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Comment by 71a54xd | Hacker News Reader

I've met Louis in person, he's truly a standup guy with a heart of gold. That said, he needs to pony up and get a lawyer. Making petty arguments on YouTube isn't going to help you with bureaucracy it's only going to make things worse. If government employees (state or otherwise) hate one thing, it's being called out point blank for how they either a) don't do their job or b) are effectively worthless.

To be frank, I don't see why Louis hasn't left new york / the east coast yet. I was unfortunate enough to move to NYC just in time for covid. I still enjoyed my time in New York but I really understand a lot of what Louis has been saying about the city itself. Subsequently I left. He clearly hates the business climate, makes weekly videos about how much NYC sucks. Maybe for his own health it's time to move to another state?

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> Making petty arguments on YouTube isn't going to help you with bureaucracy it's only going to make things worse.

Looks like you were wrong, from the linked video (an hour ago):

> Thank you to everyone here who made a fuss, as I doubt I would've had someone on this case this quickly otherwise. The emails & calls I received this morning from the city made me feel like a customer at the Hilton... which I don't gotta tell you is NOT the way I usually feel when contacting NYC government bureaucracies.

Apparently dealing with the NYC government is like dealing with Google. When they screw up, your best bet is to complain loudly in public and hope your complaints go viral.

He is leaving, they're planning to move to Florida, or another suitable area.

He's big enough now that yeah, he needs lawyers on retainer. Part of the video is to show just how insane cities are, and how they don't play by the rules if you don't litigate. This isn't how any of it is meant to work. If Louis is successful in his move, no doubt others will follow.

I remember him saying in another video that NYC is going to become basically a ghost town in a couple decades if this kind of behavior from the government (along with its failure to fix the real estate problems) keeps up. It's curious to wonder if that is accurate. Only time will tell I suppose

That's obnoxiously self-centered to say that if the city government doesn't fix your personal issues with it, one of the five biggest metro area in the world will become empty in decades. Sure, New York could lose the ability to maintain a vital and legal small business sector, but the city is not going anywhere. The worst that could happen is a period similar to the horrible 70s, with difficult finances and poor opportunities for people, until the city gets its head out of the sand.

You seem to be massively misunderstanding what he meant by "basically a ghost town". All he meant is that lots of people will leave, opportunity will be reduced, etc. You seem to be taking it far too literally.

And no, it's not obnoxious or self centered to say that if the NY government doesn't fix it's massive number of problems that bad things are going to happen. It seems pretty clear that's the case.

Using the right words is the responsibility of the person uttering them. Expecting others to read your mind is unrealistic.

It’s better to say what you mean than expect others to figure it out.

Communication is a two way street dude. As a speaker, its your responsibility to consider your audience when encoding your thoughts as incredibly inefficient, verbose, and imprecise human language. As a listener, your responsibility is to consider the speaker and what they mean in their context. Its also your responsibility to clarify things that you think its possible that you have misunderstood. It is of course the speaker's responsibilty then to double check that you've understood things if they get the chance.

I think we should expect better use of vocabulary from the audience at HN, who tend to be better educated than the general population. Expecting people to say "people will become discouraged and leave" instead of "NY will become a ghost town" -- when the former is what they actually mean -- is not unreasonable.

Sure, I will concede that it is the listener's responsibility to seek clarification when responding to an ambiguous statement or claim. But here, there was no ambiguity, just hyperbole.

Hyperbole is used far more often here (and on the Internet in general) than it ought to be. We can, and should, have nuanced discourse here. Let's keep the bar high.

Yep, what OP is getting at is that in time, as a side-effect of out-migration the cool things that draw people to NYC will start to slowly disappear entirely. The small bakeries, the things that bring charm to neighborhoods all over the city. Safety is by far the biggest one. Chelsea is legitimately a dangerous place to walk around and I've lived in pretty seedy areas before, especially in college (where my neighbor was robbed at knife-point and my apt was broken into by heroin addicts multiple times).

What he means is that the people who remain will be those who are too poor to leave. Whom will be slowly replaced by wealthier and wealthier transients. Which is sad, by far the worst kind of gentrification.

> Yep, what OP is getting at is that in time, as a side-effect of out-migration the cool things that draw people to NYC will start to slowly disappear entirely. The small bakeries, the things that bring charm to neighborhoods all over the city.

You don't need any kind of net migration to do this, gentrification has already done it over the last 20 years. People who move there now don't care about that, though. They care about the city being Disneyland for rich people.

>The small bakeries, the things that bring charm to neighborhoods all over the city.

You're starting to see this in bits and pieces already. New rental space is primarily going to chain restaurants and box stores because the rent is too damn high for anyone not corporate to get started. _The Atlantic_ was talking about the issue of lots going vacant for months at a time because the owners are holding out for insane lease prices...in part because they need to pay insane taxes on the property.

I love New York (in small doses) but it's not tenable as it exists right now.

All of this is wrong. Leaseholders are holding out for higher rents not because of taxes but because of property values and the corresponding loans they have.

If they rent out something for a discount, it will read to a reevaluation of their entire property, which would then lead to them being underwater and impossible for them to borrow more money.

This is true not just in New York but all of the US where property owners are heavily indebted and rely on debt to both grown and maintain their businesses.

Having to default means that they basically can’t borrow anymore and can’t continue their businesses.

It has nothing to do with taxes, which would drop if they rented out their property for less.

New York State and California have lost enough population that they are likely to loose at least one representative in the house of representatives.

This "too big to fail" argument is BS - they are failing and once cities start to go into death spirals they can accelerate in astonishing ways.

And just to make things extra spicy, thanks to COVID job mobility has never been greater. This isn't your fathers economy. Any of these cities taking anyone for granted do so at their own peril. San Francisco's insane policy of supporting shoplifting up to $900 has caused Wallgreens to pull out entirely, Target closes at 6PM now - what do small businesses do where their only locations are in areas afflicted with these sane policies? When losses exceed revenue they go out of business. As if COVID wasn't bad enough :p

> … they are failing …

Do you have the data for this? I just saw a story showing that CA flight is largely a talking point more than an actual phenomenon. Would love to see the numbers here.

https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/2020-Migration-Trends-U...

> 2020 Migration Trends: U-Haul Ranks 50 States by Migration Growth

...

Growth states are calculated by the net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks entering a state versus leaving that state in a calendar year. Migration trends data is compiled from more than 2 million one-way U-Haul truck customer transactions that occur annually.

...

California ranks last by a wide margin, supplanting Illinois as the state with the greatest net loss of U-Haul trucks. California has ranked 48th or lower since 2016...

Please correct me if I am wrong, but this appears to be a common mistake; they aren't reporting a per capita number, but a total number. When this happens, California will rank near-first (most of a good thing) or near-last (most of a bad thing) because it has the largest population.

Doesn’t the higher population affect both numbers? More UHauls are leaving CA than entering, even if both numbers are large. I think I see what you’re saying, that if you normalize per capita, they could be anywhere in the “net leaving” cohort. But it’s still a high number of UHauls going out for 5 years running.

There might be other factors. Maybe people leave CA with more belongings than they arrive with. Maybe new CA jobs pay for relocation, then people eventually do a self-serve move out of CA.

Still, I found it to be an interesting data point. The UHaul outflow date starting in 2016 corresponds to the SALT deduction reforms and the worsening annual fire conditions. Both seem like plausible “tipping point” factors to kick off an exodus, among other commonly cited issues.

California is a huge state. And led the US economy during COVID. And had the largest and fastest post-lockdown recovery. Oh, and during that time actually strengthened its position as the world's 5th largest economy.

Yes, SF is having serious, self-inflicted issues. But SF/tech is actually a tiny portion of the CA GDP (since most tech revenue a la Apple doesn't actually get booked to CA). CA either leads the nation or is in the top 5 (states) for the following industries: movies, video games, manufacturing, agriculture, tourism, aerospace, biotech, government contracting, and energy.

Both New York State and California grew in population between the 2010 and 2020 census (by 4.25% and 6.13%, respectively [1]).

They will each lose a seat in the house because they grew less than the U.S. as a whole (7.35%) and due to rounding.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_census

Growing less than the average is pretty much shrinking though.

New York’s population loss isn’t coming from downstate, it’s people leaving dying economies in the southern tier and north country and not coming back.

Detroit is a prime example of failed industry, and horrible leadership.

Yeah, I'm working remote for the current startup I work for (which used to have offices in NYC). Basically my deal was, I'm leaving until there's an office because my lease is up and I'm not signing a new one if there's no office. Because, why live in NYC in a box if there's no office (which I did for all of 2020). I've been interviewing and somewhat considering moving back to NYC for a nice pay bump, but even though I hate WFH I'm now considering cutting the process short and just looking for remote gigs.

I'll miss my friends I made there, but prices are already going up and since I usually like to have side-gigs it's clear that NYC is going to make that difficult as well. I hate this because I did really like how easy it was to be social in NYC, even post covid. But idk, seems like an idiotic move given how shitty the trajectory still looks for the city.

> I usually like to have side-gigs it's clear that NYC is going to make that difficult as well

I'm curious what you mean by this? Are you talking about gig-work side-gigs and the city is clamping down on that?

I have my personal biases but I actually think the trajectory for the city is pretty positive. All the people who didn't actually want to live here can work remote jobs elsewhere, making room for people who want to have a world-class arts/food/entertainment/etc. scene at their doorstep. I know people who have left since the pandemic and people who have moved here, both groups seem happier for the change.

As Louis has shown a number of store fronts have simply closed shop, and the landlords don't care to fill the spot. Some have just outright sold their buildings and they just sit there without occupancy for years. It's a very unnatural market that shoos away normal people that don't have a few million lying around.

I don't believe NYC will ever become a "ghost town" but it certainly will look more like a pale grey image of brick and mortar where you just live in a box, go to the office, and repeat.

In other videos (especially for the prior license issue about resell of used goods vs. the repair license) he does seem to talk to lawyers who are familiar with the city rules but has reported not having great avenues to success. The problem seems genuinely tied to some parts of the city government still assessing fees/fines/so forth, but the COVID rules are preventing escalation/remedy in person in a meaningful way and the only way to get traction is to do so. The general vibe he's been putting out across the last couple months is just that he's feeling like he's getting shook down since in his perspective he's holding his end of the bargain with paying for licenses yet can't get the city to hold theirs.

Not every city is like this. Rich cities that can systematically screw people and get away with it are like this because business like this one aren't a large enough overall part of their revenue stream for them to care about.

Poor cities can't systematically marginalize small business without hurting themselves enough to be held accountable so they don't generally do this kind of thing or when they do they fix the system quickly.

Indeed - but even "rich" cities aren't totally isolated. I'd encourage people to watch some of Louis's other videos where he roams the streets and even the national brands have pulled out of NYC - but the amount of vacancies overall is pretty astonishing. Between the "summer of LOVE" and COVID it's been a pretty harsh one/two punch and there is already a significant momentum that has started of resources pulling out of the city - and once these trends start they are pretty damn hard to reverse. NYC is only rich if there is commerce for them to tax.

Yep, I was in NYC for about a month prior to covid and throughout 2020. Small business is absolutely decimated and last summer was truly one hell of a cluster-fuck. I witnessed first hand, the police doing nothing as huge stores were looted. Louis is also correct about NYC basically being a place where it only makes sense to live there if you're insanely rich. $180k minimum to even have your own place that isn't a box.

I will say, some of Louis' videos are a bit disingenuous, there are still some things open some of NYC still isn't that much of a shit-hole. Granted, even with all of this, there have been times where I've gone to meet people in Union Square park or grab dinner on the Upper West Side and I'm sad I can't do that anymore. It's weird.

Which goes to show, that NYC is truly the physical embodiment of a love hate relationship.

I'm in the same situation but I'm not earning 180k, I live just fine in my apartment and don't consider it a box (I am also a minimalist and don't have any hobbies that take up space). Small business around me that relied on working commuters were decimated but small business that relied on actual working folks living in nyc are just fine and the summer is actually booming.

I would say nyc is always what you make of it and what kind of lifestyle you want to lead. It's certainly not a place for people who want yards for example.

I remember seeing a video by Louis, where he talked about speaking to a lawyer. He was told to pay a fine, instead of going through the legal trouble. It would be both easier and cost him less, because it would probably happen again, and then he would have to lawyer up again.

He mentions in his videos that it is largely because he has built up a team of people with a very specific expertise built over years working with him, that you can't just find - meaning training people up from scratch. He'd effectively be started the business from scratch in that case. He's offered them all very good relocation benefits but obviously if people are content they're not going to want to move and he doesn't want to forcefully coerce them to.

Why would you move from a city in which your skills are in high demand, and you already have a rolodex of clients with whom you have established a relationship? The relocation benefits have to be obscene to counter that glorious opportunity.

As long as New Yorkers still exist in their dense millions, service providers will always appear to fill a market need, even when they have to jump hoops (to a point). NYC knows this. China knows this.

I believe a large portion of his business is now mail in repairs vs walk in repairs. Laptop repair also isn’t something that people have a regular customer base to rely on, it is very inconsistent. Rent and taxes in NYC are a massive amount of money, I’m sure he has ran the numbers to determine what’s best financially.

Mail-in repairs require a lot more trust than brick-and-mortar locations, especially for new operations. I can accept that moving out of NY may save him money - my argument is that the same is unlikely to apply to his workers who have a specialized skill that is in demand in their current location. Would they choose the job over the city (and their friends, neighbors, leases, etc)? I have my doubts.

I love this aspect of USA. Hate the gov? Move to another state. It’s not easy and slightly prohibitive, but less prohibitive than moving to another country.

It also encourages states to compete with each other, try new ideas and attract businesses; for e.g. Arizona and Southwest chip industry: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-southwest-is-americas-new-f...

> Making petty arguments on YouTube isn't going to help you with bureaucracy it's only going to make things worse. If government employees (state or otherwise) hate one thing, it's being called out point blank for how they either a) don't do their job or b) are effectively worthless.

Don't talk about the problem or the useless government employees will retaliate. How do we get rid of them?

> makes weekly videos about how much NYC sucks.

This coule be part of his appeal to his followers. If he left NY, then he'd just be an outsider complaining on the internet about something he's no longer affects him. Plus, you can dislike the bizenv, but love other aspects of the area.

> To be frank, I don't see why Louis hasn't left new york / the east coast yet.

He mentions in the video that he's working on setting up another site, but he has employees in New York that don't want to move and he doesn't want to throw them under the bus by closing his New York location.

> Maybe for his own health it's time to move to another state?

He's doing just fine. His youtube rankings are pretty "up there" for that genre of channel. There is no way to know how that compares to the repair shop, but I suspect it's at least a comparable income stream.

He makes 1st person videos of himself riding around Manhattan on his bike, free-associating and showing abandoned store-fronts BECAUSE it gets clicks-- otherwise it would be a waste of time. There's libertarian edge to it all. It looks like the commenters are heavily populated with red-state doom-scrollers rubber-necking at the "downfall" of NYC.

If Rossman would move out of NYC to somewhere else, he wouldn't have as much grist for the youtube channel, would he? He would have to go back to making strictly repair videos, loose his whole staff, and probably have less volume in his repair business as well.

Yes, but he's also made numerous videos about how he makes less than a pittance of income from YouTube. Yes, the doom-scrolling applies here, but he's from New York originally and you can tell the amicus is how a place he grew up in is still going down-hill.

I was in NYC for all of covid and can confirm that Fox News is full of it when it comes to "rampant crime in NYC" however it's not a perfectly rosy picture either in terms of the recovery of small business and character of the city.

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