lot of jurisdictions showed them this when they paid almost the the same as their FT take-home pay during Covid. I don't think they've left for something better; I think they're mostly not doing anything.
Restaurants have a lot of legal exceptions because you need people to work on sunday, vacations, weird schedules, etc.
So compared to other situations in the same country, it's not a good deal.
Actually a lot of industries have this problem.
I was a smartphone tech. I repaired phones. You know when a majority of our business was done? On weekends and holidays. Whenever my GF had a national holiday, I had to work because it meant the people who put off fixing their phones will take that day and come it for a repair because it was way more convenient than during or after their working hours.
I also had to work until 7pm every night for the same reason. My owner was banking on people coming home from work and stopping, so we stayed open an extra two hours. Some days I had five people in my office. Other days? Maybe one or two. But those two hours generated a lot more revenue than you probably think over the course of a month.
The answer is automation, logistics and supply chain improvements so you can service more customers with fewer, but more specialized employees who can be paid a living wage.
Of course UBI or other safety net would be a good way to avoid social upheaval as well.
I know it's not an apples to apples comparison with any proposed UBI implementation, but looking at the social upheaval caused by the COVID-19 quarantine and stimulus programs, I'd say cutting a check to people and leaving a void in their life where work used to be is a fertile breeding ground for aimless people who will be easily radicalized. It's not something I ever considered pre-2020 as a big proponent of UBI, but now I feel it's something that has to give us concern.
Even if we make an assumption that it IS a zero sum game (and that there are no other jobs), then we're into a wildly different conversation around how we deal with allocating finite resources in a culture that supports property rights, and no one is going to solve that in a hacker news comment chain.
That is not automatically guaranteed.
Part of the problem with the Western economies is that the mills/mines/etc. used to employ a LOT of people.
A good example is the Natrona Heights steel plant. It used to employ something like 10,000 people at its height. After automation, it will now employ a couple hundred.
Where do 9,500 people switch employment to?
Take your example of the steel plant. Presumably when the 9500 people were laid off, productivity remained the same (or increased) and costs went down. Where did the extra profit go? Was it dispersed among the remaining 500 workers? Was it used to help the displaced workers who devoted years building the steel mill and keeping it running? The very people who designed, forged, and brought on-line the machines which replaced them? No, the upside went to the owners, because they have a slip of paper that says they own the mill.
Our problem is not that we're automating away jobs, it's that the displaced workers don't get to share in the benefits of that automation. Eliminating a job is seen as a disaster, rather than a victory. We should want to eliminate terrible jobs, not keep them around just so someone can stay busy. And I guarantee you, people who don't have to work will find something to do. There's always work to be done, just not all of it is profitable (e.g. raising children, taking care of the elderly, volunteering, open source coding, etc.)
Ever heard of Carnegie Tech (CMU), the Wharton School, or Swarthmore college? They exist precisely because of the existence of massive profits from steel.
I don't know how to express this but it frustrates me a great deal.
Money is akin to a video game. It's not real. It's just a token that allocates work. It doesn't decide how much work there is. People decide. You can spend the same dollar an infinite amount of time and thereby create an infinite demand for work.
Therefore work becomes a philosophical or an existential problem. We work for our own benefit to satisfy our needs and desires. To do so we have to do "productive" work, meaning work that helps someone else satisfy their needs and desires by proxy. What if you have already done enough to meet the basic needs of everyone? Yes, we are reaching the edge of humanity. The realm of philosophers. Why do we live? To work? We already worked enough to live. Beyond this point all activity including work is meaningless. When you accept that life itself is meaningless then so is the work that you do to sustain yourself.
How have humans dealt with this in the past? They did wholly pointless work. The pyramids weren't built because they were needed, it's because rulers decided to build them. Another way is to simply start a war. Once there is urgency, politicians are ready to spend whatever it takes, no matter how pointless the war. The Chinese just build infrastructure and housing even before there is a need or purpose.
Here, I'll do it. I'll prove that there is no lack of work and it is purely a political problem: Climate change prevention requires the creation of a huge amount of jobs. Yes this one sentence is a bomb. How does more work, research and technological progress make us poorer? It doesn't. The whole climate change denial/skepticism thing can't be explained by economics because we will end up better off by preventing climate change and I am not even talking about the benefit of preventing climate change. Just the benefit of creating more work. The powerful combination of economics and climate should make any capitalist immediately support the effort.
The only people who actually benefit from denying climate change are those directly working in the fossil fuel industry. Germany once gutted 100k jobs in the renewable industry to keep 20k coal jobs alive. It's 100% not about economics.
I personally haven't worked in a restaurant, but I see how the staff and chefs are always running around, doing 20 things at once. Stimulants use like cocaine and amphetamine is endemic in the industry as well, probably for that reason.
As a restaurant worker, the pay is usually terrible as well. So while some super rich corporation won't lose millions off of your mistakes, you can lose your job and be forced to live off of your inexistent savings. That sounds very stressful to me.
Your assessment for what constitutes stress seems to be, at best, highly subjective.
For me, the cumulative stress of the software industry is a lot higher. I can never quite "turn off" and in the long-run it's a lot harder for me to control my psychological stress, than when I was working in a kitchen.
(And of course these are highly subjective, I'd expect nothing less from a psychological phenomenon. Anecdotes will likely be all over the place.)
For some people, server jobs are a between what they're doing. Especially for artists/filmmakers it's money between the gigs that don't pay. I met tons of people as a barista doing exactly that.
Worked through college, and yes conditions need to be better overall. A concern would be if it's now a FT 40h something or other, it squeezes out people who take 6 months making coffee to get to their next acting gig. Also, barista jobs are a dime a dozen once you make some friends. Very easy to get rehired, people talk.
I'm not sure where this idea comes from that hard work is as valuable/more valuable than skilled work. But it seems to be a pervasive idea.
The problem is that the turnover rate in restaurants is ALREADY very high. Most employees see it as a “stepping stone” while they get their careers on track.
The industry is terrible. If you didn't work in it, your solutions sound a whole hell of a lot like "bootstraps". I think "there should not be such thing as poverty wages" or "if you can't afford to pay people you can't afford to run your business" are better
> Low wages are the most common reason people cite for leaving food service work. But in one recent survey, more than half of hospitality workers who've quit said no amount of pay would get them to return.
> That's because for many, leaving food service had a lot to do also with its high-stress culture: exhausting work, unreliable hours, no benefits and so many rude customers.
Knowledge work does look different from physical work, but you can work hard at both; you need to work hard at either to be successful.
As for why hard physical work is so valued - only a century or two past, it was the only practical method to prevent the starvation for yourself and your family. Knowledge work being a viable means of survival (for non-nobles) is pretty new, all things considered.
Even my own parents never really understood how knowledge work could be as valuable as getting out and working with your hands; and they were born in the early/mid 1900's.
I probably should have used the phrase "unskilled work" in my original post, but I was trying to convey the person's frustrations about "hard work." From an outsiders perspective, a skilled knowledge worker doesn't look like they're working very hard, but we know that's not true.
Those people are only serving us the food we need to live.
After a certain point, programming becomes less hard. It becomes a set of very familiar syntax snippets to copy/paste around.
Rushing around a kitchen in the heat, and often toxic, juvenile environment all week never changes… versus programming in your house?
Give me a break. You’re not coming close to putting the same real pressure on your body.
Programming can be copy/paste, but the hard days when you have to figure out how to eliminate some mutex across some threads so the whole performs without a race condition - that will always be hard.
- 20 years of work
- x years of study
- being born with the right nature/nurture mix for computer work
…to get to this point. That’s a very significant initial hump in difficulty that restaurant work doesn’t have.
I've worked in a factory as a machine operator, and in a company as a programmer, and they're not comparable in either difficulty or compensation.
people with engineering degree struggle to find job as SE.
let alone that you need to put hundreds/thousands of hours into it in your free time
and then still learn a lot as dev in order to move up
i'm not saying that it makes SE harder, just different.
Go work 20 years of Friday and Saturday nights in a popular restaurant. Does not have to be the same one, as the expectation is the same.
The level of effort I need to put into coding dropped off exponentially.
As one ages the level of effort out into restaurant work goes up.
Let’s rely on science and not bias. Programming is still not sweatshop work on the regular. I work 4 solid hours a day.
Why isn’t there a flood of ex-restaurant workers becoming software engineers? Because getting over that hump is really hard, statistically speaking.
Classist wage disparity is a real problem in America today. Often knowledge workers who don't work hard earn more than physical workers who do work hard.
earnings are measured with productivity, and knowledge work has more scaling to their productivity output. You can dig holes really hard, but a hole dug is a hole dug. A line of code written is not just a line of code, as power of compounding output stacks on top of each other.
Historically, the people doing "hard work" were peasants, serfs, and other lower-class people.
The people doing "skilled work" were the educated sons of nobility, and later of wealthy merchants.
An awful lot of the unhealthy and destructive dynamic in our modern work can be traced to feudalism.
Skilled, in late antiquity/mediaval times, meant the engineer doing trebuchet, or building ships, or building high quality steel, etc.. et.c.. it was actually hard work.
None of them were things that the ruling class/aristocracy did. They just paid for it (with the levies/taxes they took from their land).
Eventually another higher skilled level arised, as thinkers/scientists became hired by the court of a monarch, or baron.... and being a patron (paying for someone to do poetry, science, etc) was a sign of status.
The skilled workers have always been the middle class. It took the industrial revolution, where they could become rich themselves, and monarchy started becoming irrelevant.
It really boils down to how much money a business can make from your outputs. A line cook makes the business less money than someone building an AWS service. This is not a law of nature, just the status quo.
Wait until they learn about passive income and proper usage of leverage!
It comes from well-paid workers also liking to pretend that they are hard workers. It's required for the moral superiority.
Because the labor theory of value seems intuitively true,
Unfortunately it does not reflect the reality of how humans exchange labor.
I think it probably depends on which restaurant you work at and on your skill set and ability to thrive in that fast paced environment.
The difference is that software is easier money if you have the knack for that type of work.
But it’s like anything: you have folks who are passionate about cooking but not business savvy. They might be excellent cooks but the potential customers just eat greasy shit and don’t appreciate nuance of vegetables and spices—and so the chefs are at the mercy of substance-less customer demands. How can one be excited about that?
Anyway, I don’t think the folks quitting their jobs fit this category because talented chefs can make a lot more than minimum wage. But it’s still relevant as one must be excited to go to work in the morning.
Equally true of software development, systems/network administration, etc. It can totally suck, or it can be a source of joy, growth, and profit, all depending on where you're workin' and who for. Some of the best jobs I've had in both industries have been almost like "gettin' paid to play" because the whole crew was doin' stuff they already enjoyed doin' and doin' it for a boss that knew how to motivate in positive ways and how to join in and be part of the fun of it all. That plus a paycheck and benefits? Why would anyone ever want to go back to a shit job after knowing good jobs exist out there.
Software development is done from a laptop, in whatever air-conditioned room or office you'd like.
Restaurant work is, by definition, hot, loud, and surrounded by people who treat you like a servant.
You could take two people who have the exact same "knack" for each profession, and one of them would still be much more miserable.
It just sucks more to be in a restaurant than it does to write code. I think that's kind of tough to argue.
Profit sharing, on the other hand...
I wonder what McDonalds would do if you tried it.
I don't see anyone screaming about ditch digging jobs or dishwashers saying we should "save those jobs!" . Backhoes and automatic dishwashers have freed people from meaningless work. We should do the same for everything we can. There's a stereotype of struggling artists working at fast food/coffee shops, imagine how much better human life could be if we freed them to do their real work (the arts).
The analog in software is working for a surveillance company versus architecting your software to cut out needless middlemen.
If we “freed” people from work with welfare, 99.9% of recipients would smoke weed and watch cartoons, not create art. It might still be preferable to having people work low-engagement jobs, but let’s not be too idealistic.
FTR I also think the social safety net should be bare minimum existence, for a single person something like a bunk bed, 3 minimum nutrition meals (simple food like beans, rice etc not steaks...), clothes from a thrift store etc. -- It's more complex when kids are involved because you have to consider that you're essentially growing the future generation so have to consider the repercussions of underinvesting in formation.
This bare minimum would still leave lots to be desired and thusly incentivized (such as money for weed and a tv/netflix) ... But they'd have the time and basic support to do something contributing that only humans can do (at the moment at least) .
Example; There've been some pretty positive things happening around community gardens in some places (when they're not being attacked by self-appointed neighborhood Nannies that don't like to see people gathering together around something beneficial).
Example 2; I remember "maker" clubs and similar community groups doin' lots of really fun activities that benefited more than just the group itself (free community virus cleanups, operating system install parties, community LAN parties - everyone's welcome).
I'm sure that if enough positive activities were presented to society as a whole, you'd just naturally find a growing percentage of humanity doin' good things for each other that used to be considered "work" at some point in the past before whatever "safety net" made it unnecessary to do for survival's sake anymore. People might even still do some of those things at a higher level of quality than others and net themselves some personal gain out of it.
Problem is that humans aren't willing to cooperate with one another enough to even approach any sort of Utopian ideal, and they're often too ready to jump at all the reasons such a thing is "impossible" without being willing to even consider any ideas that might lead to it bein' a reality.
Instead of career tracks you will be offered volunteer tracks.
However, this is a complex solution to the problem and it is prone to being gutted because it will be seen as socialist and once there is full employment politicians will demand everyone to quit their clubs the same way they demand welfare recipients to quit today.
Yeah, that just took the wind outta my sails. I literally give up trying to restore my hopes for humanity or any sort of better future for myself or anyone else. We're all fucked. I need to just accept that.
The Restaurant workers had portable credit card stations to ensure they didn't have to run back and forth to a central register. The garbage trucks had automated arms for picking up trash bins. A busy restaurant had ~1/3rd the staff of a similar restaurant in the US. This compares to my condo association which recently hired snow shovelers who don't have a snow blower because they were cheaper than the ones with a snow blower!
There is no employment crises in Switzerland, and by simple inspection I'd believe that the American service/labor sector could absorb the 3-6x improvement in productivity present internationally without an existential crises.
Which raises the question of why anyone would work, if doing whatever you want and still living a comfortable life was an option.
It sounds like a lovely future, but I don't the automation exists yet to replace all the jobs.
You work to be able to afford nicer clothes, more vidya games, fine whisky, more-comfortable retirement when you do stop working, vacations, better school for your kids, a nicer house with a view, and so on.
The carrot remains the same, the stick is just somewhat smaller.
Let's say you got $20k/yr[0] for free. Do you think you could live comfortably on that? Would you be willing to work to improve your comfort level?
[0] full time US minimum wage with no time off is about $15k/yr
People with literally billions of dollars of wealth still devote time and energy to earning more. I don't think its a stretch to think that people who merely have enough for tolerable food, clothing, shelter will continue to do so.
For a minimum wage worker it is absolutely trivial to see that the tradeoff isn't worth it and subsequently they behave predictably like a lazy person. People acting according to free market logic deserve the stick. Do you see the problem?
If I look at the size of the median house, the price of the median car, that doesn't seem true. If most people would be satisfied with a basic income scheme and nothing more, why aren't most middle class people trying to save half their paycheck and retire before 50?
I agree on one hand, but there's a lot of hand waving and hopeful/wishful thinking built into that answer.
It's very easy to say, "Do something else," but if it were that easy, it wouldn't be an issue in the first place. And if 20 million food service workers all get CS degrees, guess which will be the next industry with plummeting wages and few job opportunities?
We have more people on earth than ever before, but we also have more automation and less need for those people than ever before. It seems like at some point society is going to have some hard questions to answer about employment, pay, etc.
'cept with 20 million CS degrees, the software industry would boom - more code, more customized, bespoke software for every firm, presumably increasing productivity and output and thus, increases wealth.
Not to mention these people may also "stumble" upon something great by being entrepreneurial.
So it'd be strictly better to have 20 million CS degrees holders, vs 20 million hospitality workers.
The customers can suck, yes, but more often than not your boss has the same sociopathic qualities of that mythical asshole geninus founder except you're not working at a startup, you have no equity, you're being paid bare bones, and the boss is not a fucking genius.
Doubling their rate to $20/hr would be a pay cut.
I think people on HN may be forgetting the restaurant industry does not have the same margins as tech ... and close to no one working these jobs (on the employee side) is ever hoping to stay there for decades.
I know it sounds crazy because we've had them for so long, but maybe it's not sustainable to have so many of them?
In any case, this seems like a great area to let the market figure it out. If restaurants go out of business the owners and employees will find something else to do.
I'm not sure more corporate concentration would be a better situation.
And even if it does, why should restaurants be held to a higher standard than other sectors? It's fine for Google and Facebook to buy up everything, but restaurants can't consolidate?
If all the restaurants did at the same time, they could. But if only some do, then the restaurants that underpay their workers will have lower prices and outcompete them out of business.
You can look at this an yet another example of the core problem where consumers don't have visibility into the externalities of the purchasing choices. When picking a restaurant, you see the food prices, but you don't see that one restaurant is more expensive because it treats its workers better. That's an encapsulated abstraction. So we choose based on price, which inadvertently incentivizes restaurants to treat employees like crap.
Also, I consequently completely avoid chain restaurants. I haven't entered McDonald's since 2008 or so.
They are still worried about the long term health of the business because of enternal cost increases (food, supplies, etc.), and are honestly thinking of just shutting down their restaurant and retiring rather than raising prices. They honestly think that if they raise their prices to get the same profit (NOT increase, just to keep it the same!) they have been getting, no one will come anymore because the cost is too much.
They by comparision to a lot of other business are lucky! They don't have to worry about rent at all, and they only have themselves to pay. Both also have other external sources of income (their spouses works), and have absolutely zero debt.
I can't imagine how it is for business that have rent (and possibly rent backpay) and employees they need to pay. I went to Northern VA (Reston) before and after COVID....so see almost all of the local restaurants and a great local grocery store wiped out because the property management were so unforgiving for rent.
I assume "closing down the restaurant and retiring" means they will sell the restaurant (or at least the property), but I am not sure to be honest?
If they want to retire anyways, then good for them. But a lot of businesses have had to raise prices this year, including grocers, which are arguably restaurants only competition. I think folks would understand.
There was a local beer taproom/bottle shop that I frequented a lot for years. Even as craft beer became more prominent and there were more local options, I liked it enough to keep going, but fundamentally there came a point where they raised their prices enough that I started going elsewhere, and once I broke that habit there was never a big reason to go back unless I was meeting someone else there once in a while.
In this case, "enough" was in the 20% range, but given what's happened to food prices lately I don't think 5-10% is a realistic number for a restaraunt either.
Agreed in general terms, but who is going to buy a business that cant even cover its costs? It sounds like this business has a negative expected value without raising prices.
Even in the best of times restaurants are the hardest business to run successfully. These are not the best of times, and (as always) it isn't clear what the future will hold.
Actually, to spend $50K on a fryer system is pretty hard:
https://www.webstaurantstore.com/63853/deep-fryer-with-oil-f...
Fried food's on the menu, boys! Quadruple bypass, here I come.
You might look at this and say charging $4 for X item is already at the edge of reasonable, but when your neighboring restaurants are already at $6 to $8 there is little reason to offer screaming deals. Its just a sign that its time to reprice to $7 to $8 for your own offerings, providing more profit to interest the dual owners moving forward. Reducing hours would also be a good idea for a owner operated business like this!
In addition, type of food matters a lot. A place that sells 'cheap slop on a plate' has lot less price flexibility than a boutique that sells fancy sushi.
I could get a "burek" (pastry with cheese) for 2eur, it's cheap, it fills you up, and you continue with your day.
Or I could order a pizza delivery... pizza used to be in the 6-8eur range if you lived near the restaurant, so for 12, 13 eur I could get two pizzas delivered to my home.
Then "the plague" came, the local pizzeria was closed, delivery was taken over by "app companies" (wolt here), they charge percentages of the food price + delivery cost, so the price of the pizza has gone up to 9-10eur (to cover the wolt fee), and with the delivery fee, we're talking 20-22eur for two pizzas. After the reopenings, the prices in the restaurant are the same as on wolt + with drinks, we're talking close to 30eur for two pizzas and drink.
If bureks cost 2.5eur or even 3eur (50% higher), they're still "cheap", and people will buy them. With pizza going from 12, 14eur to 20-25eur, I can make a huge amount of very good food at home, and saving 15eur to eat healthier makes it worth it.
TLDR: at some price point (that I currently feel we're at now, with some foods atleast here), it isn't worth it anymore to eat out. Everybody might rise their prices, but less people will eat outside, lowering the overall profits of everyone.
Sounds good.
That may be true, but you mentioned they're in the midwest. So am I. I'm in the heavy hitter, Chicago, but I'm from Smalltown, Midwest. I can say that NOTHING is free. Everything is a trade off. All those years of low taxes? Yeah, no one has any money in the midwest. Raising prices may well run people off. They already got the reduced-risk benefit of the midwest for decades, ability to own the building, lower taxes. Having a poorer local clientele was the price for those securities. That was part of the trade off.
You aren't just flat out "getting a better deal" as they probably felt, doing business in the midwest vs coasts. It is absolutely not outright just a "better place to do business". Other than perhaps our environmental stability (the greenhouse effect matters less, no fires, abundant fresh water, no fault lines outside of the St. Louis locale, etc.), those things are starting to matter in a big way, but are of limited benefit to a restaurant.
They already took the benefits from this area. All comes out in the end, but generally the midwest grants you more stability/security, while you end up poorer at retirement than someone that earned more dollars on the coasts. Same end result for them, just like the rest of us.
Not in Minnesota, obviously.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_income_tax#/media/File:T...
$9 or $9.50 for a beer is the most you can charge in some places. You'll suddenly put people off if the beer is $10.
What you can do is charge $9 for a 14 oz beer (previously 16 oz), which is roughly like charging $10.28. Can only do that trick once, though. Or you can increase the size to 24 oz and charge $14.
It has happened to my own fees, and I still should raise them (so I totally understand the fear behind it).
Plus, the United States has significant inflation now, which you aren't used to, but in other countries it's TOTALLY NORMAL to raise prices every year.
This is why hard-enforced industry standards are a good. The situation you describe only exists when the price increase happens for 1 single restaurant and the others stay the same.
However many exist in the region, as long as there's no mandatory system, they're just gonna wait it out, see who gives up first, people stop going there and go other places instead, thus increasing traffic and income without having to raise prices.
This race to the bottom will be won by those who are already the richest and can weather the financial storm the best.
It's a system by which those at the top of the rungs actively prevent anyone from passing them through hard work.
FYI, one of the reasons restaurants don't do this is the tax impacts. When someone tips 20%, there is no sales tax assessed on the tip — the full 20% goes to the worker. If you increase prices by 20%, that is subject to a sales tax (roughly 10% where I live), which amounts to a 1%-2% increase in the total price.
On top of that, moving tips to wages results in more income and payroll taxes being taken out (most workers do not fully report all of their tips, which saves them both income and payroll taxes).
It might not seem like a lot — just a couple percent here and there — but restaurants have pretty thin margins.
I wonder what percentage of tips are still cash tips, which is the only case where you can get away with that. I imagine the percentage of tips that are on a credit card (or even app like Doordash/Seamless) vs. cash has been increasing over time, but I can't find solid numbers.
I think another is the response by the service industry to the requirements of the ACA. Everyone I know that works in a restaurant had their hours capped just below the line at which they'd have to be provided health insurance. Now they have multiple jobs. Juggling more than one job is a PITA, but even more so when your schedules are constantly shifting. These folks need full-time work with a predictable schedule, so they can do things like go to the dentist or take their kid to the zoo.
But, sometimes on Friday nights we’d lock the doors 30 minutes early and clean just so we could get to enjoy our weekends 30 minutes sooner.
That was pretty rare unless a manager happened to be there that evening and also wanted to go enjoy their weekend.
I honestly can’t think of anyone I worked with there that would’ve clocked out and worked for free. I think people would’ve quit quickly. There were like 5 other Dunkin franchisees in the county and they’d all hire you on the spot if you’d done the job before.
As an American living in Australia, I really do miss tipping. I think that on average the restaurant service here is a lot lower. At most restaurants at the medium level (e.g. $25 hamburgers) you pay in advance, and then a waiter will bring the food to you when its ready. Do you need more water? Get it yourself... Ketchup, you have to ask but it won't be offered. The waiters don't care because they are making good money anyway. The only place you get American style service is at the very high end places.
Individual service persons should not be held hostage to your interpretation of their service for their wage. If they're routinely underperforming they'll be sacked.
Tipping can still take place. It just doesn’t need to be obligatory. It’s the difference between a culture of servitude vs a culture of service.
Grilld is a popular mid-range burger chain and their burgers range from AUD $9 to $16.90 (USD $6.60 to $12.40). All advertised retail prices in Australia include 10% GST (good and services tax).
At a more formal restaurant you will likely find a AUD $25 burger but that's about the top end for burger prices.
Although I'd never pay $25 for a burger. (Sydney here)
I remember being particularly unhappy about being served breakfast in Houston while I was there for a conference and being referred to as "sir" - I almost asked the waitress to stop but I realised that would probably cause even more problems so I stayed quiet.
So I would reject the idea that the service in US restaurants is somehow fundamentally "better" than elsewhere - it's just different and some of us actually regard that style of service as a negative.
Generally speaking, Americans are more generous when the money goes to directly to a service person than to a faceless business that sets itself up as a middleman in that relationship.
One reason several of them have mentioned is that many customers are happy to regularly tip much more than 20%, and this is often correlated with the highest spending customers. Making it a non-discretionary 20% puts an artificially low cap on how much they earn from the customers that pay the most. At one time some customers would leave extra cash on the table after paying the "no tipping" bill, but no one carries cash anymore.
Places that net $40/hr have enormous difficulty hiring right now. These are not poorly paying jobs but the broader lifestyle is pretty terrible even at good restaurants, made even more terrible because of the employee shortage.
One overlooked issue is that many restaurant workers in the big cities are originally from "flyover country". When the restaurants closed during COVID, a large number went back home. I was talking to a waitress in the middle-of-nowhere Iowa a few months ago and she had just moved back after several years working in New York City restaurants.
I don't think I've ever seen a sign advertising anything near that for restaurants.
I have friends working these jobs. The consistent pattern is that they are only working the minimum number of shifts required to pay their bills, and they live pretty cheaply. You can't staff the restaurants when all of your employees only want to work 1-2 days a week. They could easily work more hours, and did before COVID, but are choosing not to now. And because restaurant work is extremely flexible and available on-demand, it makes their life flexible.
Many people have adapted their lifestyles to having less money and not working, especially with the generous unemployment benefits. Restaurant workers I know fall into that camp. My SO was receiving $75k/year on unemployment during COVID and turned down jobs paying $125k+ because they discovered the unemployment benefit was sufficient for a lifestyle of doing nothing that they were happy with. Not likely to take a job anytime soon either.
As a tangential observation, while I know many people in this position, none of them is doing much with their newfound free time. Just kind of coasting.
Changing this would mean making explicit and obvious things that were previously implicit and looked past: Front-of-house would need/want/demand a far higher hourly wage than what the back-of-house workers would/cloud, and everybody would have to report ALL their income for taxes.
There is also the problem that unprofessional service staff might not try as hard to please the customers, though maybe those get filtered out over time.
The change is that the IRS now holds the restaurant owner accountable for the taxes due on the tip. The result is that instead of the money going to the server directly, it first has to pass through the hands of the business owner. I don't know if this still goes on, but some years back I recall hearing that some restaurant owners would then "distribute" those tips to other members of the staff — the busboys, kitchen help, etc.
Traditionally, waiters always "tipped out" the busboys and bartenders they worked with, on any given shift, and better service (theoretically) promoted more generosity from the waiter. But now that the business owner has his hand in it, the business owner will operate according to his own interests. The waiter is cut out. The waiter has less control, and less direct incentive. The waiter has less of a payoff.
Rumor has it (or, if you will, common sense has it) that some owners abuse their role as middleman.
The owners always had to withhold taxes from their wait staff, just as your taxes are withheld by your employer.
The difference is that since almost all tips are now on credit cards, the business owner doesn't need to assume the % sales to withhold, and withholds based on virtually all of their employees tips.
The end result is that the wait staff can't commit tax fraud by not reporting tips. The business owner didn't have to report cash tips, only withhold based on a % of sales. They still withhold on % of sales if actual tips are less than the % of sales.
That said, gifts totaling under $15,000 are non-taxable.
https://www.palisadeshudson.com/2013/09/if-gifts-are-not-inc...
Yup. A couple of restaurants in the Seattle area tried this. "20% price increase, no more tipping".
Over time, their employees left, saying they were being paid less.
Remember this the next time you hear the "if you tip 15% or less I'm literally paying to serve you!" (which is also BS. The IRS, if you don't disclose tipped income, assesses a standard rate. If you're truly earning less than that in tips, you can document it and pay less. But almost no-one wants to do that because the IRS is behind the times, and almost all servers make more in tips than that standard rate).
It works perfectly for many tens of millions of restaurant workers in two dozen developed countries around the world.
The bottom line is that it is the workers making the choice you disagree with, in pursuit of their own self-interest. It would be one thing if choosing one policy over the other was revenue-neutral to the restaurants and workers, but empirically that is not the case.
Isn't the solution obvious? Adjust wages/prices to such a degree that it does fully compensate for the missing tips.
This is observed as a shortage - more customers willing to buy a restaurant meal than the restaurants are willing/able to supply at current prices. This must equalize to a new equilibrium with higher prices and fewer restaurants. .
I've over-simplified a lot, but it's pretty much right out of an Econ 101 textbook.
Some of this might be transient - for example the demand curve may shift right again after some time and with COVID well in the past.
The supply curve might shift back up if, for example, government wage supports are reduced.
The only thing preventing restaurants from changing their prices is the 'penguin on an iceberg' issue. You may be correct in raising your prices, but if other restaurants are willing to lose money longer before they raise their prices your business may suffer/fail because of it before the rest of the market changes their prices/wages.
Yes. A so-called “observed shortage” is not a shortage, its just buyers wanting a good without wanting to pay the price it costs to buy in the present market conditions.
A real shortage involves either a constraint which prevents price adjustment to an equilibrium of supply/demand or demand and supply curves shaped in such a way that no equilibrium point exists (which, I guess, is just a very special equilibrium-preventing constraint.)
The solution to an observed shortage of labor is “employers pay more and quit whining”.
The solution (if it is solvable at all) to a real shortage depends on what constraint prevents equilibrium from being reached.
No, that would only be true if there was not an observed shortage; that is, if the current market price was clearing the market with no unmet demand at the market clearing price.
An observed shortage that is not a real shortage means that the market price can rise to the point of market equilibrium without reducing quantity traded. In fact with a normal supply curve shape, the minimum price increase to achieve equilibrium will increase the quantity traded compared to the status quo, as quantity supplied will increase with price. Quantity demanded will be lower than in the status quo, but since the “observed shortage” is quantity demanded being above quantity supplied and, therefore, traded at the current price, that reduction is literally just reducing the “observed shortage” to zero, not reducing quantity traded.
But there can also be a fuzzy area here. There may be situations where most sellers have not raised their prices to respond to decreased supply (for a variety of reasons), and therefore other mechanisms (like who gets in line the earliest) determine who gets to buy. At the same time there may be a small number of sellers who do raise prices (think of the toilet paper hoarders who resell on Craigslist at huge markups). If you consider that higher reseller price to be the "market price" then that wouldn't wouldn't strictly be a shortage, but if you consider the unchanged price to be the market price then that would indeed be a shortage. (In fact, this is why for every natural disaster there are articles with headlines like "Price gouging is actually a good thing; it's the solution to shortages.")
So as a restaurant, very roughly speaking, you basically can raise prices until the line starts to go away. Unfortunately customers can be very stubborn and would rather wait in a 1hr line somewhere else, or not go out at all, for quite a while before eventually coming around to the new normal and accepting your new, higher price.
And you will still probably end up with fewer restaurants along the way, as those least-profitable and with the shortest lines outside, go away.
Restaurant sales are rarely made up of price conscious buyers. Sure there's a limit, but short of the blue light special crowd, most customers are eating out for either variety, social reasons, or being tired of cooking.
Yes. This is exactly the question answered by the concept of supply and demand curves. Of course you can argue about the shape of those curves but their existence is not in doubt.
The normal market solution to a shortage is to raise prices until there is no longer an excess of supply at that higher price
In economics, outcomes are all that matter.
For the first pair, since the change in the supply (a shift of the curve itself, not a walk along the curve) of restaurant meals is negligible except in the case of restaurants closing in aggregate, a left and downward shift of the demand curve (as you note) has the net effect of downward pressure on both prices paid and quantities supplied of meals.
The second pair's supply curve itself shifts left and upward (not downward), which results in a net effect of increasing the prices (wages) of restaurant labor, and decreasing the quantity supplied (number of workers).
A similar analysis could be performed from the new state of each pair: the first pair might actually see its supply curve shift left and upward due to these dynamics (restaurants may close in aggregate), causing the quantity of meals supplied to decrease further and prices of meals to rise, possibly though not necessarily up to the level they were before. For the second pair, demand for workers might increase in aggregate, resulting in a right and upward shift in the demand curve, which would further ratchet wages upward (barring another supply curve shift) and would help increase the number of workers to a level closer to what it was before any of these shifts took place.
This is the key... the problem isn't really the market... it's the market interference.
First COVID and the "lockdowns" (effective or not)... and then the resulting "free" money that makes it more lucrative to be on unemployment than working a job.
$665/40=$16.63
The financial incentive to not work is strong. Add in 40 extra hours of free time...
Hilton Head is a popular vacation destination, but as development started radiating inland towards I95, all of the workers are priced out. The housekeeper at the hotel I stayed at in 2019 commuted 2.5 hours daily, and restaurants started reducing hours due to labor shortages. COVID made it worse, but the problem existed because you can’t work in most places without covering the cost of operating a car.
My understanding this year is that popular restaurants require reservations 60+ days in advance.
There may be some demand shifts at the low end from sit down to fast casual, but those are the places where tipped workers are paid the least. A waiter at a good steakhouse is making a good living, an IHOP waiter makes $10/hr or less.
At the low end, I think those workers have shifted to curbside retail. I’d guess the average Target has 12-30 more staff to handle curbside orders alone.
1. Most waiters don't get health benefits 2. Most waiters don't get retirement plans 3. Most waiters are at the whim of the restaurant managers 4. There's only so many tables you can turn in a shift, and tips average under 20%. 5. Most waiters don't get any PTO
Say you have a four-top that has meal service of $120 (booze tips usually go to cocktail waitresses, wine goes to waiter). An average section for a "good" steakhouse will have no more than 5 tables per waiter; otherwise service sucks.
So each table earns the waiter $24 in tips. With 5 tables, that's $120 per turn. High end steakhouses don't turn fast; again, the appeal is having a long, hearty meal. So maybe 2.5 turns on a good night. That would be $300 in tips. But then you have to tip out. Busboy gets $25 (helps you turn faster, helps with some service), dishwasher gets $10 (should get $100), hostess gets $20 (so your section gets sat promptly), and at least $50 for the line cooks who are the real stars. Now you're done to $195. That needs to be reported as income, so it gets held back by mgmt for tax.
You get 3 good shifts a week, and 2 crap shifts. After a week you've made $195x3 plus $125x2 for a grand total (pretax) of $835/week. So your gross is $44K. I'm ignoring the base hourly wage because it's usually nothing.
$44k isn't bad money. It's above the nationwide median, but considering all the downsides, it's not "a good living." If you get sick, tough shit you lose out. If the chef jacks up the menu, you lose out. And it's a young person's gig. People want their waiters to be young and attractive, not balding and showing grey hairs.
I've heard of bartenders making more than $100k/yr, (but still with no benefits).
Maybe my view is skewed from seeing prices in expensive cities, but I think the beef alone at a good steakhouse is gonna run you more like $75-$100 per person, and that's not even for the high-end wagyu (which will probably run $150-$250 for most cuts). Then add another $10-$30 per person for appetizers and side dishes, and maybe dessert on top of that.
I feel like it's pretty hard to walk away from a good steakhouse spending less than $80 or so, even if you have nothing to drink. And the more common case is probably quite a bit more than that...
I think well educated professionals sometime miss what reality is for millions of people. $44k for a few shifts is better and more reliable income than a retail gig. The similar premium gig for a low skill person is probably a janitor.
In reality, half of the US population lives in a state with a regular minimum wage for waiters (California, New York, Washington, and a bunch of other states), and the other half averages $5/hr which is $7800/yr if you work 30 hours a week. Also there's cash tips that aren't reported on taxes. And like others have said, you're estimating $30/person at a steakhouse which is TGI Fridays prices.
Put that together, and you're looking at the equivalent of six figures pre-tax for 5 nights of work, with no email at night or on-call. Sounds pretty good to me.
In my area some waitstaff also make $3.50/hr because the company assumes they make tips. Some also hold all your credit card tips and give them to you on the paycheck...so it isn't all roses.
We have similar issues up in Charleston, with my girlfriend ‘s restaurant in an HCoL (Mt. Pleasant) really struggling to find staff beyond the 16-26 “living with mom & dad” crowd where HCoL is little of a factor.
I would add I have at least a half-dozen friends in BoH that intentionally (an)used our state pay benefits for a free vacation to smoke weed and play X-Box though sadly citing it as their first vacation in a forever. There’s definitely a problem a multi-faceted problem here.
"My understanding this year is that popular restaurants require reservations 60+ days in advance." >> This is what a shortage looks like. Long lines and empty shelves. People who are willing to pay the advertised price, but can't because there isn't anything to buy.
"started reducing hours due to labor shortages." >> Meaning that there is more demand for labor than supply at the current price (wage). The supply curve for labor moved down, causing a shortage of labor at the current price. That's a 'shortage' as perceived by businesses that don't want to pay the actual market clearing price/wage.
In your example, a labor shortage is leading to a restaurant shortage. In both cases caused by changes in the supply and/or demand curves (down and/or right, respectively).
You could also go farther upstream to the housing market and say that because the supply curve of housing moved down, house prices went up, and that caused labor's supply curve to move down accordingly.
All of these things ultimately mean fewer things and less stuff, at higher prices.
Then those the are unwilling to raise server wages will either die due to lackmof labour or become ghost kitchen fire the serving staff and do take out and delivery exclusively.
I think delivery and take out is going to stick around in a big way. there is less expectation to tip the restaurant when not eating on premises. and it think wage regulation of gig work is coming for the likes of ubereats doordash and grubhub
on the cheap end you will have take home food with no tips and on the high end a living wage will become standard with less pressure to tip
Anecdotally I've stopped eating at restaurants/food carts that I absolutely loved when they've raised prices about that much
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You aren't gonna get all restaurants onboard with this at once unless you outlaw tipping, and I don't see that happening.
Long term it likely would help, but short term it would make it harder, not easier, to get employees.
In no small part because so much of the tip wages are under the table.
In the vacation community where I live, there are two grocery/delis about a mile apart from each other. One is at a marina, the other is at a beach. They have almost the same business offering. Traditionally, both are fully mobbed during the sunny seasons.
Two weeks ago, I visited the one I usually go to -- at the marina. They had a sign at the front door, "Due to the labor shortage..." and they weren't operating their deli counter. No sandwiches. When I sent inside, it was empty. No customers. The one employee at the register was on their phone. Nothing going on. A couple of people pulled up in their cars, read the sign, pulled out and left immediately.
Drove up the road a mile to the other one. No sign -- it was busy like it usually was. Full house, busy counters and registers.
My son asked me why the other place wouldn't just raise their wages.. I couldn't answer, but I guessed it was more on a matter of principle than calculated reality. There's no way they were surviving or thriving. I joked that maybe the owner was an old cahoot who remembered when a soda was $0.05 and there was no way they were going to raise their hourly wages to $15 or more.
There used to be some sort of a tradeoff, there used to be a ton of jobs that didnt pay well, but they were not miserable places to work at, that was kinda the tradeoff, you know - you like, didnt get a ton of money, but the workplace wasnt awful. Those jobs still exist but they're rarer.
The other part is that misery, fire bad customers and bad managers. It really isn't that difficult to be polite.
Indeed. Many small businesses can't even afford sponsoring a sick leave directly AFAIK. At my location (in Europe) you pay a part of your monthly wage to the social security fund and once you get sick it covers your salary in the amount like if you kept working (and also pays you basic pension once you get too old).
In France, the "social security" (run by the state) doesn't cover the full salary, not even close. It only covers up to 50% [0], and only after three days (if you have 10 single sick days, you lose 10 days' pay).
You have to have your own insurance ("mutuelle", usually chosen by your employer — which you cannot refuse, but can augment) to have a better deal.
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[0] It covers 50% of the salary, but the maximum salary taken into account is 1.8 times the minimum wage, which is 2 798,24 € before tax.
https://www.ameli.fr/assure/remboursements/indemnites-journa...
Source: am on disability.
A crude comparison of business formation between France (with socialized healthcare / retirement) and the US (without those), shows that the numbers are fairly close. Data is for 2020, which saw a 4% rise for France, whereas in the US numbers were stable. France also doesn't have as much of an "entrepreneurial" culture as the US, meaning people are much more likely to "look for a job" rather than found their own business.
France: Population: 67M, 850 000 new Business, 12 700 / 1M pop.
US: Population: 331M, 3 600 000 Businesses, 11 000 / 1M pop.
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How do you pay for it?
Will it be run by the same entities that are having so much trouble balancing Social Security and preventing Medicare fraud?
https://www.propublica.org/article/we-asked-prosecutors-if-h...
I have a feeling that wage increases will come, but there will be less employees and the remaining better paid employees will be augmented with technology in order to serve more customers ie more automation
Automation is coming regardless.
"48 percent of all US employees work for small businesses, down from 52 percent in the early 2000s."
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/institute/research/small-busin...
The NYSSCPA didn't agree with you in 2017 either:
"Since 2014, the latest year for which there is census data, this is no longer the case. At this point, 39.2 percent were employed at either a large or very large company, while 26.5 percent worked at mid-sized companies and 34.3 percent worked at small companies."
https://www.nysscpa.org/news/publications/the-trusted-profes...
Atkinson & Lind ("Big is Beautiful") didn't agree with you in 2019 either, specifically taking on what they call the "myth of small business as the engine of job creation"
https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/small-business-job-creati...
The Small Business Administration didn't agree with you in 2020:
"According to small business statistics from SBA, small businesses make 99.9% of US businesses and employ 47.1% of US employees."
The suburbs are especially bad....
The notion that a deli would simply close up shop because they couldn't hire people at a wage they deemed reasonable means they either couldn't be bothered to try higher prices/quality - or for some reason they are unable to (e.g. high debt service costs). The building sitting empty and idle costs the business money, so it's surprising they don't at least try something.
Pizza places that would be jammed from 6 to 8 PM with a line for pickup are now ghost towns. The one I was in last night at 8:15, workers outnumbered customers (dine-in plus pickup).
The roast beef place that I’d frequent on a particular errand went from $6.50 for a large roast beef to $9.50. What used to be a 15-deep line at lunch is now “walk straight to the register and order”.
Customers are only willing to pay so much for food. That well isn’t infinitely deep. (Maybe some of the gap is COVID, but people are out doing plenty of other things, other restaurants seem to be doing well, and these places were jammed during the pickup-only phases of COVID, so I think pricing is a significant driver of reduced volume.)
I suspect I'll now mostly eat out when the company is keeping me on the road (and paying for it), but will overall eat a lot more at home now.
Probably healthier anyway, but this can't be good for restaurant owners and workers.
Food has supply and demand like anything else. People have to eat, but they don't have to eat at the delhi.
For example, if they charged $50 a sandwich it would probably not work. Maybe the business owner is just being stupid, but its also not impossible that they ran the numbers and they just didn't add up. That happens sometimes in business. I havent seen their books, i dont know what the numbers on their business look like.
* Unpaid sick days
* The limitation is the other way around, they don't want to give a single pool of 30 paid days off, you're limited to 15 vacation days
* If you have a good relationship with your manager, it's a soft limit and they'll allow you to go over as long as it's not abused
* If you're part-time/hourly, trading days/hours with a co-worker
Our HR department combined vacation days and sick days into one pool several years ago when they realized most of us were faking sick days to get more vacation time.
Looking back, all of me previous jobs have offered 10 days sick pay and I've always assumed it is a de-facto standard over here.
It's not the dystopia its made out to be but even in the best states the inconsistencies between the layers of protection and myriad of rules cause a lot of people to fall through the cracks.
Also, if you work a service job and miss too many shifts due to illness, they'll just fire you for being unreliable.
I think we might be backgrounding one particular reason too much: customers are a headache. One of the subheadings of the article is "They're just yelling the entire time".
I find it interesting that this hasn't been discussed as much, maybe because we are culpable? Maybe at one point of time we were that high maintenance customer? Maybe there is a general culture problem we all have regarding how we treat strangers, especially those who are bound to serve us to an extent. And looking at that need for transformation might be hard on our ego than the transformation of structural non-industry-specific inequities.
I've worked retail before (Apple Retail, Genius Bar specifically, so probably one of the more decent and better paid retail jobs in the grand scheme of things), and dealing with customers was one of the primary reasons I changed careers.
You only need so many people looking down on you because of nothing other than your job, to make you want to do something else.
Some of them are Americans, and they tend to find working here more of a drag than in the States. They mostly complain about people being generally rude, followed by big parties each having extremely specific requests and later quarreling about the check (as in who has to pay for what).
They also mention that they usually make less money here, because although the wages are higher, they don't usually get any tips. Also, cost of living is higher (Paris, as opposed to US cities other than NY / LA / SF).
Like, There was a cultural shift some decades ago, and as corny as it sounds, the shift in culture began when we went from having a "Personnel Department" to "Human Resources" - resources are something you often extract and use up, to the point we have a special way to call out resources that are renewable.
As much as I hate the "words matter" phrase, I think here they clearly do, as they've clearly subtly altered peoples thinking about people who work for them, and their disposability.
It was an attempt to "professionalize" the work that Personnel departments did and make it sound more important.
It meant that you could have "Vice President of Human Resources" which sounds as "impressive" as "Vice President for Manufacturing".
It also leads towards today's stupidities where these same people are called things like "Leader for People and Culture" or some other BS touchy-feely title.
Employers do what they can to commoditize and standardize their use of workers. Anything to make them more fungible makes them more replaceable and therefore easier to a) lower costs (ie wages) and b) automate.
I wish you would have stayed on topic with the idea of customer culture issues, or lack thereof.
Who do you think allows customers to get away with this bullshit? Spineless management.
Everything goes back to this as a root problem.
If you (general - not you) think you could improve how you treat people, please work on improving, but most people here are probably fine and have nothing to feel guilty about.
I think protecting this enviroment is also important for middle class if only for selfish reasons. As if you have the fall-back of 'stuff it I'll go flip burgers for a while' then middle class jobs are more protected as employees know some people will walk out for the lower paid but stress free job as its an option, which in turn flows up the chain at each level.
That is exactly the same as raising wages.
Outside the USA (or at least HN), its common for companies to negotiate remuneration on the total cost to company [1].
This includes wages, taxes (e.g. training taxes), pension, health-care, phone, etc, etc.
Its weird that commentators here somehow think that companies don't incur these freebies you want as real costs.
As a customer, I want to see that the people who provide me the goods and services I need and want to function in society are as well treated as I would treat myself and nothing less.
If they're sitting down but upbeat and attentive, I'm satisfied.
I'm skeptical that a business would choose to go out of business rather that give raises. Have you considered that margins are tighter than you think? I know small businesses like that.
I for one support raising minimum wage, but the automation / negative outcomes of menial labor being too expensive to hire for will happen whether or not the official minimum wage is increased. UBI is another debate entirely, however I'd also argue that UBI in time harms poor people more than it really helps them and just enriches huge companies and land-lords.
Conservatives will block any rise in the minimum wage, but couldn't completely block additional unemployment benefits.
Progressives would back a rise in the minimum wage, but had to deliver on relief for the unemployed working class, so they did just that.
The secondary effect of rising wages was probably only something that conservatives were expecting.
I'm a supporter of the idea of UBI but I just can't see the incentives panning out realistically.
Whereas if the federal government creates more money (via debt) and gives it out direct aid to the people, it goes right into the consumer market. Prices rise across the board, getting the CPI to the target level without the Federal Reserve having to lower rates.
There will always be inflation as long as the monetary policy is to create inflation. But government spending at least chooses somewhere explicit for it to end up, rather than the default option of just inflating financial assets (which we've had quite enough of).
The alternative of forcing people to go to work while covid-19 sick, or being laid off and facing total abject poverty, and such... well not very attractive.
Prices & wages going up was going to be inevitable with inflation, which was on the plate, even if unemployment was never expanded and we forced the working poor to work, or eat our of dumpsters.
If you get X money per month of unemployment and X+20% to work, then yeah, if it's not a fulfilling work (and let's be honest, what work at that price is fulfilling), you'll rather stay at home. Once the "free money" dries up, people will be forced to take the shitty jobs too, but due to many failed businesses, there will be even less jobs available, and this skews the jobs-vs-workers ratio, making wages even lower.
Making it easier (and cheaper) to start a business would create more jobs, raising the price of work, and replace the shitty jobs with better one (in terms of pay and conditions).
Enforcement is a farce.
Interestingly, the illegal immigrants generally got paid way more per hour (~30% higher) and also generally paid taxes via ITIN number. Eventually our restaurant got “raided” and the owners called around to find them new jobs at other places around town.
One guy lived with me for awhile. He eventually went back to Mexico because he saved a bunch of money and wanted to spend it on a real degree/career. The universities in our area told him they’d take his money and let him audit classes but wouldn’t be able to give him any proper documentation like a transcript or degree.
The reason republicans are so hardline on immigration is because "illegal" workers are really easy to coerce and exploit.
They don't call the health department when you make them shit in a hole in the field. They don't call OSHA when you deny them access to water out in the field. They don't call the attorney general when you pay them by what they pick, or only start counting their hours after they've walked half an hour to the field they're picking, and stop paying them the second they stop picking instead of when they get back to their vehicle...because you're too cheap to provide a truck or bus and they'll walk for free. They don't call the police when one of the supervisors smacks them around for accidentally damaging some equipment. Etc.
If we replaced every millenial deadbeat who complains about how hard it is to be a barista with a hard working immigrant our country would be better off!
I don't think many companies are powerful against ICE, especially small restaurants... there are probably political reasons why they choose to target employees and not employers.
This is true, but obviously the rate at which this happens will matter.
In 1900, 41 percent of the US workforce was employed in agriculture. Due to increasing use of technology, 70 years later only 4 percent of the labor force worked in agriculture. If that loss of jobs had happened in say 20 years instead of 70 years, it obviously would have been a much more painful transition.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/44197/13566_ei...
Labor force participation has been falling for a long time as labor sellers (employees) fail to find an adequate price for their labor from employers (the buyer). Many economists assumed this was the fault of the labor seller for not having skills attractive to buyers. It's also possible that in certain segments employers were using labor in-efficiently, or simply miss-pricing the value of a worker.
Which is a long winded way of saying that a higher minimum wage may bring more labor into the market, while simultaneously forcing businesses to leverage automation to improve the productivity of said labor.
Given the massive redistribution of wealth in the US for the last half a century it's pretty clear that's not true, and that what's really been going on is businesses have been squeezing "labor sellers" to death.
I also simply choose to eat out a maximum of 1 or 2 times a month. I can afford 20GBP, I just have better options.
In fact their time can be far more valuable (into what money they can command by doing some extra work), so that the opportunity cost between cooking and buying lunch to make it not worth to cook.
So I guess restaurants that sells food are having a hard time, but restaurants that sells a service have a different story to tell.
[1] See how in the first case it's "to eat in a restaurant" and in the second it's "to go to a restaurant". To me that's the big difference : when you are here to fulfill a natural need (eating), you don't want to pay a lot for it, while you are here to have a nice time out, you will gladly pay more.
If everyone raises wages, they have to raise prices. For the restaurant, this means they have to charge more for the same service, and they have to pay more for their supply chain (because they also increased their prices).
For the worker, that means they will pay more for things and services they need/want, because every other business will suffer from the same issues and be forced to raise their prices.
All this to say, the worker's purchasing power decreases if everyone raises wages, and that is the definition of inflation.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-02/56975-Minimum-Wage....
The second point, in the first paragraph:
> Higher prices for goods and services—stemming from the higher wages of workers paid at or near the minimum wage, such as those providing long-term health care—would contribute to increases in federal spending.
The whole thing is an interesting read, actually
Not really. The relative elasticity of various goods and services (including labour) will determine which parties ultimately shoulder the cost. The additional costs could cut through margins or they could be passed on.
This only holds if a restaurant's costs are entirely wages, but actual average labor costs for restaurants (at least in the US) are only about 30%.
That’s only if everyone makes about the same, which is less and less true due to rising wealth inequality. As it stands now, there are people making $200k/year and people making $30k/year, raising prepared food prices isn’t going to chip off everyone’s income the same way.
A rise in interest rates would have much more effect on upper income buying power than a $5 increase in the cost of lunch.
Depends heavily on specifics. Like, which goods and services? How much of someone's purchases do they represent? Are they substitutable? Restaurants deal in the substitutable and minority part.
The relationship between per-unit price and labor cost per unit also matters quite a bit. If labor costs per unit are small, it may not take a big per-unit price bump in order to give labor a substantial raise.
Others will change their product offerings to maintain margins.
And some will misjudge the situation, or were too close to the bone to survive in this environment and fold.
I don't think that you've met a lot of small business, owners, then.
I run a small business. I know other small business owners. An MBA-like focus on hyperefficiency is rare. Usually people have their views about how the world should work and act in accordance with that.
Some people will come around, but plenty of others will fail to adapt, go out of business and blame "the economy".
This entire thread is totally out of touch with reality.
It does take razor-sharp focus and constant innovation to work out how you can increase margin, though. You can't just arbitrarily raise prices without offering any additional value and expect your business to stay alive.
The small business I worked at previously was closer, but the owner worked longer hours, possibly for less pay, and absolutely had more responsibilities, than I ever did working there. And I assume that led to a divided focus, and in turn, not being able to focus solely on optimizing every dollar.
I think I understand the miscommunication now. Sorry for that!
I didn't mean to suggest that you need an MBA to run a small business, just that you need to be constantly optimising, innovating and focusing on raw numbers. I don't have an MBA, but from what I understand this is how MBAs are taught to think.
>I find your take slighly condescending but I want to give you a benefit of the doubt - what makes you think small businesses aren't focused on optmizing their margins?
Maybe it's the people we talk to? I definitely do know guys that are creative and sharp, but for every one of them there are 3 or 4 people who stubbornly refuse to adapt to changes in the market, fail to capture even low hanging fruit in terms of margin (big one is eCommerce businesses that make no effort to minimise postage costs), spend huge amounts of time on activities that bring in minimal value to the business and make no effort to expand into new product categories/markets or make use of new technology. It's just not how many people think.
It seems to be especially popular in the street food business and food industry in general over here: someone thinks that surely one can produce decent <insert whatever here> at reasonable cost and earn some good profit from it, and indeed they can, the customers are happy, the business is growing a-a-and then something happens and the market self-corrects: the price grows to the level of the competitors', and the quality drops to the competitors' level too, now the "playing field" is level again (all products are more or less equally mediocre and equally expensive), wait about a year for another entrepreneur to rinse and repeat this cycle.
There must be some objective reason why that happens though I am really not sure what it is. But whatever that reason is, it seems to have been working pretty much without exceptions for the past ten years at least.
Distrust in their employees coupled with excessive monitoring on consumables and the like, I think is the most common.
I've patronized, worked at, or know people who worked at places where the employees are doing everything they can to keep a business running despite the owner....often doing what they can to keep said owner from getting their hands too deep into daily operations or in contact with customers.
If they can't give a decent wage [1] then they were not a viable business to begin with, regardless whether they can find some poor souls to work for them. If it takes a mandatory minimum wage to reveal that and bring their demise, so be it - let them stop putting a band-aid on part of the economy and have better businesses take their place.
[1] Which is not the same as: a wage someone will capitulate and agree to work for - there are always e.g. unregistered immigrants, single mothers working 2 jobs, people in emergecy desperately needing anything they can get, kids who just see it as a temp gig to get some pocket money but otherwise live with their parents, and so on, that are desparate for near substinence - or even below substinence...
Yep. 1000%. If your workers need to be on any form of government assistance, you're being subsidized.
Mr. Factory Owner does all sorts of bullshit like paying unlivable wages, not having any employees working over the number of hours at which they'd have to pay benefits, and so on.
But guess who's always got enough money to donate to republican and libertarian campaigns, and has very strong opinions about 'pulling yourself up by your bootstraps' and how wasteful government assistance is?
I suspect that some business owners will need to take a paycut in order to stay in business.
(I'm sure there are plenty of founders reading this article who sometimes pay their employees more than they pay themselves.)
Had to help a number of people applying to the local equivalent of a labour small claims court.
I can perfectly see a dysfunctional small company draining their business away by just not changing. Happens all the time on Kitchen Nightmares.
So they need to adjust their prices.
If employees are going to flood the market and you can keep paying the wages you were paying pre-pandemic, then it makes sense to hold out, since if you raise wages now, you can't really reduce them later. You lose out on sales now because you're short staffed, but you keep your costs low in perpetuity.
On the other hand, if that's not going to happen, then clearly you should raise wages and prices now, so you don't miss out on those sales.
At this point, though, I think the folks who raise wages/prices because they think the latter case is true are going to cause a significant enough rise in the effective minimum wage (not the legal one, but the least you can practically pay and actually get employees) that everyone's going to have to raise wages anyway.
It's an interesting game theory problem - if everyone's going to hold out on pay raises, then you should too. If a critical mass of people are going to raise wages in the next few months, though, then you should raise wages ASAP to get the best employees and not miss out on a summer of sales. Luckily this appears to be one of the rare game theory problems that'll actually work out well for the little guy.
Your “example” is of a state that had a lower unemployment than the national average before ending extended unemployment benefits seeing not significantly different than the national rate of decline in unemployment in the brief period since cutting extended benefits, not an example of more rapid drop after cutting benefits.
You'd be better looking at rates of employment.
Anarchy. I don't see this happening. Getting people off those checks sounds impossible - if you want to win another election.
If their risk calculations are off, that's an opportunity for competitors.
Restaurants are the worst fucking industry to invest in.
Also, who staffs Wendy’s from morning until schools let out during the day? I haven’t seen seasonal fast food restaurants anywhere near me.
The simplicity of each individual job means that nobody ever has just one job at a fast food place. Stick around for any amount of time and you'll get rotated through every available position.
That's why the pay is low, because the skill set is widely accessible. I'm not sure why people insist that these kind of jobs are teaching valuable skills.
All that is happening is the basic process of working. They could learn it in any context, at any point in their lives. There is no justification to pay people starvation wages.
For someone that didnt go to college, seeing a 2yr stint on a resume as a fast food worker tells me more about that persons work ethic, reliability, and general sense of getting stuff done vs your avg grad.
Its not only skills but its the information being conveyed
Why shouldn't Sandwich Maker be a viable career? They definitely contribute more to society than HR professionals or agile coaches.
Sandwiches typically contain fresh ingredients (we'd call a gresy heart attack patty between two buns a burger), and Wendy's is a completely different chain that sells dairy products and hot dogs.
If I fundamentally disagree with fast food as objects of consumption than I might think every job in this field should not be viable. There are costs to society (“externalities”) that places like Wendy’s are not held responsible for (obesity epidemic).
All said, Sandwich Maker is a viable career, to me, if its in a boutique/gourmet shop where the food is prepared from scratch and with precision care. The prices will be higher, extra skill is involved, and then the Maker can command a higher wage.
The meme of whether or not fast food is a viable/respectful career is just a manifestation of more fundamental problems with growth optimized capitalism.
This is a valid point. Western society should be making an effort to ensure that there are cheap, convenient, healthier fast food options like what you see in Asia.
My comment was more in response to the parent, who was drawing a distinction between "real jobs" and "entry level jobs". I believe we should treat people in low-skill jobs with more respect, as they actually produce things we need and want as a society. Many people in "real jobs", on the other hand, produce (or facilitate the production of) nothing.
There was also the geometry of the slice to be refined: the precise relationships between the width and height of the slice and also its thickness which would give the proper sense of bulk and weight to the finished sandwich: here again, lightness was a virtue, but so too were firmness, generosity and that promise of succulence and savour that is the hallmark of a truly intense sandwich experience.
The proper tools, of course, were crucial, and many were the days that the Sandwich Maker, when not engaged with the Baker at his oven, would spend with Strinder the Tool Maker, weighing and balancing knives, taking them to the forge and back again. Suppleness, strength, keenness of edge, length and balance were all enthusiastically debated, theories put forward, tested, refined, and many was the evening when the Sandwich Maker and the Tool Maker could be seen silhouetted against the light of the setting sun and the Tool Maker’s forge making slow sweeping movements through the air trying one knife after another, comparing the weight of this one with the balance of another, the suppleness of a third and the handle binding of a fourth.
Three knives altogether were required. First there was the knife for the slicing of the bread: a firm, authoritative blade which imposed a clear and defining will on a loaf. Then there was the butter-spreading knife, which was a whippy little number but still with a firm backbone to it. Early versions had been a little too whippy, but now the combination of flexibility with a core of strength was exactly right to achieve the maximum smoothness and grace of spread.
The chief amongst the knives, of course, was the carving knife. This was the knife that would not merely impose its will on the medium through which it moved, as did the bread knife; it must work with it, be guided by the grain of the meat, to achieve slices of the most exquisite consistency and translucency, that would slide away in filmy folds from the main hunk of meat. The Sandwich Maker would then flip each sheet with a smooth flick of the wrist on to the beautifully proportioned lower bread slice, trim it with four deft strokes and then at last perform the magic that the children of the village so longed to gather round and watch with rapt attention and wonder. With just four more dexterous flips of the knife he would assemble the trimmings into a perfectly fitting jigsaw of pieces on top of the primary slice. For every sandwich the size and shape of the trimmings were different, but the Sandwich Maker would always effortlessly and without hesitation assemble them into a pattern which fitted perfectly. A second layer of meat and a second layer of trimmings, and the main act of creation would be accomplished.” ― Douglas Adams, Mostly Harmless
If that were true, then DMV employees would have to pay for the privilege of working there.
In all seriousness, though, there are huge swathes of people working in bullshit jobs, and many of them are well-compensated. There are power dynamics, misinformation and far too much complexity at play to simply say "society places more value on the work performed by people in higher paying jobs".
Value creation can be used to increase that power, but there are many organizations (picture the NCAA or your favorite employer of H-1B1s maybe?) that have put in the hard work to make sure the work of value creation doesn't give individuals too much power to extract value.
There are many jobs that are low paid because they are low skilled and have low barriers to entry, but otherwise very useful to society e.g. refuse collectors.
Edit, I'm being sarcastic. It's glib to suggest that somehow all of these businesses can just magically raise prices. It's a complex situation.
And unemployment has to be paid by someone too...
During the pandemic, restaurants lobbied hard as hell against restrictions and cheated at every opportunity what restrictions they were obliged to follow. Our governor ordered bars to be shut down around 9pm during a surge last year and everyone joked that was great because it meant apparently the 'rona only came out to infect people after 10pm.
I really wanted to meet a prospective date and we wanted to be as safe as possible. We scoured websites, google, and and social media for information about outdoor seating accommodations. Whatever information was available was exceedingly vague, despite it being a year into the pandemic when you'd think any savvy business owner would have information like that readily available. When restaurants had outdoor seating listed as available, most of them had seating fees and some insane minimum order requirements.
Fuck the restaurant industry.
The central government and state government take limited to no responsibility for healthcare, child care, retirement, sick leave, pto etc.
The central justice system has agreed that corporations have a duty to their stakeholders above their business and so growth is paramount.
As a result, restaurants, esp independent ones, struggle to find ways to make ends meet and corporations (aka McDonalds) see no incentive to raise wages. The easiest and most obvious example of this playing out is imo that McDonalds pays labor more elsewhere than in the US.
Whatever.
So, there's no way they can afford to increase any expense, if they were to do that, they'd be out of business right away, so they continue floating away.
These business owners are unfit to do business; so what is happening is economic darwinism. RIP.
But otherwise had no issue jacking their prices up to the heavens...
Previously people accepted the small amount, but now they aren't because they're (currently still) being paid to stay home in most cases.
By your assessment, though, it seems the seller's market is not caused by the minimum wage, but by COVID relief packages?
Also, I'm sorry you're getting downvoted. I only downvote if someone goes against community guidelines, and not if I simply disagree with them
I think it is important to distinguish a couple of things.
If there are businesses out there, like maybe McDonalds or Walmart, who are easily able to pay $20 per hour instead of $7.50, and are choosing not to do so because of a desire for even larger profits, then yes, this is evidence of a mild seller's market for labor and also a lack of market savvy on behalf of McDonalds/Walmart.
If those corps are already offering $20 an hour and benefits and still people are not showing up to work, then it is a roaring seller's market for labor, and must in theory be caused by some other external source that is causing laborers to feel $20 is too low. Where are they going, what are they doing? Are they taking the opportunity to pursue a degree? Are they staying at home playing video games? Have they all found a job making $42 an hour talking on the phone at home? We would need the data to answer these questions.
But in the exact case of restaurants, I genuinely think most of them do not have the money. I haven't ever in my life met a restaurant owner who has a stable financial situation with a paid off mortgage, nice car, and 3 kids put through college already having become cardiologists or something like that. But I've met a lot of other people who have done all that. And I've met a lot of restaurant owners too.
I think that all they can afford is $7.50-$12.50 an hour in most cases, with no benefits. And now that city centers have seen a good portion of their residents with lots of disposable income move away, I suspect that most restaurants have lost the financial base that used to support them.
I saw a video of a restaurant owner during the pandemic in NYC who cut his staff from 45 to 3 and was just barely able to pull it together and survive. Was he paying his people more than $15 an hour? Don't know.
Your comment is informative, but, come on. This "fiasco" is supply in demand in action. When it (occasionally) favours the workers, it doesn't deserve to be described so negatively.
1) Go to college and earn a degree for 120-240k dollars
2) Start paying rent, owning your own car, healthcare, food, and leisure activities.
Both of these are expensive directions to take. It used to be that someone could pay for school with a summer job, why shouldn't it be now? It doesn't appear the education changed at all.
It's not that he "shouldn't". Rather, many businesses cannot afford to both pay teenage employees $20/h, and also to not raise the prices. Some businesses can raise prices just fine, but others are not able to, as the customers will stop buying at higher price point. For example, if all groceries doubled their food prices, I'd still buy food (though maybe less than before), and likely spend more on it than I used to. However, if all restaurants doubled their prices, I'd pretty much stop eating out altogether, except special occasions.
It's obvious that teenagers can't make 1k/hr without breaking the economy - but I don't see any reason why $20/hr would be outside of historic norms. In 1981 the minimum wage was ~$3.25/hr, translating to ~9.71/hr today. Given the advances in technology that have driven a more than 2x increase in real economic productivity over that period why shouldn't the starting wage be $20/hr for teenagers?
> Given the advances in technology that have driven a more than 2x increase in real economic productivity over that period why shouldn't the starting wage be $20/hr for teenagers?
The growth in economic productivity hasn't been uniformly distributed across industries, and it's been pretty low exactly in the industries depending on cheap, low skill labor. What are the advances in technology between now and 1981 that made restaurants 2x more productive?
Microwaves, dishwashers, steam-injection ovens, just-in-time logistics for raw ingredient deliveries, credit cards, online ordering...
They certainly reduce the potential for theft/shrinkage! It used to be that you needed a trusted business manager/employee to manage the register, now anyone can do it and it's much harder for someone to siphon funds. All transactions are now viewable to management to more easily see what's selling and what's not.
Now the problem with this is that the effect is to lower expectations for wages by taking advantage of financial literacy. Someone working for them for 4 years receiving a raise every 6 months earns $2/hr more. The employer/seasoned employees point to this and say that a starting wage $2/hr higher is unreasonable. Unfortunately the fixed rate wage increases diminish over time, and if you think that moving into management/higher level positions would entitle you to more money... then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.
When employers mirror this strategy or take other similar approaches, then you end up with wages that are depressed relative to the value of the labor being provided ( or the opportunity value if that labor was applied to other activities, or used more efficiently ).
McDonalds manages to make profits in EU/AU/NZ/CA etc while (mnostly) complying with local minimum wages and conditions. The Big Mac index shows that their actual prices are within a narrow band compared to the US.
They (and other megacorps like Walmart) exploit both their workers and their customers, who end up paying the workers via the inefficient means of tax credits and poverty relief instead of the corporations/businesses being required to pay proper wages and contribute to their local communities via taxation.
If they doubled they prices, they could increase them by 20%? Huh?
edit: talk to any large employer and ask them about employing the younger generation. All of them will say they have no work ethic and sit on their phones the whole time. You know what else, they think they should be paid $100k/hr and be millionaires...so try managing a bunch of people with that attitude and try not to go crazy. These companies are now reaching out to the older crowd for which they used to discriminate against because the young people suck.
“The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.” - Socrates
https://www.umass.edu/financialaid/undergraduate/undergradua...
In-state: 30,656 * 4 = 122k
Out Of State: 51,181 * 4 = 205k
If you looked at this 5-10 years ago your numbers were probably right. But interest rates are low and borrowers can borrow far too much money.
[1] https://financialaid.utah.edu/tuition-and-fees/cost-of-atten...
Also, as others have pointed out, teenagers tend to be less reliable employees. One part of that is that they don't need the job, at least in an "I might starve and be homeless if I get fired" sense. Another part is that if they're only working for the summer, they're unlikely to have time to become exemplary employees.
As a society, I agree it makes sense for teenagers to be able to pay for their own education with reasonable work. As a business, I don't think I would see that as my problem to solve directly, and probably not one I could even afford to fix even if I wanted to.
The average in-state tuition in the US (so sticking to the cheaper side) is $10,440/year. There's roughly 10 weeks of summer break, so 400 hours of work assuming a 40 hour work week. You need to make $26/hr after taxes and save every penny of your paycheck to afford that tuition bill. Average out of state tuition is $26,820/year; you'd need to make $67/hr after taxes to pay for that over summer break.
Again, those are after-tax numbers, so you'd have to make north of $30/hour pre-tax to be able to pay for in-state tuition. I just don't see that happening.
Restaurants in general are relatively premissionless in that anyone can start one, which is why so many fail. They can run the gamut from low margin to high margin, poorly managed to managed very well, so its no surprise that some will do better than others. In fact, I would think that the large corporate franchises will have the resources to adapt compared to the small business, family run restaurants because they have the logistical acumen to subsidize the costs.
I'm sure you're right. Some business owners are stubborn and don't want to offer higher pay. That said, to quote TFA:
> But in one recent survey, more than half of hospitality workers who've quit said no amount of pay would get them to return.
Paying more will get some people. But it clearly won't be enough for all, and maybe not even most.
Keep in mind this person has mostly likely done in depth analysis on how to make their most popular item at the same quality but for 2% less of some expensive ingredient.
I know one phenomenal restaurant owner who spent an entire year to get the cost of their paper products from 2% of COGS to 1%. Bonuses to managers, trash audits, the whole thing.
You really think people like that couldn’t figure out raise salaries and prices?
Do you know whats going to happen here? Panera, Qdoba, and 5 Guys. Just a monoculture of terrible bland food. Only the big players with economies of scale can charge less and pay the same as smaller restaurants.
(1) not everyone leases, some family businesses own the land and has significantly better margins at the trade-off of opportunity cost on the real estate,
(2) some businesses are explicitly there to fulfil visa or immigration obligations, so profitability isn't a priority,
(3) in less dense areas, the general laws of competition don't apply as much pressure as SF or NYC.
Don't forget lifestyle businesses. I actually know multiple high-income people (lawyers, doctors) who just let their partners run businesses for the sake of doing something during the day; they lose money every year which offsets the joint income, and is better than having their partner sit around at home and spending money on something else.
I would rather have nothing but chain restaurants owned by megacorps than have people working for less than a living wage.
A good way to think about this is to frame the question on yourself: should I be forced to work for less than a living wage? Should the state subsidise my employer in order for her to underpay me?
Then why do you want to take that away from them?
Those megacorps do everything they can to pay as little taxes as possible and get as much money out of the country as they can in the form of off-shore corporations that hold the trademarks for said corp, the US subsidiary of which pays it massive 'licensing' fees.
They're also the worst at keeping money within a local economy. They use other large corporations as much as possible for 'efficiency', but it has the side effect of meaning that said business doesn't spend money for services anywhere in the local economy. Joe Drain Buster doesn't get business from Five Guys having a grease clog; some nation-wide plumbing services company does. Maybe they contract out Joe Drain Buster, but not before taking their cut.
It gets worse. The larger the employer the easier it is for that employer to grift the local, county, state, and federal government for freebies, tax breaks, eminent domain gimmes, friendly legislation and regulations, etc.
Witness: Amazon and Walmart. Companies that generated a handful of people with unimaginable wealth who fight tooth and nail to treat their employees like shit.
Jeff Bezos has a net worth of $200BN as of a month ago. The average network for a resident of Mississippi is slightly over $17,000. That means it would take roughly 11.5M Mississippi residents to equal his net worth.
Mississippi has 3M residents.
They will raise prices because there are no competitors and lower wages because there are no alternatives. They will collude. They will extract the maximum economic value out of every community that they are in. Enjoy your nothing
Compare with the food in the US say, 40 years ago. Whatever you feel about Panera & Qdoba, they are not bland by comparison with food the way it was within my lifetime.
I don't like 5 Guys much, because I'm not much of a burger eater, but they too are generally of significantly higher quantity than most burger outlets from 40 years ago.
Not everyone is, and yes - many of them will fold because their viability was predicated on an unfeasible wage.
Sometimes an ecosystem is well past its expiry date and it reduces to a less vibrant interplay of species.
It’s tragic, but if it took one single thing to destroy it, then it is safe to presume that there were huge issues eroding its underlying harmony.
"Do you know whats going to happen here? Panera, Qdoba, and 5 Guys. Just a monoculture of terrible bland food. Only the big players with economies of scale can charge less and pay the same as smaller restaurants."
is just not true.
That would mean the people running those businesses were in need of psychological help, it is pretty much crazy to close your business because you refuse to raise wages.
I propose a counter explanation - your business has a very tight margin - if you raise wages you cannot afford to continue in business unless you raise prices. If there is a competing business nearby and you raise prices you lose customers to competitor and you will have to go out of business - unless of course competitor also raises prices.
You and competitor(s) sit around waiting to see who will raise prices first, probably one of you closes up because they don't have enough workers.
The one who remains open gets customers, because of extra income from customers they might be able to raise wages. At any rate they can probably raise wages because competitor that closed can't just reopen without any down time.
There is always convenience customers, loyal customers and opportunity customers who do not care about the 2-3% difference in price.
I'm not saying you are wrong, it could definitely be this case, just that there might be more factors to consider.
sorry, I thought the store was open until it closed down and posted its reasons?
The problem with following the don't raise wages strategy and wait for your competitor to do it is if they outlast you - you reach the have to close position first.
>By not raising wages, keeping your employees and staying open you will definitely go under.
unless something changes that will make it profitable to raise wages.
>There is always convenience customers, loyal customers and opportunity customers who do not care about the 2-3% difference in price.
In a small margins business this might not be enough to keep you afloat.
There are some small business owners very clearly in need of psychological help, so this tracks.
A good friend of mine is a doctor and he has a hair-raising story for me nearly every day, often indistinguishable from fast food customers’ behavior. I’m trying to get him to retire before he gets shot by somebody who was told they’d have to wait 3 days for an appointment.
What’s going on? I have my own theories but I want HN’s take.
I also think you have another camp, which I'll admit to being a member of. I did everything I was supposed to do. I stayed at home, used masks everywhere, took no trips, and had very few social engagements for more than a year - and it sucked. Now that things are open all I want to do is go out. Even though I know that I should lower my expectations, I can't help emotionally but feel entitled to having a good time now.
The thought rolling around my head is: I did everything that was asked of me for a year and a half, I deserve to have fun now.
As I write that I know intellectually how self-centered, selfish, and delusion it is but I feel it intensely.
I can't remember the other term, but there is a related concept where we do things like separate our recycling, then fly private. Someone with a job helping other people becomes an abusive disaster at home. Or the classic relationship anti-pattern of partner who "does things for you, and now you owe them," (covert contract?) It's related to indulgences and self-licensing, and there is a calculation where we decide our past or even current good behaviour justifies poor behaviour now because we have an imaginary idea that we are somehow bargaining with the universe and it owes us something. (It doesn't care.) It's not the universe, it's your mother, and people are rude because they are caught in a psychological feedback loop of expectation, shame, and rage.
For years I thought it was economically broken that even restaurant and café jobs required a college degree, but now I don't understand how anyone without a psychology degree could be equipped to work with the public. We are hell.
Almost as if there was some kind of flaw in the initial premise...
And my friend replied “I don’t think theaters are a problem after the orgies”
From my experience over the last several months hosting parties in reopened areas, people are open to anything. Even people that would be considered squares are taking the opportunity to live it up alongside the wild vagabonds
I’ve never seen anything like it
[0] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/red-deer-clinic-doct...
It's not just customer entitlement. It's been a steadily rising thing throughout society for my whole life.
People are less and less willing to accept responsibility for their choices, and more and more it's always someone else's fault.
For example, a person who chose to go $300,000 into debt to go to Columbia film school, where the starting salary upon graduating is $30,000, claims to be a victim of the school.
> Many of the students in my class who didn’t turn their degrees into industry success were insanely talented, but Columbia traded on its reputation to sell them big dreams that it could never deliver.
> During my 2nd year I suspected that the school wasn’t providing a launching pad to a career — most of the instructors were struggling to establish a career themselves & many weren’t even much more experienced than their students. A 4th yr student taught our cinematography class.
> The brass ring the program dangled was that your film could be chosen for the annual festival where, in theory, big-time agents would see it and maybe sign you. But it was cutthroat to even be selected for the festival. And tuition didn’t cover the cost to make those films.
…
> I slowly begin to realize this IS the deal. He made it pretty clear if I wanted my degree, I needed to help him sell his tv pilot. Yep, the Chair of Columbia’s prestigious graduate film program tried to shake me down in order to jump-start his own stalled out career.
The full thread is here: https://twitter.com/jstoteraux/status/1413326562821246978?s=....
Students definitely deserve some blame for signing onto these expensive programs without doing any meaningful research. But university admins can be corrupt, too, and it’s likely that they used their reputation as “Columbia” to sell students something they knew was fake.
Anyway, in response to the original point — I don’t think that’s a good example of entitlement since “scam” is a more appropriate word. I think they had stuff like “people being mean to waiters and flight attendants” in mind, which is a different sort of entitlement.
There is a legal concept called "due diligence" where a party to a contract is expected to take reasonable steps to know what they're doing.
Googling "starting salaries for [my major]" is a very, very low bar for due diligence.
The posts in this thread absolving the student from making any effort whatsoever at due diligence is illustrative of the point I was making.
Then the onus would be on the banks to only lend to people who they thought could repay.
Of course, you _can_ find information and protect yourself from even these scams _most_ of the time, but I don't think the "just do your due diligence" argument holds enough of the time to dismiss the general argument being made, even if it applies to specific cases.
Besides, it seems weird that the senior class would never notice that the class that graduated just ahead of them is working at the car wash?
If you imagine the uncertainty and justifiable inertia involved in a realistic scenario, I don’t see how you can dismiss arguments that it’s not necessarily just the fault of kids for not doing due diligence.
Choices are:
1. continue, rack up $300,000 debt with no way to pay it off
2. change majors to something that pays
Which do you think is the sensible decision?
> just the fault of kids
You're infantilizing them. They are adults. They can vote. They can drive cars. They can sign contracts. They can join the military and command others. They go to the big boy prison if they commit crimes. They can consult with their parents or anyone they respect. They can marry. They can have gender reassignment surgery.
They can use google. Just like you and I can.
They're not victims.
Do you really believe they spent 6 years studying a major and had no clue what the career prospects were? I don't.
At what point do you consider the person a functional adult and assign some responsibility?
> It’s why we send 18 year olds to war.
18 year olds are most likely to survive the rigors of combat. Survival rates drop steadily from 18 on.
> No one else would take those odds.
Plenty do. The US, for example, has had an all-volunteer army since the 1970's. The Navy and Air Force have always been all-volunteer. My dad volunteered at 23. A lot of volunteers were rejected for being too old.
Starting salary for film degree
I would think an educated student would know how to use google? But I bet they actually did know this, and went ahead anyway, and now just want to blame others.There isn't a lot of room at the top in film (at least until the creator economy table flips Hollywood). Likewise, there aren't many paid positions for historians, philosophy professors, etc.
Kids need to understand that their top priority should be to understand the shape of the economy and how to make themselves a valuable, indispensable part of it. Doing this early affords much greater freedom and leisure later in life.
Basically, kids need to understand supply and demand for careers. If they don't, it greatly impacts their future stability and happiness.
This was long before Google.
The starting salaries for each major were common knowledge, too.
I don't buy that film students did not know this until after graduation.
We created a society where we tell people they should chase their dreams and anything is possible in America. Then, when they chase their dreams and fail we tell them how stupid they are that they did that and they should have done something more practical. I don’t think teenagers should be blamed for doing exactly what they were told to do and they’re right to be angry at the system.
> teenagers
Masters degree students are not teenagers.
America is still designed for when a college degree was payable with a minimum wage job. We either need to fix our schools or acknowledge the American dream is dead and we tricked a generation into giving us money for something they could never have.
Sorry, I have to laugh at the idea that taking the GRE, writing an essay, and getting recommendations is so onerous one feels compelled to take on $300,000 in debt due to the sunk cost fallacy.
It's still their choice, and therefore their responsibility. It's not society's responsibility to make up for their sunk cost fallacy.
Besides, one can always change majors or transfer to another school with better prospects. Lots of students do that.
P.S. Studying for the GREs is what one did the previous 4 years getting a Bachelor's. Nobody I knew studied for the GRE. You should know that stuff by then. The GREs I took didn't go past sophomore material.
It's also weird to present such a wild off the wall example at the end. I don't think such people are common.
Talk with some folks from the new generation and build a connection beyond what someone else wants you to feel / think about them, you might be surprised what you have in common.
Just think about it. A degree doesn't have to cost $300000 but the bank financed it anyway, with the clear intention of working that person down to their bones. Why would a bank let someone take a debt that takes 10 years of work to repay? Because they want to force that person to work for 10 years. If the law were sane the debtor would default as soon as possible.
This is what I am talking about with the entitlement society - zero responsibility assigned to the person for their poor decisions.
To that end, I saw an interesting statistic thrown around: "The Federal Aviation Administration said it had fielded 1,300 complaints of unruly passengers since February, the same number of enforcement actions it took against passengers in the past decade." (Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/travel/faa-unruly-airline...)
That lends statistical credence to what you're saying: customers/people have gotten more entitled and, I'll interject my own phrasing, crazy. A 10x increase in "unruly passengers" is ... just hard to wrap my head around.
Of course, that 10x spike could be primarily attributed to masks and not necessarily an increase in broader entitlement or "freakouts". That's really what we're concerned with, because the mask rules will go away eventually. So what we're all really worried about is, are people getting "crazier" in general? Or is just the mask rules rubbing a lot of the population the wrong way?
That's harder to say. But I thought it important to at least address the bias question. I know myself I figured things couldn't be getting as bad as the internet makes them seem. I thought it may have been the "video camera in everyone's pocket" bias or something. But the stats point towards this possibly being a real shift.
As for why people might be getting out of hand? Well I don't have specific sources for this, but I've seen a few articles and quotes that suggest that isolation can cause permanent psychological damage. I know many people expected lock downs to have negative effects on our psychologies, but I think few are aware of just how damaging it's been. And it likely had a disproportionate effect on people with existing mental illness or mental "fault lines" as I like to call them. Combined with many society's lack of support structures for mental health and, well, it's perhaps no wonder that we're seeing a lot of public "freakouts". And as you've said, customer service workers bare the brunt of that.
I'm not certain why, but when I was younger, I feel like the tenor of stuff on our screens, message boards, TV, etc. was more positive than it is now. People celebrated stuff they liked more. That definitely still exists today, but more and more people are excited to celebrate a shared hate in something: sports stars (I can't watch shows like First Take on ESPN), reality tv (which seems to mostly revolve around petty conflict), politicians, I even used to use Facebook to find people to go to shows with, but I've since deactivated my account because it's not very social anymore, etc. When the people we look up are famous for being argumentative or being jerks, it makes us think that is what leads to success, or something along those lines.
After realizing this, I've definitely tried to base my relationships on stuff that I like (OK, I allow myself some bashing of the Dallas Cowboys :D ).
A good friend of mine is a doctor ... I’m trying to get him to retire before he gets shot by somebody who was told they’d have to wait 3 days for an appointment.
I'll be honest, the receptionists at my PCP have very poor, whatever the equivalent of bedside manner is for them. When I try to make an appointment, or get a referral, I get thrown around a lot of technical terms that I don't quite understand and they don't seem to have the patience to explain to me what such and such a number is, and who I have to give it to and when. Healthcare in the US is very confusing, and when you're sick or your kid is sick, it's not always easy to deal with all that red tape. I mean, I wish I only had to wait 3 days for an appointment, but it's like, I need to make an appointment weeks in advance, give someone a number, but not too far ahead of my appointment's date, then no one can tell what any of this is going to cost, etc. It is very stressful.
But, she has an out fast food workers don’t. She tells the worst offenders, “If you’re not happy with the care you’re receiving, we’d be happy to give you Fido’s records so you can take him somewhere else.”
They shut up when you remind them you don’t have to fix their sick dog.
Also, service generally blows. Even at your doctor friend’s place. I bet he has an 8 page HIPAA form that’s only fillable on paper and has duplicate entry requirements. How does this reduce frustration?
Companies, regardless of size, have started assuming consumers will keep paying for shitty service. Want my cash? Provide something I want. Going to be a rude prick? Quit and go on the dole, then. Save us all the trouble. I’ll happily take my business elsewhere. It’s not like there aren’t other options available for services.
What are we going to do about it? End the program? How about in september?
When people feel up against the wall, all social protocol and laws go out the window.
In the US, a faction of politicians are pushing apocalyptic thinking so hard, that everyone is getting the fear: not just the doomsayers and their followers.
But it actually is getting worse. We're in a new pandemic due to to ignorance, half of the US is on fire, cost of living there is through the roof, there are armed militia rising with a political bent, and their supporting politicians are encouraging violence.... Basically, the Karens of the US are being told it is their patriotic duty to be entitled. This all comes out as panic and "me first" behavior in everyone, not just Karens, but the people that have to deal with them, it accumulates.
The truth of the matter is that America has become a much angrier society since the pandemic started.
It hides - and so persists - deep beneath people's therefore ever-increasing unwillingness to face the reality of the consequences of what they've consented to.
Such self-absorbed puffery is the hallmark of any similar regime, and those "toeing the line", which at the moment - is a large number - are of course puffed-up along with the "upper brass" they've aligned themselves with and dutifully follow, and so reap the benefits reserved for and bestowed upon only those who conform, do what they're told, and further dispense those orders to others they themselves see as subordinate.
It's pathetic to watch, will come crashing down eventually, and as the dust settles, those who were ostracised and persecuted for questioning it, will lead us back. As always.
I'm trying to be charitable in my interpretation, but even leaving aside the style, it's extremely vague. What I've taken from your comment is:
- this bad thing is like other well-known bad socio-political things (which ones?)
- people are just going along with it without openly acknowledging it
- there are a lot of those people, and there's a hierarchy of them
- it's sad and bad, but will end eventually, and as usual, some outsiders who questioned it will come back in and form the new hierarchy
Now to be less than charitable for a moment, I think "It was a dark and stormy night" now has competition with:
> It hides - and so persists - deep beneath people's therefore ever-increasing unwillingness to face the reality of the consequences of what they've consented to.
Specifically, stating it directly leads to wild denials, ostracisation, persecution and generally overwrought and unjustifiable discombobulation from many - as they puff about unwilling to accept it.
From a less-reticent perspective:
"On 12 July the British Government announced that it will be strongly encouraging vaccine passports for venues and events to exclude the unvaccinated from public life. Although they say this is a voluntary act of discrimination, they have explicitly stated that they retain the option to make this mandatory in the future, as they also retain the option to resume police state measures as and when they please. The French government co-incidentally announced the same measure on the same day, only going much further, barring the unvaccinated from cafes, metro etc, and mandating vaccination of health workers – which is to say, putting the unvaccinated out of work. They follow the Irish and Greek governments which have brought in similar measures, along with other countries and states worldwide.
The long-term effects of these measures will be disastrous. It will normalise the discrimination, exclusion and persecution of a section of the population.
[...]
Never underestimate how powerful the motive to retain one’s self image is. The longer this goes on and the more brutal the measures enforced the more powerful this motivation becomes. The difficulty of admitting you have been fooled is directly proportional to how much and for how long you have been fooled. Perhaps my labelling of the new regime as fascist will make it even more difficult for people to break from it, as the immediate instinct is self defence – ‘I’m not a fascist. This guy’s a lunatic, he’s calling me a fascist!’"
https://leftlockdownsceptics.com/2021/07/collaboration-or-re...
There are a lot of semantic gymnastics going on in that blog post, specifically around identity groups:
- how lockdown/virus/vaccine skeptics _are_ an identity group,
- how lockdown rules and vaccine requirements are repression against those identity groups,
- how fascism is repression of identity groups,
- therefore a lot of people and governments are fascist now.
I think we'd both agree that it's wildly unjust that actual human beings have far fewer freedoms (a major one being freedom of movement) compared to corporations or their capital, so I can sympathize with the notion that more restrictions on biological beings is unfortunate, to say the least. But like in chess, we must play the board as it is, not as we wish it to be, and we're responsible for the predictable (especially policy) consequences of our actions.
The author is also a lockdown skeptic:
> Leading up to a (ritualised) date that announces a review of restrictions, the government generates terror on a mass scale – through its new gargantuan propaganda machine.
> The evidence mainly consisted of Sweden, Florida and other places that actually exist in the real world, and also the fact that the lockdowns haven’t worked
AND a virus skeptic:
> Imaginary variants, case numbers, double mutants (the possibilities are endless)"
And hence presumably a vaccine skeptic. These are further critical failures of analysis to add to that of "what constitutes an identity group and fascism".
Honestly, the _blog post_ itself almost reads like a psyop, but probably it's just the kind of nonsense that people like George Galloway and Aimee Terese are known for. Maybe if these failures weren't so central and didn't compound on each other, there'd be something else useful to say having read it.
For instance, be willing to fire your fucking customers. If someone is being a jackass in your establishment, make them leave. If they persist, involve LEO and trespass them.
There is no reason this cannot extend to the software realm. Make sure your customer contracts have some sort of language regarding circumstances for termination. Apple, Google, et. al., have certainly applied this thinking to their customers via EULAs and the like.
There is no customer so valuable that you should endure abuse for their patronage.
Service workers in general, I'd love it if more managers and companies would support front line workers in refusing service. The customer is not always right. People should not have to put up with literal abuse.
The Alamo Drafthouse theater is famously known for kicking someone out who was using their cell phone and other customers appreciate it.
I totally agree abusive customers are a huge problem though.
Also tends to deflate the rude customer.
"Customer is king" mentality should die. Far too often it leads to disgruntled frontline workers and customers walking around as if they are doing a business favour just by being their customer. Even something seemingly as simple as "smiling" is tiring if done all day.
In a business transaction all parties are equal. No one is doing anyone else a favour.
I quite liked it when I saw signboards in Singapore that said abusing a store keeper is a punishable offence.
Totally agree. My first computer store boss had a general rule that he repeated often to us: "The customer is always right until they're wrong; That's when you hand them over to me." When the day finally came that had to be tested, we watched him actually "86" (perma-ban) a customer from the store. That customer then tried to spread false rumors about the store that literally no other customer was willing to believe, because they all already knew our boss was a fair guy and wouldn't have banned someone without a mighty good reason. Still to this day wish that type of boss was more common rather than a total rarity.
The store worker "If we made the mistake, we'd fix them, but your wife watched us make these and didn't say anything" words were exchanged and the customer left, leaving sandwiches behind without a refund.
Not knowing they're were dealing with one of the brothers that owned that sandwich shops led that customer to think they could bully the employee.
Employee owned shops are the way to go. They really care but don't have to put up with crap.
On the flip side, I've done enough work and seen enough to know what customer facing people put up with.
I'd really like a hybrid model that does treat the customer as valuable, then tells them to get bent as soon as they start acting unreasonable.
Starbucks is a recent example of a company that had to do major damage control after asking some non-customers to leave their store.
https://www.eater.com/a/case-against-tipping
There's no good argument in favor of tipping. It's a bad practice that we should stop immediately.
Well, why is that the case? Don't you provide them with enough to live on? If they're getting $500 a week from unemployment, that would mean you're paying people less than $24k to work for you, without healthcare or retirement benefits, might I add.
He later stated if minimum wage was $15 an hour, he'd have to raise his prices and lose some staff who aren't efficiently employed time-wise. He stated this like it was a huge negative, but to me, he should pay great employees a great wage to work hard, not have extra employees all of whom are paid poorly to stand around a bit on the downtimes. And anyway, as a customer, I'd happily pay $10 instead of $5 for breakfast, if I had the option to support the employees properly.
$5 vs $10 for us in technology? Many of us make $30 hour, or FAR more, so these $5 differences are much smaller to us than to restaurant workers.
Paying everybody a living wage should be the minimum bar for any economy. If ours can't do it, we need a different one.
The employers aren't obligated to employ anyone. What do you think happens to the "slave-wage class" when the job disappears entirely?
Are you claiming that wages in the restaurant industry are kept artificially low because of companies artificially capping salaries, and that politicians are enforcing it? If so, is there a source for this? AFAIK the pay is bad purely because of market reasons (ie. there are more people willing to do it than there are positions).
Federal minimum wage is $7.25 for tipped employees its $2.13
Lobbying groups contribute to keeping wages low: https://www.politicalresearch.org/2015/04/14/chain-restauran...
Herman Cain former presidential candidate and CEO of godfather's pizza specifically built his lobbying career on this.
Not claiming it, its a fact.
The "facts" in this comment are similar, but not the same as the claims made in your original comment. Specifically, it only presents evidence of businesses removing government restrictions on the minimum price of labor. It does not present evidence of businesses keeping wages "artificially low" (ie. below the natural market clearing price). If anything, removing the restrictions stops restaurant wages from being artificially high.
The closer analogy here would be if for whatever reason there was a law saying that "engineers" had to be paid $200k minimum, and tech companies lobbied for software engineers to be exempt. That's already very different than software companies suppressing wages (eg. by colluding with each other not to compete on wages). Another wrinkle to this is that tipped employees receive tips. If software engineers were receiving royalties in addition to their normal salaries, I would think it's fair for them to be paid lower minimum wage than other engineers that don't receive royalties.
And we're not obligated to provide them with people desperate enough to work their shit jobs either.
One could argue that they could market to a higher-earning clientele, but that might not exist where you are, and they'd still have to pay to (maybe) earn that market.
it's a huge catch 22.
i feel like i should add that I usually tip 50-100% (since COVID started) regardless of service and want to see restaurant workers paid much better across the board. tips are not commissions.
Since they were fired, they got unemployment. Now, restaurants are open again, but folks don't want to go back for the meager pay (and likely the extra freedom in their time is welcome as well).
but anyway, for those who do collect unemployment, job search requirements are in effect now. unemployment offices are requiring workers to apply to jobs and document their search. they cross-reference with employers and will actually revoke unemployment if job offers are declined. if restaurants still can't hire staff under these forced conditions, it's because they are simply worse than other jobs available, and perhaps even worse than no income.
He is going to doom and gloom any situation that results in him potentially losing money. And him losing out on profit to pay his staff probably doesn't enter his mind. If he made $X of profit last year, he wants to make $X+ this year. So he figures if he has to pay people Y more, he will have to charge Y more so he can still profit what he wants to.
To your opinion on what he should do regarding "extra" employees, I'm going to refer you to the book, Slack. While those employees are technically standing around being extra, they're needed to accommodate the bursts of activity that happens in a restaurant. Restaurants aren't busy all day long, they're busy in spurts. When you need people, you need them now.
And I think that may a major issue. The tipped minimum wage makes things feel like they're running efficiently, when it's really just shifting the money around in a way that is not optimal for the customer and causes them to overpay.
The owner is under paying for the labor and the customer, in turn, is over paying for the labor.
This is due to information asymmetry.
The employer is only paying the legal minimum, in the case of tipped wages in the U.S., $2.13. The employee is expected to make up the rest of the federal/state minimum wage in tips. But that's what they're incentivized to do. If you've got a short sighted view of finances, you may think that if you manage to cut costs, that always translates to extra profit. And if you're paying a dime more than minimum wage, you can cut that cost. (Also, this is why a lot of restaurants fail, most people who run them shouldn't be running a business)
The customer is obligated by social pressure and what not to tip for the service provided. However, people in the service industry are cagey about how much they pull in, actual effort required, etc. in order to get people to tip more and more. Originally, tipping was around 10% and now we see people trying to promote the idea that a baseline tip is closer to 25%.
So the customer has no clue as to how to price the labor that's been provided to them and it is in the servers' best interest to exaggerate as much as possible to get the most tip possible. That's what they're incentivized to do.
And inbetween it all, you have the servers. Who don't want to let go of the tipping model because they can manage to get paid better than what the actual service would be worth in a fairer market.
Right wingers are upset because "it's socialism" and folks on the left who I've discussed the idea with have repeatedly expressed fear that it will undermine feminism.
yeah if you check the hourly earning chart, the hourly wage required for a dual earner household with 2 adults and 3 kids is only $32.29/hr.
"Living wage" may include having enough margin to save such that one may retire at something resembling a typical retirement age. If so, it's very easy to under-cut it and still be apparently doing fine, until age 70 when you have to keep working, through illness and pain, as a Wal-Mart greeter.
This also means responsible savers have to compete with borrowing-against-their-future types with no retirement savings, for things like housing or (relatedly) various scarce benefits for their kids. IMO it's a pretty strong argument against "freer" personal retirement account systems being the main mechanism of retirement savings, and for mandatory, strong public pension schemes.
Doesn't seem to be.
>[The living wage model] does not provide a financial means for planning for the future through savings and investment or for the purchase of capital assets (e.g., provisions for retirement or home purchases).
https://livingwage.mit.edu/resources/Living-Wage-Users-Guide...
Must be childcare costs & housing making it so high, then. I gather childcare costs vary quite a bit from city to city, and in my cheaper location those are easily the two biggest expenses, with childcare eclipsing housing by a fair margin, for 1-parent and 2-parents-both-working categories on the calculator, with 3 kids.
FWIW only the "management" category's average income is (barely) above the "living wage" for a single-adult household, for three kids, here. Since that's pre-tax income, yeah, I'd say that's about right. Kids are crazy-expensive.
No single job that earns enough, I think is what you found; this doesn't preclude that dual-income families can afford to have three kids, with average or above-average income jobs.
I can imagine it would be very difficult to make ends meet in this situation as a single parent with 3 or more kids. (I suppose you would either need an exceptionally high paying job, or another major source of income besides that job.)
They're using state level minimum wages, but that's just as inaccurate as using the federal minimum wage.
Customers have lost their minds. The notion that "the customer is always right" has combined with what can only be described as a mass-psychosis among a population of patrons. The level of behavior among these customers is borderline criminal in terms of attacking staff and restaurant property. Why deal with that for minimum wage?
Just a year ago, this was one of the most professionally stuffed family friendly restaurants in Prague. Now they have to train a new crew and build their reputation from scratch again.
Was working as a waitress here in the Czech Rep. / EU really that bad that the ones who managed to find a different job during the pandemic do not want to go back?
Here's my story from the industry I was a part of for a better part of a decade: One time while I was a line cook, I was cleaning a meat slicer and sliced 3/4ths of the way through the tip of my thumb (just the meaty part at the end, not bone or anything). I realized I had 2 options: Leave work, go to the ER, miss my shift/pay, and incur a bunch of medical debt I could barely afford OR; leave work, go to the CVS around the corner, buy a bottle of superglue, and patch myself back up. My boss even told me if I just needed to run to CVS, I wouldn't need to clock out, what a great guy! This was at an upscale Italian place on the Asbury Park boardwalk that was doing millions of dollars in sales every year.
When I left the industry to go into tech, I never looked back. I will always have a love/hate relationship with the industry. I love the creativity, the people, the experience of dining. I hate everything about the exploitative labor practices. I wish everyone leaving the industry good luck on their new, hopefully better paths. I wish every manager crying poor and bemoaning that nobody wants their poverty wages in a physically crushing industry a very fuck you.
In the US, employers are responsible for workplace safety and there are serious repercussions for violations like this. Some small businesses rely on employees being too fearful to report incidents, but that’s not unique to the US.
Worker’s compensation would have covered the injury mentioned above, and any employer interfering with that would face serious consequences up to and including loss of business license and closure of the restaurant.
> Low wages are the most common reason people cite for leaving food service work. But in one recent survey, more than half of hospitality workers who've quit said no amount of pay would get them to return.
Note that over half of survey respondents directly refute your claim of "Just pay more". Paying more will get some people in, but having your restaurant half or three-quarters staffed is still an unenviable position.
So this is only sampling existing workers who've quit, not potential workers who would enter the market for the right wages.
Everywhere I've been, it seems like there's literally 10+ restaurants per square mile. In cities it's 100+, not exaggerating. And it's not even unique restaurants either: in my local town there are multiple Mexican restaurants, Italian restaurants, Chinese restaurants, American restaurants, with a lot of overlap in the menus.
Why? My parents hate to cook and get takeout almost every night. And even they don't get every restaurant, in fact they like to get the same few. Meanwhile, I cook for myself and almost never get takeout because it's healthier, cheaper, easier, and even IMO it usually ends up tasting better anyways. It's mostly common knowledge that the restaurant business sucks to get into anyways. So why are there so many restaurants?
But you are correct that the restaurant business is terrible from an investment perspective. For some people, the restaurant business is their calling and what they know well, can't fault them for that even if the margins are poor.
It is like being a startup founder. Mostly a bad idea on a purely economic basis but many people feel compelled to do it.
The real question is whether things will be meaningfully different in 10-30 years. I suspect the answer will be yes, because automation will be more capable, combined with legislative pressure to eliminate low paying jobs.
The kinds of people still eating in person at restaurants were often not paragons of conscientiousness in the first place. And I could see a lot of people cutting back on tipping when just patroning a place could feel like an act of charity in itself.
[1] https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/article/Data-show-the-pand...
Yeah, previously I wouldn't tip if I had to order my food from a counter, but I changed that during the pandemic (especially if it was a smaller mom an pop restaurant).
In contrast, your argument for why eat-in restaurants are about to disappear in large numbers is entirely based on a decrease in supply of cheap labor. You don't argue at all for why there would be a decline in demand. Perhaps customers changed their habits after the COVID lockdowns, but at least on the short term, I feel like I'm noticing the opposite effect: people really want to do stuff outside of their house.
I understand that some of the more struggling restaurants would be driven over the edge by higher wages, but it seems spurious to assume that this will cause a large shift in the market all by itself.
And it's even more spurious to just assume that this will drive large swathes of former wait staff into unemployment. Similar arguments are made carelessly in the minimum wage debate, where people mistakenly believe that there is consensus among economists that it drives up unemployment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage#Surveys_of_econom...).
Theatres might have made it, if hollywood wasn't also at an all-time low in customer esteem and (IMO) quality of output.
If I order from Chipotle via the app, I don't have to interact with a human at all unless there's an issue with the food. There's a bag on the rack for me to grab.
Some say people pay for the experience, for being served when going to a restaurant.
It would be interesting to see if that's true, or if highly automated restaurants with the right experience and price will become a hit.
1. Restaurant workers quit
2. Restaurants raise wages
3. Restaurants get workers back
Minimum wage seems to be out of this equation. Natural market dynamics will self-correct and the wages will naturally rise as literally any other price rises when inflation occurs. To be honest, I'm not sure what minimum wage is other than an artificial constraint. Workers obviously are willing to quit jobs with low pay, so why does the lower bound of pay need to be enforced? It seems contrived. If anyone can explain how minimum wage affects the above scenario, I would be grateful.I fail to see how this isn't just capitalism and competition working as expected. The majority of restaurants react to this by raising all prices -- including wages. The food costs twice as much now, and they are paying their staff twice as much. If people don't want to pay the price, maybe it's best that a better restaurant takes its place or the restaurant improves their offering?
but luckily part of it ends in september
The only time it's worth it is if you don't care about walking out even in the middle of a shift.
Attract better behaved customers, match fixed vs variable expenses better, attract more regular customers.
Though you run into restaurants being a terrible industry with too much competition.
I don't love the membership fee - it seems a wrong to me to exclude the people who see $55/year as a barrier, but I LOVE the no-BS aura of Costco's employees. At Costco, more than any other store I've been to, I get the impression that you must be respectful to the staff if you'd like to continue shopping there. Maybe the membership model helps enable this, as the store could revoke your membership if you cause problems.
Or do salads and compete in a similar manner - like a gym membership, prepay to incentivize healthy behavior.
The core problem is retail is a bad industry with high competition and there is a huge desire for variety.
I spot a longer term "convenience" trend in consumers that has been further propelled by the pandemic, creating permanent shifts in demand.
There's many examples of it regardless of the pandemic...
Visiting a theater to see a movie is on the decline, as people use Netflix on increasingly large and capable screens.
ecommerce has marginalized physical stores.
And so on. We were already on this trend, and the end game for pretty much anything is smartphone-level convenience. If I want something, it should in most cases not require more effort than the push of a button. Even to change the light in the house, of which the switch is 3 feet away from me.
The pandemic has "delivered" new services, or existing ones that we now got used to.
There's going to be far less business travel, as now every rank in every company has been forced to make remote work operate somewhat efficiently. This will permanently change office real estate and business locations.
Not to mention the car industry, as a lot of usage is based on commutes.
Gyms may also see structurally less demand, as people found alternatives, and got used to them.
In my country (Netherlands), ecommerce was already normalized yet now even the less tech savvy got accustomed to it, further accelerating the decline of physical stores.
Luckily, people still did grocery shopping at the store itself. Not anymore. Now many people have tried home delivery of groceries and are unlikely to give back the time won.
Finally, restaurants. Before the pandemic, all you could get delivered here was junk food. Now you can get a high quality meal. Further, home cooking is back, the convenience type where they ship fresh high quality stuff with clear instructions.
Surely, visiting a restaurant is still a rich and social experience, but I would not be surprised if demand is significantly reduced if the home option is pretty good.
As for the convenience trend, a cynical view is that people are lazy. A more optimistic view is that people optimize their time, which is scarce. Speed and convenience wins, and will take over everything.
While the result would feel a bit dystopian I suspect I'd still go along as a consumer.
Pretty simple, let's go, Team USA.
Hello? Team?? Oh, I'm sure we're all onboard with the plan and in this together.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ice-cream-shop-doubles-minim...
No applicants, advertised $15 an hour, got 1,000 in a week and the bottom line isn't affected, less turnover and happier employees.
As long as part of the wage is in tips the owner effectively is capable of charging customers different prices. Rich people pay more but poor poeple also visit. If you raise the price to pay a good wage without tips and abolish tipping you lose the poor customers.
Modest people also eat out in Europe or in Japan, where morally mandatory tipping does not exist, so there is that.
More people dining means more profit probably.
> (citation needed)
Yes, that may indeed be a problem.
I gave a precise argument to why I think tips do not increase demand for the service - most people in the US, regardless of wealth, pay at least the minimum tip.
GP's argument that there is a substantial price segmentation would only hold if poorer people did not pay the tip.
Edit: I missed the point, my fault.
That's OPs point? Tipping allows for a degree of price discrimination since people that can't afford the full cost (menu price + tip) are allowed to pay less.
I'd quibble about the degree of that effect, but it makes sense directionally.
It's summer, france is a destination for tourism and there is a big shortage of workers. Post covid, people want to go out and have a good time.
I've talked several times with skilled and competent cooks in the industry I met, and apparently it's hell on earth. That industry has the most drug users: you work at times when others are having a good time. Competition is very high in france, restauration is a big big industry here, the culture of food is amazing and I'm pretty sure we're one of the best of the world.
In my view, preparing food for others is a form of slavery. It's one the most obvious form of social inequality. Of course people love to eat good food, sitting nicely in a cozy place in a nice terrace. Of course people are going to spend their money for this.
Except it's hard work, and there will always be a culture of "I pay, I decide, you work".
Honestly the more I eat at restaurants, the more I realize I'd be ready to eat slightly expensive frozen MRE and some picnic just to not make those poor people work like that. Plus there are many people out there who cook nice meals for their friends.
I love that part of the french culture, but honestly, clients will quickly realize eating at a restaurant is expensive for good reasons.
Treating people well starts with paying them well, but has to continue with respecting them.
Isn’t that every job, though? In return for money, you do something you wouldn’t do if you weren’t paid?
It seems like restaurant owners in the US turn over often, varying from every few months to 3 years on the outside. Seems like a really stressful industry that can have good margins, but maintaining profitability is hard and consumers are quite fickle.
The current restaurant industry is a failing business model that usually harms those involved. The employees, vendors and business owners often end up destitute and with damaged bodies, hence why this industry burnt through people even pre-pandemic.
People can say 'oh just make the wages better'. But that may literally be the difference between there being a restaurant and nothing at all.
Many gas stations run the with the same model. The twist is the gas companies own the land, and the pumps, and set the price. You just run the business.
Basically most of these places someone 'bought a job'.
Think I heard somewhere that places like McDonalds is one of the largest land owners in the world. Yet most of their stores are not 'corporate'.
This is an odd sentiment, the byproduct of living in economically segregated places. Where I live, an hour east of DC, there isn’t a restaurant in town where someone who worked there couldn’t afford to go there at least on special occasions. I was getting a hair cut the other day, and it turns out that my barber likes the cocktails at the nice restaurant (right on the water) where I like to take out of town visitors. The people who clean our house live a few blocks away. (Although the Fed money printing machine is causing our real estate prices to go up, and causing DC’s inequality wasteland halo to keep expanding outward.)
There is, of course, nothing intrinsically coercive about someone cooking food for the person who cuts their hair. An economy is people doing stuff for each other for money. It’s only in a handful of metropolitan areas where you have outrageous inequality and economic segregation that creates the situation you’re talking about.
It got really obvious when people objected to having to put on a mask for the safety of the waiter serving them, and I can't blame anyone for noping out of that noise.
I spent 3 years as a waitress, prep cook and dishwasher at a mid-range chain. Our regional manager would literally hand out speed pills to the staff if we were working a double or otherwise tired. Oh, having a rough shift? Here, have some trucker Yellowjackets I picked up just for this scenario at the sketchy truck stop just over the border.
Also, employees would steal literally everything that wasn't racheted down. Steaks, frozen fish, margarita glasses, people stocked their houses with the dishware and cutlery.
It is a tough industry to survive in. Forget thrive.
The opposite is what was depicted in the show Seinfeld as the "Soup Nazi": a person who renders the service only a particular way (and may even throw you out of their shop if you object). But even on Seinfeld the Soup Nazi only got away with how he acted because his soup was particularly good and it was worth conforming to his idiosyncratic etiquette on how to order, etc. So having such autonomy is uncommon and reserved only for the greatest -- even, say, in software: John Carmack can expect to have working conditions as he desires. You or I will have to settle for open plan offices and constant meetings.
That said, food service is indeed grueling and physically taxing work. My sister and her boyfriend both work in the industry. The boyfriend is a chef and smokes a lot of dope -- conforming to your observation about drug use. So I do what I can to make life easier at the restaurants I patronize, mainly being polite to the staff and, as America is a tipping culture, tipping them generously.
It really isn't. France has lots of delicious recipes but the food that gets actually produced in the average restaurant in France is terrible.
It’s trivial to cook something that’s better tasting and healthier than fast food, most cafes. With all the practice in the last year, it’s not hard to come close to my favorite upscale restaurants for 1/4 of the price.
I don’t need to find a recipe, I can “just cook” now.
Eating out seems like an antiquated division of labor given how streamlined procurement (grocery delivery from anywhere), and no commute have made my life.
The more of them that shut down after COVID and don't come back, the better.
Sushi, most ethnic food, high quality locally sourced ingredients, pizza oven, etc. Heck even a sandwich from jimmy John’s - I eat meat once a week or so so a making my own salami sandwich would mean wasting a ton of food.
But you can see the reflection of that in this mess - the lack of enforcement of cultural norms about being a nasty piece-of-work to waitstaff and other front-of-house jobs has raised the labour expectations to the point that it's no longer a worthwhile employment option for many people. There are similar jobs with similar pay but less emotional labor.
This is the price of ignoring the emotionally laborious. And yes, "laborious" has a two different meanings when applied to people.
Often times when I visit one of these stores, they have 1 or 2 employees working in the entire store, maybe 3 or 4 during a shift change or busy time. Never more than 2 people on a register.
I think these companies could alleviate the theft problems with more employees, but they don't want to pay the labor costs.
In my experience only half of the population tips based on percentage, and it's generally those who eat at high end places, or seem to be more affluent. The rest tip based on "service" and that could be 5% on a $150 bill, or 20% on a $15 tab. I've seen both, and I think your example only applies to a very small percentage of wait staff.
I came from a food service background though and realize people have bad days, but it does put me in a bit of a conundrum on how to handle truly terrible service. Fortunately for my wallet, I don't frequent those upscale establishments so it's not a problem I think about often.
/s
The person in the article though is in the back of the house. Those workers almost uniformly make minimum wage across the country.
[1] https://www.sfchronicle.com/food/article/Legendary-Zuni-Cafe...
The vast majority (let's call it 99%) of all dining establishments pay whatever their local tipped minimum wage is (for the purpose of this we'll use the Fed min, which is currently 2.13 with a "made whole" rate of 7.25). This means all the owner is on the hook for, is: 7.25 - 2.13 - Declared tip total.
What does this mean? It means sometimes waitstaff will actually have $0 paychecks, because the amount they earned actually outstrips the pay coming from their employer due to their tax burden on declared tips.
Well we can't have that! So what's an enterprising waiter to to? Often, declare as little as possible of their tips. Now you can't get away with ignoring credit card totals (there's a paper trail!) but you damn well better believe that every server (EVERY SERVER) everywhere in the country is doing their best to hide that cash from the tax man. Often times the managers help them with his (because they were usually servers too at some point).
TL;dr- Restaurants aren't paying servers who are making 20/hr. What's going on is that those places charge so much for their dining experience that it drives of tips (in the US, people typically tip as a percentage of their bill, e.g. 20 dollars on a 100 dollar meal is considered standard). It actually makes more sense for a restaurant to raise their prices if they want to their servers to make more money, and it STILL doesn't cost them more.
High end places don't need to pay you more themselves to attract the best talent. There are only so many places in a given area where you can pull in 200-500 dollar nights. If you suck, they will fire you comb through the stack of resumes they have at any given time to find someone who seems likely to not suck.
The 90th percentile wage for waiters (excluding fast-food!) is $20.46/hr. The 75th percentile is $14.73
https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes353031.htm
The vast majority of waiters would love to make a $20 wage.
Even if everyone at 4-dollar-sign restaurants was making 6 digits, that's still a small minority of restaurants.
I didn't realize that rude customers was that widespread.
I had people actually tell me that I was stupid, I had someone throw an ice cream at me because they were mad I was parking them to wait for their order, I got screamed at far more regularly than you would think. That's just the tip of the iceberg, and management was usually worse.
No exaggeration: I would be homeless before working at McDonalds again. Not because of pride, but because it put me into a really bad depression.
1) Lack of general(outside work) support for what essentially is an empathy job (care about the customer experience)
2) Lack of social enforcement of dont be a piece of shit. People used to call out people more for behavioral standards (swearing, presumption of positive intent, codes of dress, on and on the list goes...)
Next time you see someone being treated poorly speak up. Everyone is too busy recording for youtube rather than interacting in the environment. We've become passive observers rather than active partakers in life.
Less objectively, I feel like assholes are much more likely to express their negativity in a service scenario. You may run into these people all the time and not see their behavior until you're the one serving them.
The ways some people not-uncommonly behave can be absolutely gobsmacking. It's hard to relate to what is going on in these people's emotional thoughts. Spontaneous stress reactions like road rage are at least relatable, but the purposeful way some people treat others when being served by them can be, frankly, totally alien.
Plagued? Isn't that just how supply and demand work, ms "economist"?
The only reason workers are quitting at record rates is because a new business opened up in town with unlimited resources handing out free dollar bills.
I'm not sure how money would change that. Even if you doubled wages all of a sudden, if people are literally fearing for their lives, you can't actually get them to come in.
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In resort areas (beaches, etc. etc.), a lot of these workers were also seasonal. I visited the beach and instead of being greeted by poorly speaking German folk (No offense, but its often obvious when you're interacting with a seasonal worker...) in my favorite restaraunt... I was greeted by Americans (far far fewer of them, because they couldn't find enough workers).
German seasonal part-time workers won't come over because of COVID19. Asking them to risk an airplane flight for some money just isn't worth it.
You can actually gain a hell of a lot of information with a brief 30-second talk with a cashier, someone stocking the shelves at a store, waiter, or barber. Keep it brief: they're still on the clock and you don't want to waste their time.
Its also their job to respond to you (ex: talk about checkout, to point you in the direction of where items are in a store... or to serve you a meal or cut your hair). So its not very hard to translate a natural interaction into a brief 30-seconds or so question about their perspective in life right now.
Sometimes, you don't even need to talk with them. Like the German seasonal workers at my local beach area: I know it without even talking to anyone. The Germans are gone this year: I didn't see any of them. I normally see lots of them (often shy workers who respond "I don't speak English" when you try to talk with them), but I saw literally none of them this past week when I went to the beach.
I also studied a basic level of Spanish and German. I'm not conversational, but I can recognize when people speak those languages. So hearing random German discussions between seasonal workers in the background is common under normal times, and that's just missing this year.
https://www.advisory.com/en/daily-briefing/2021/02/10/covid-...
(IDK about you, but 3 seconds of googling is easier for me than conducting my own personal polling of people I see out and about)
Information gathered from the Internet doesn't always match my personal spot-checked polls. I was able to call the BTC peak when I noticed that randoms I'd poll were talking about BTC for example, while the internet was damn sure that BTC would keep going up.
When my Bank-teller is able to talk about her Bitcoin "investments", I know we've reached the peak. Besides, people are excited to talk about their viewpoints and its always fascinating to me. (I do visit the banks on occasion still: gotta collects $5 bills and coins and ATMs don't always dispense those)
Its not a lot of effort and yet gets me tons of information. I don't really see any downsides in just doing it on occasion. I'm not like a newspaper reporter or anything (so this isn't my job), but having a quickie pulse on what other people are actually thinking is really helpful in making my own decisions about the world.
This is just the simple "what's the talk around town" sorta thing. Its not hard to start conversations and enjoy another person's point of view.
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Besides, when we start talking about innately political subjects (ex: is the current shortage due to unemployment checks vs the current shortage due to a lack of immigrants??), it helps to do some on-the-grounds fact-checking. Asking random strangers a quickie question every now and then results in far higher quality. Sure, the strangers remain biased according to their own viewpoints, but... there's still huge amounts of information from their perspectives.
And its not always politics. Asking about "hey, what's that food you're eating? Is it good?" is a good way to find new restaurants. Or "When is your next shipment of X coming in?" is a great one to ask in stores, so you know when some hot commodity is shipping (ex: GPUs at Microcenter or PS5 at Target). Its not like the internet knows when the specific Target at my street-corner is getting the next shipment of PS5s.
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What do you think of "X new product" (useful in determining my next stock purchase: is there on-the-ground buzz about the Ford Maverick? Should I buy the stock F??). Etc. etc. There's just always good information to be gained from helpful strangers. And more often than not, I think people are happy to have a bit of smalltalk in the day (as long as you keep it short).
A lot of what I was talking about in the top comments were just the anecdotes that I could personally verify with these spot-checks.
Waiters / Barbers / etc. etc. _ARE_ afraid of dying. Not necessarily the ones serving you, but their former coworkers aren't coming back because of the fear. Maybe dead-cooks have something to do with it. But I can say for sure that front-line workers are willing to talk about their fears (or their viewpoint on the fears of their former coworkers).
Outside the West, 2020 represented the decisive death of neoliberalism. No one is looking to America for the future anymore.
Interestingly, even America had its only explicitly-anti-neoliberal (in rhetoric, at the very least) President in the last 3+ decades in office at the time. Think what you will of him—I certainly have some thoughts—he was notable for that highly unusual, for a national-level US politician with the backing of a major party, policy stance.
That aspect of that particular phenomenon hasn't received a ton of attention (to be fair, there was a lot of stuff to focus on) so I'm not sure whether it represents any kind of trend, but neoliberal policies are actually fairly unpopular among voters across the board, though very popular among leadership in the two major US political parties for quite some time.
It was driven largely by real estate appreciation. How do you figure that this is ephemeral?
Your second paragraph contradicts your first. America's policy in 2020 was decisively _not_ neoliberal, and was in fact one of the most generous in the world[1]. This is in part due to necessity borne of a smaller safety net than other OECD countries, but it's a huge mistake to interpret this as simply canceling out the scope of the fiscal action; at the very least, describing a government capable of specific spending bills at this scale and reach as committed to neoliberal orthodoxy is ridiculous.
Similarly, "neoliberalism" is an absurd description of an administration whose agenda is based on the increasing acceptance of steady-state gargantuan deficit spending (as we begin to cautiously accept that inflation is not appearing to nearly the degree we've feared for the last decade).
There's a large contingent out there engaging in a combination of wishful thinking and blind extrapolation of an outdated impression of USGov fiscal habits. It's a good fit for a post-truth world (I've lost count of the number of dumb friends who think that the extent of covid fiscal relief was a flat $600/1200 payment). But HN hasn't quite reached that level of disconnection with reality, so let's not steer it that way..
[1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/business-52450...
My sole property doubling in value, along with every other house in comparable neighborhoods, is 100% ephemeral, because there is no way to realize that value without liquidating my family's quality of life--a counterproductive maneuver.
**
Trump Admin was paradoxically nationalist at home and neoliberal abroad (probably because he's a professional clown with no understanding of governance); US foreign policy has not meaningfully changed since 1991/2001. It's all about securing the conditions for global neoliberalism, i.e. American military and financial imperialism, which ensures I can buy a jar of premium African tree nuts from Costco for a fraction of an hours labor, even though it required many hours of labor to produce.
Anyway, that pyramid scheme called neoliberalism is collapsing, and it's only going to get worse domestically in America as a sad but necessary result.
not really. you can reverse mortgage it when you retire.
That’s not true at all. By far most gains were captured by the wealthy:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/23/how-much-wealth-top-1percent...
The problem with that analysis is that it implies a 1%/1% growth (for rich/poor respectively) is preferable to a 2%/6% growth.
What they said was technically/precisely true, despite not being particularly meaningful.
https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/07/net-worth-gains-in-2...
> if you can replace it with “him” or “her,” use whom
Source: parent
I've been a UBI supporter my entire adult life, but that doesn't mean that what's effectively a lie of omission is good for the discourse. Then again, it's hard to expect otherwise from a rag like NPR.
The simplest model of utility (linear in money) basically says "people will take these jobs if they pay $X more than unemployment." With unemployment in the US paying $300/week more than it used to, jobs now need to pay about that much more than before to stay competitive -- about $7.50 an hour. So for a $15/hr job, the employer needs to pay $22.50 now.
A perhaps more realistic utility model has diminishing returns to money. The classic example is log($). Put simply, "people will work a job if it pays X times what unemployment does."
In that model, the $15/hr job at 40 hours/week pays $600 before tax. Say unemployment used to pay $300/week, so the job paid 2x unemployment, and now with the extra $300 of supplemental employment benefits it pays $600, so the job has to bump its pay up to $1200/wk or $30/hr to stay competitive.
That's a modeled kinda space of policy consequences -- wages go up 50% or 100% or there will be employment shortfalls even before thinking about childcare shortages, reduced immigration etc. That situation can be spun as "benefits too high" or "pay too low" to score political points or drive policy, but these effects are clearly explanatory either way.
It's laughable to make that comparison when the "survival stipend" is money for doing nothing. I'm not sure how any private enterprise can compete with that.
By paying more, of course.
There are also high numbers of people retiring and lots of alternative low-skill job options these days. Many people are changing careers upwards as well. Lots of well-paying employers are also short on labor. COVID was a catalyst for many to reevaluate their job situation.
The question is, should we force people to take the option of "low pay, no benefits, rude customers"? If those jobs are really the only alternative to the gov't paying workers, then do we as a society think the correct option is "low pay, no benefits, rude customers"?
To me, it seems like the options should be "restaurants provide a reasonable employment" or "we don't have restaurants". One way to do this would be to make laws that force restaurants to do certain things (min wage, benefits, etc). Another option (and a much more "free market" option) is to provide competitive benefits from the gov't and let restaurants compete with that.
Either way, if we as a society aren't willing to pay enough to eat at a restaurant such that the restaurants can provide reasonable employment terms then we should maybe rethink how restaurants fit into our society.
I personally know 3 people who left the restaurant industry (1 RNA certification, 1 barbering, and one realtor) last year. I know of one person who spent their time during shutdown working on IT certifications who is currently planning an exit. I don't blame these people for not working in food service. I did my time there, it's miserable on all fronts.
I think the bigger problem is shutting down the industry and starting it back up. People who had to go elsewhere to make ends meet aren't going to go back. It's going to take a long time for these restaurants to recover lost talent. They are going to have to offer a lot more than the old status quo if they want to woo workers back.
"Cornett, off work for a few weeks, realized he received enough money through unemployment benefits to start saving — for the first time. He wondered if the work he loves would ever entail a job that came with health insurance or paid leave."
>Cornett, off work for a few weeks, realized he received enough money through unemployment benefits to start saving — for the first time. He wondered if the work he loves would ever entail a job that came with health insurance or paid leave. "I was working what I decided was going to be my last kitchen job," Cornett said.
That might be the intent, but that's irrelevant to the actual distortionary effects that it causes on the job market that gp is talking about.
The comment was correctly flagged dead for being flamebait.
What facts do we need here? That the program exists? I doubt that's in dispute.
>It’s also highly irrational to suggest the government is paying people to sit at home, since they are not.
1. I think the "Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize." guideline[1] applies here. The weaker interpretation you seem to be using is "the government's unemployment policy was deliberately designed to get people to stay at home" (as opposed to providing safety net), but the stronger interpretation would be "the government is effectively paying people to stay at home by enacting a policy that gives people money, but will withdraw it should they find work".
2. An argument could be made that the government literally wants people to stay home, as a matter of policy. After all, there would be much less people complying with stay-at-home orders if they ran out of cash, couldn't buy food, and had to find a job.
>for being flamebait.
I fail to see how that's the case. If the commenter called the people on unemployment "lazy" or whatever, you may have a point, but they didn't.
Sure, if you take the article at face value. The key argument seems to be "more than half of hospitality workers who've quit said no amount of pay would get them to return". On the surface that might suggest that people are getting out for non-monetary reasons (ie. not related to pandemic relief), I'm skeptical whether that's actually the case. It's easy to tell yourself and the pollster that "no amount of pay" would make you go back when the government has been paying you unemployment for the last 16 months. When unemployment ends and the bills pile up, I suspect a good chunk of them would eventually go back.
Or did I miss the post where you were complaining about aid to other tax brackets and businesses?