Comment by Retric | Hacker News Reader

Comment by Retric | Hacker News Reader

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California has much lower housing costs outside of major cities. It’s exodus is seen as unusual simply because it’s a a populous state, but rate wise it’s hardly unusual. IMO, people leaving California in large numbers is also a function of how many people move into the state because people who moved long distances once are more likely to move again.

As 2020 was a serious outlier I am sticking with U.S. states by net domestic migration (From July 1, 2018 to July 1, 2019):

Net domestic migration rate per 1,000 inhabitants: Alaska −12.96, Hawaii −9.76, New York −9.29, Illinois −8.28, Connecticut −6.19, Louisiana −5.60, New Jersey −5.51, California −5.15, skipping several places Delaware 7.15, South Carolina 10.30, Arizona 12.50, Nevada 14.03, Idaho 15.31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territ...

It’s the territories that are seeing the fastest changes. American Samoa –26.1, Guam –11.0, Northern Mariana Islands –15.4, Puerto Rico –14.1, U.S. Virgin Islands –7.5

Suburban and housing costs in California are very high by national standards. Is your argument that the people who are moving out of California overwhelmingly non-native Californians?

Once you are out of the main coastal communities housing prices drop dramatically. I have friends in Eureka renting a gigantic house for like $1200/mo, and I saw studio apartments in the city center in the order of $750/mo. The SoCal equivalents would be $3500/mo-plus and $1500/mo-plus, respectively.

So Eureka Ca, which is in the middle of nowhere costs about the same as the suburbs of Raleigh NC. Raleigh has a mid level international airport with direct flights to Europe and other continents, has many other cities and great schools in it, and nearby (NC State, UNC Chapel Hill, Duke, etc), (the whole research triangle), etc... with plenty of job opportunities.

What does Eureka have (appart for nice nature)? How much does one has to drive to go to an airport that can fly directly to Europe or Asia? If your local business closed, how long and how much would you have to drive to find another job?

Commanding a mid-level metro prices, without the economy vibrancy of one, is sheer overpricing. And maybe that's why so many locals are leaving. (the influx is usually immigrants, which are more willing to put up with crappier conditions).

The people on the bottom 50% aren't taking international flights and proximity to international airport is honestly a worthless metric for 90% of the population.

In fact 500,000 of them without health insurance are looking encouragingly at a possible medicaid expansion 11 years after the ACA passed.

it is a proxy for jobs and a large labour market and choice, even for poor people. Eureka doesn't have one, yet it commands prices of a mid sized metro.

CA is overpriced by a long shot

I don’t have a horse in this race, but must point out that Eureka sits directly on the Pacific Coast of the mainland United States, which adds significant desirability to a town that is admittedly best known for having a lot of tweakers.

(In fact Eureka is fairly centrally located on the coast, which is kind of cool, too. I’d want to live in Arcata instead because less tweakers. But Arcata isn’t directly on the coast, so you can’t really compare them)

This is really pedantic, but Eureka isn't really directly on the coast either, it sits on the far side of Humboldt Bay and is shielded by an isthmus that is mostly empty land. That said the coast is a 10 minute drive (and maybe 25-30 minute drive for Arcata)

As for the populace... they don't call it Eutweaka for nothin

The more we narrow our focus the less meaningful the discussion. Whether Eureka is overpriced is a digression. The parent post to this whole offshoot is implying that comparing a carefully chosen podunk town in California with one of the only two big cities in the entire state of NC shows why people are leaving CA.

Eureka can be overpriced while the overall thesis remains carefully constructed malarkey. NC has grown by 300% in the last century while CA has grown by 900% in the same period. More recently NC has grown at about 1% per year over the last decade. California grew similarly over the same period until 2016 when it started to slow down. Its barely a blip in the graph and needs no complicated explanation.

I chose Eureka because I know people there and have direct experience with the town, even if it is an extreme example. If I knew folks and the housing situation in Stockton, or Modesto, or Bakersfield, or even Temecula, or any of those other armpit Central-Valley cities, I would have used them as an example.

And you're right, maybe Raleigh is a better choice. Or maybe Minneapolis. Or perhaps Boise, or any number of other mid-size capitol cities. But they aren't California.

I think the point is that we should compare major metropolitan centers/coastal communities in CA to major metropolitan centers and coastal communities in other states. That there are places relatively cheaper in CA is not in question, but those cheaper places are likely similar to even cheaper places in other states.

The opportunities available in Eureka are not the same ones available in the Bay Area (although it's likely gotten better). I suspect they don't even stack up to Raleigh favorably. Eureka is much smaller than many bay area cities, and more importantly, is isolated, so it feels much smaller than even the ones that it is similarly sized to, as once you leave Eureka, you're not immediately entering another city of the same or larger size.

Right but this is just by virtue of CA being a big, long, state where the northern reaches are far away from the economically active parts.

Eureka is charming enough, but it has no specific attractive force over any other (very) small coastal city where the next-larger city is many hours' drive away. Compare to Crescent City, or southern coastal Oregon.

So yes, you're still in California up there, and housing is less expensive. But there are no jobs (WFH tide floats all boats), and it isn't the California that most people are looking for. See also: Bakersfield.

Median income in Eureka is well below the national median income. It's a beautiful area, very mild weather, old growth redwoods nearby, and the Eureka/Arcata/Fortuna area has universities, some good restaurants, and top notch breweries. But there's almost no work. Illegal cannabis growing used to be really big in that area, and now legal cannabis is significant, but pay is really low.

Sure beats Crescent City though.

Bakersfield at least has agriculture and oil extraction industries. But the heat and the air quality make it an unattractive place to live.

Susanville is a small town with a thriving industry in corrections, so lots of jobs if you don’t mind being a prison guard. It’s also an hour or so out of Reno, and has cheap housing. It’s also nice nature wise, and if you head north you are warned there are no gas stations for a hundred miles or so.

But moving to rural Nevada, rural Oregon, or rural Arizona is much cheaper than your example of a very cheap city in California. Even moving to Eugene, Reno, or Flagstaff would be cheaper total living expenses.

Absolutely true; you can easily double your bang for buck in California housing by moving outside of major areas. And those less populated areas are still _really_ nice.

But for every buck you save, you lose an hour of your life to our terrible transportation infrastructure. Twice the house, four times the drive. It's why the housing price equation is as unbalanced as it is here.

> I have friends in Eureka renting a gigantic house for like $1200/mo

They must have started renting that house at least 10 years ago and had a landlord who never rose the price. Because rental prices for large houses are $2000+ (Eureka/Arcata) or $1800+ (McKinnleyville) now.

Eureka is a moderate sized town by most standards, and you can get cheaper places in similarly sized towns or larger small cities throughout the US. Probably get apartments much bigger than a studio, too.

Oh yeah plenty of cheap places in El Centro and around the Salton Sea.

I clarified, I am saying the net migration from California is hardly unusual as a percentage of the population. However, the magnitude of exodus is a function of both the size of the state and the number of people who recently moved to California.

It’s not that an overwhelming percentage of people leaving recently moved in, but they do represent a larger percentage of people moving out which is normal.

High prices = strong demand

Unless it's a temporary trend driven by speculators. Looking at CA house prices is like looking at FAANG stock. People will keep jumping in to join the ride until it finally crashes.

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