I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words.
EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike
EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike
From: https://web.archive.org/web/20130606172030/http://www.washin...
Moreover, the west has a vested interest to keep el-sisi happy. There is a suspicion about the recent political instability in Ethiopia is partly because of Egypt
http://nemozen.semret.org/2021/06/pay-any-price-bear-any-bur...
A. The dam already contains more than 4.9 billion cubic meters of water. That along with the wet season rain will mean breaching it will result in catastrophic flooding of Sudan which will result in death and loss of arable land.
Each day that goes on, the water level is increasing, after a some time, Egypt itself will face flooding.
B. Egypt has powerful military but it seems it was designed to fight Israel, not Ethiopia. The distances are just too great. Not many nations in the world have that kind of power projection in the world. That's an exclusive club of great powers like Russia, France, and superpowers like the USA and China. Most Egyptian fighter/bomber aircraft don't have the range to reach Ethiopia. And Sudan seem to be against war so they're unlikely to grant them passage as they will be the ones that suffer the consequences of a breached dam.
The Egyptian airforce is getting new jets from France and Russia. Last I checked, which was months ago, only a few of those jets were delivered. It's unclear that the air crew have the resources, time, training to accomplish the difficult task of dam busting.
C. The renaissance dam is a gravity dam. Giant concrete structure. It's not going to be easy to destroy. And attempts could just make it collapse on the water spillways. Which might end up even more disastrous.
D. Dam or no dam, the water still flows from Ethiopia. And the Nile is not like the Amazon river in that it doesn't contain as much water. If Egyptian leadership plays a zero-sum game, where only they use the Nile then Ethiopia has zero incentive to protect and develop the water. In the age of climate change, this is a huge factor. Diverting some of the smaller tributaries would at most require a single grader and a few days of work. Diverting some 10 or 20% of the water would not be difficult. And that is far more disastrous to the stated objective of Egypt (Which is to maintain the colonial era agreement that allows them and Sudan 100% of the water).
E. Ethiopia is currently a divided country. But when it comes to the dam, its people are 100% on the same page. Most western lenders don't finance any project on the Nile due to Egyptian lobbying. So Ethiopian populace paid for it out of pocket. Most salaried people payed for it out of pocket. WHat that usually means is giving up a month of your salary for the dam. And When Ethiopia is united, it is capable of putting up a good fight.
As for the PRC, who do you think loaned to Ethiopia the money for buying the generators?
And also, PRC has dams on similar rivers. It unlikely to positively accept such an act.
To put this into concrete terms: the Renaissance dam is 476ft tall. According to Wikipedia[0], non-nuclear bunker buster bombs are limited to a penetration depth of ~20ft of reinforced concrete, which would barely dent a dam this size. Even the USAF would have a hard time destroying this dam from the air.
If I was an unpopular regime, I would see this, and feel pretty good about my chances of exploiting it. A war you can probably win against a much more powerful enemy, over an issue you have broad support for, is like a golden goose for an unstable government.
You can be as obnoxious and intransigent as you like, because the negotiations will be behind closed doors, and you'll still seem like you're representing the national interest.
On the other hand, if you're Egypt, a war you will probably lose is also very valuable. It's a good way to rally people around the flag when it looks like it might happen, then if it does come down to it, often 'probably losing' a war is way better than definitely losing a leadership challenge.
So again, the incentives are to be obnoxious and intransigent. You don't want this issue to go away - it's a really good option to have in your back pocket if you get into trouble.
So the politics here are pretty bleak.
I don't understand what this means.
There's also a lot more Amazon river to hold water.
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/03/egypt-us-tensio...
That certainly seems pretty ally-like.
Egypt was supported by the USSR for much of the Cold War. Prying them away from the Soviet's sphere, at the same time building a buffer for Israel, was a major coup. The aid is the price of that, regardless of who is in power in Cairo. Again, US ally doesn't buy SU-35 from Russia.
Middle East history and politics is mind bogglingly complicated. It's naive to try to reduce it to one sentence. American only Middle East ally is Israel. Iraq and Iran used to be close partners. I wouldn't be surprised if Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey will be mentioned the same way some day.
This is Egypt’s lively hood. They won’t allow this to happen.
While the Biden Administration is less absolutely in line with Egypt than Trump was on the issue, they only seem to be relatively deemphasizing GERD to apply more pressure on other humanitarian and security issues with Ethiopia. While I can't see them sanctioning a unilateral attack, absent some UNSC resolution that gets both sides onboard, I can't see them taking action against Egypt, even by way of anything more than symbolic at the UN, over it.
Wait, you think the PRC will veto UNSC action on the dam (what is currently being considered) to force an Egyptian unilateral military response? What's the gain?
By 'airforce action on the dam' I assume you mean aircraft bombing of the dam. By when would this happen? (ie when would the bet be closed?)
[edit] I will admit I thought your idea was crazy, but you are not totally wrong looking into it, but this is about Egypt objecting it being filled in one year, which they'll let pass if conditions are ok rather than war, and going from talking about it to actually bombing it means they have think about what if Ethiopia bombs the Aswan Dam in response. Geneva Convention also comes into it.
They won't do it, all over it's being filled to quick. Bomb some military installations to make them slow down instead.