Then, in March 2009, a bunch of billionaires got together and decided that the world probably would not end. They put their money back into markets. And they enjoyed an insane period of recovery over the next year, even though the average person didn’t see their own income start to rise for many years.
Here’s the thing about investing when you’re 30: if you think the world is going to end, just give up now and live in the moment. Why save if you believe the world won’t make it beyond 2040? But if you think there is a chance humanity will figure things out and avoid calamity, then index fund investing is the most efficient way for you to participate in the economic system as a part owner of it.
as far as safe investment, you kind of just answered it when talking about the billionaires. property/land with a possible dooms day bunker.
Either way, fear mongering about what could’ve happened ignores what did happen and how it was predictable by those in power.
Examples would be Jews in Israel and tribes of American natives. If you can assert membership in these groups, it would be a good investment to go through the process before hand.
If you don't have ethnic ties that are useful in that way, you could join a religious sect. The main example would be Mormons. They cluster in communities, have a persecution mentality, and encourage their members to store food and other emergency supplies. You'd have to at least pretend to believe their stuff though. I have trouble thinking of other examples. Perhaps Scientologists? Jahovah's Witnesses? I assume one doesn't just "join" the Amish. Mennonites?
If there are some survivalist groups that are already off-the-grid, that could be an option. Intentional communities, particularly of the survivalist strain, often care about ethnicity too though, particularly the ones in the US.
If you can't join a group, some countries might handle collapse better than others. One might invest in immigrating to a country that could tough out a collapse. Switzerland's canton-based political system seems pretty robust. Iceland has geothermal energy. The way the Japanese came together as a country during Fukushima was impressive (but you'd probably need to be ethnically Japanese to cash in on this). Rich folks seem to think New Zealand is a smart place to bug out.
New Zealand brings up another point. If a place, country or no, is a remote island has the ability to support itself without imports, it could also be a good option.
- Land near a water source
- Learning how to cultivate land and food
- Learning how to be a good neighbor
Could be, uh, interesting given the personalities of some individuals who are 'holing up' in locales conducive to that sort of lifestyle.
Diversity is key though. I have a farm, rental property, stock, bonds, crypto, gold/silver, etc.
Regarding the sentiment, It feels like there is a cult of self-destruction (note, these may be true, but sensationalized):
- global warming is going to kill us all
- covid19 will kill is all
- inflation is soaring, better learn to eat bugs
- normalizing abortions
- mass shootings regularly on TV (though rare)
- highly addictive opioids prescribed wildly and having FDA approval (claiming they aren’t addictive)
- Castration of children without parental consent
- etc etc
I wrote this back in 2015 and it seems relevant: https://austingwalters.com/an-essay-on-wealth-and-freedom/
Freedom is only obtained through owning land. Without owning the means of production, you’re nothing more than a slave. To your point, owning land you can live off of is a protection against all form of “dooms-day” scenarios.
In doomsday scenarios I doubt people will respect ownership rights very much. In that scenario, "ownership" isn't as much of a protection as your ability to defend and maintain control over whatever valuable resources you have on the land.
In terms of protection, I guess it’s possible people will come to try and take your land, but that really depends on the scenario. In either case, if you live more rurally you’re going to probably need a gun. If you have roaming bands of criminals you’re still going to want to own your own land as opposed to a massive complex or something.
Regardless, this person was asking about financial advice. You’re still better off owning land in most cases as opposed to stocks or gold if it hits the fan. If you’re really worried about it hitting the fan, invest in guns and ammo.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landless_Workers%27_Movement
I'm really fine with being prepared for disasters, human-made or natural, but in a complete upheaval of global civilization you need more than property and a castle loaded with ammo to thrive. Looking at foreign countries ravaged by civil war, can you really imagine riding that out because you bought a farm?
The real concern are the pesticides that have reduced insect populations. They build up in the ecosystem and can take many years to flush out.
I imagine that global warming, if it hits some threshold/tipping point that changes the climate enough to wreck the land, might be the one counter-example here. Though I don't know enough about farming to know if it could sustain through a wide range of climates and potential consequences of severe temperature/climate change.
If you're in a hot climate now, move.
Wait, what? This isn't a view I'm familiar with in England
That goes to the next rational action: spend like there is no tomorrow, adjusted for risk of society not-collapsing? Pick your poison, I guess.
Take a few lessons from people who live in 2nd- and 3rd-world countries. They used to not rely on government or expect financial stability for decades ahead. Yet, they survive pretty well and some even thrive.
People didn't always have stable currencies, pension funds, and unemployment benefits over their history.
edit: I should say I lack faith in traditional retirement advice/planning, not that I have no idea how to do it.
Live in or plan to move to a lower cost location during retirement.
Don’t be too stingy and enjoy life!
My concern is that none of those things will matter in 30 years. Dumping money into 401ks/markets/property used to be sound investment advice. Today they feel more like speculation. Even holding USD/bonds is a gamble. I'm not talking about traditional risk tolerance like large/small cap or foreign markets.
Besides that, they can and have been replaced by a few calculators and the reddit personalfinance wiki.
If you see a [dead] post that shouldn't be dead, you can vouch for it by clicking on its timestamp, then clicking 'vouch' at the top of its page. There's a small karma threshold (> 30) before vouch links appear.