He's big enough now that yeah, he needs lawyers on retainer. Part of the video is to show just how insane cities are, and how they don't play by the rules if you don't litigate. This isn't how any of it is meant to work. If Louis is successful in his move, no doubt others will follow.
And no, it's not obnoxious or self centered to say that if the NY government doesn't fix it's massive number of problems that bad things are going to happen. It seems pretty clear that's the case.
It’s better to say what you mean than expect others to figure it out.
Sure, I will concede that it is the listener's responsibility to seek clarification when responding to an ambiguous statement or claim. But here, there was no ambiguity, just hyperbole.
Hyperbole is used far more often here (and on the Internet in general) than it ought to be. We can, and should, have nuanced discourse here. Let's keep the bar high.
What he means is that the people who remain will be those who are too poor to leave. Whom will be slowly replaced by wealthier and wealthier transients. Which is sad, by far the worst kind of gentrification.
You don't need any kind of net migration to do this, gentrification has already done it over the last 20 years. People who move there now don't care about that, though. They care about the city being Disneyland for rich people.
You're starting to see this in bits and pieces already. New rental space is primarily going to chain restaurants and box stores because the rent is too damn high for anyone not corporate to get started. _The Atlantic_ was talking about the issue of lots going vacant for months at a time because the owners are holding out for insane lease prices...in part because they need to pay insane taxes on the property.
I love New York (in small doses) but it's not tenable as it exists right now.
If they rent out something for a discount, it will read to a reevaluation of their entire property, which would then lead to them being underwater and impossible for them to borrow more money.
This is true not just in New York but all of the US where property owners are heavily indebted and rely on debt to both grown and maintain their businesses.
Having to default means that they basically can’t borrow anymore and can’t continue their businesses.
It has nothing to do with taxes, which would drop if they rented out their property for less.
This "too big to fail" argument is BS - they are failing and once cities start to go into death spirals they can accelerate in astonishing ways.
And just to make things extra spicy, thanks to COVID job mobility has never been greater. This isn't your fathers economy. Any of these cities taking anyone for granted do so at their own peril. San Francisco's insane policy of supporting shoplifting up to $900 has caused Wallgreens to pull out entirely, Target closes at 6PM now - what do small businesses do where their only locations are in areas afflicted with these sane policies? When losses exceed revenue they go out of business. As if COVID wasn't bad enough :p
Do you have the data for this? I just saw a story showing that CA flight is largely a talking point more than an actual phenomenon. Would love to see the numbers here.
> 2020 Migration Trends: U-Haul Ranks 50 States by Migration Growth
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Growth states are calculated by the net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks entering a state versus leaving that state in a calendar year. Migration trends data is compiled from more than 2 million one-way U-Haul truck customer transactions that occur annually.
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California ranks last by a wide margin, supplanting Illinois as the state with the greatest net loss of U-Haul trucks. California has ranked 48th or lower since 2016...
There might be other factors. Maybe people leave CA with more belongings than they arrive with. Maybe new CA jobs pay for relocation, then people eventually do a self-serve move out of CA.
Still, I found it to be an interesting data point. The UHaul outflow date starting in 2016 corresponds to the SALT deduction reforms and the worsening annual fire conditions. Both seem like plausible “tipping point” factors to kick off an exodus, among other commonly cited issues.
Yes, SF is having serious, self-inflicted issues. But SF/tech is actually a tiny portion of the CA GDP (since most tech revenue a la Apple doesn't actually get booked to CA). CA either leads the nation or is in the top 5 (states) for the following industries: movies, video games, manufacturing, agriculture, tourism, aerospace, biotech, government contracting, and energy.
They will each lose a seat in the house because they grew less than the U.S. as a whole (7.35%) and due to rounding.
I'll miss my friends I made there, but prices are already going up and since I usually like to have side-gigs it's clear that NYC is going to make that difficult as well. I hate this because I did really like how easy it was to be social in NYC, even post covid. But idk, seems like an idiotic move given how shitty the trajectory still looks for the city.
I'm curious what you mean by this? Are you talking about gig-work side-gigs and the city is clamping down on that?
I have my personal biases but I actually think the trajectory for the city is pretty positive. All the people who didn't actually want to live here can work remote jobs elsewhere, making room for people who want to have a world-class arts/food/entertainment/etc. scene at their doorstep. I know people who have left since the pandemic and people who have moved here, both groups seem happier for the change.
I don't believe NYC will ever become a "ghost town" but it certainly will look more like a pale grey image of brick and mortar where you just live in a box, go to the office, and repeat.
Poor cities can't systematically marginalize small business without hurting themselves enough to be held accountable so they don't generally do this kind of thing or when they do they fix the system quickly.
I will say, some of Louis' videos are a bit disingenuous, there are still some things open some of NYC still isn't that much of a shit-hole. Granted, even with all of this, there have been times where I've gone to meet people in Union Square park or grab dinner on the Upper West Side and I'm sad I can't do that anymore. It's weird.
Which goes to show, that NYC is truly the physical embodiment of a love hate relationship.
I would say nyc is always what you make of it and what kind of lifestyle you want to lead. It's certainly not a place for people who want yards for example.