Yes, we should basis reality on a fictional story... totally makes sense. If we're going to go that route, I say we start throwing politicians in volcanos as the starting point. It worked against Sauron.
Maybe you're on to something....
Jokes aside, whenever people point to "Star Trek" as an example of post-scarcity society I recoil at just how over-simplified and not well thought out the comparison is.
I do find this illuminating, though, because if someone fundamentally believes problems are caused by a lack of resources - or more specifically a lack of access to resources - then it makes perfect sense to them to think post-scarcity will be a paradise. They're looking at the problems in a fundamentally different way than you or I are.
If you run this trend forward even 50 years what jobs do you really think will exist that wont basically be scientifically or academically inclined?
Intersaller is probably more on the mark. Blight striking nearly every staple food is the real horror in the night. Cavendish bananas are under massive threat of a fungal disease wiping them out, forever. The same thing can happen at anytime to other overproduced mono-crops.
But then let's take humanity at it's current state. If everyone believes working with their hands is beneath them, are we really going to reach automation peak? Ignoring the scifi fantasy of skynet ai, you really think there wont be exploitation? The one thing humans are brilliant at, it's exploiting a system. You have to pacify a human to stop them from min-maxing. It's what we do. We are already seeing the adverse affects of too many systems online. Ransomware is not a problem, it's a goddamn well oiled industry. The future luddite wont just break a loom or two. They can stop fuel for tens of millions of people. Turn off cooling/heating to homes. And if wireless bots run farms... well, I dont think you need a good imagination to figure out what will happen there.