Comment by rantwasp | Hacker News Reader

Comment by rantwasp | Hacker News Reader

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Here. let me write this again:

Most houses in PNW do not have AC. Do you know why? Because up to 10-15 years ago you did not need it. The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year.

10-15 years ago you did not need AC. Today every summer you're in danger of a heatstroke if you don't have it. This is not cherry-picking

Here. From the national weather service:

284

SXUS76 KSEW 290128

RERSEW

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE

628 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2021

...RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY, JUNE AND ALL-TIME AS OF 6 PM...

LOCATION TODAY RECORD / YEAR

SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 91 2008*

OLYMPIA 110 92 2008*

QUILLAYUTE 110 92 1995

HOQUIAM 95 86 2008

BELLINGHAM 99 84 1995

NWS SEATTLE 107 89 2000

&&

LOCATION TODAY JUNE RECORD / DATE

SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 104 27/2021

OLYMPIA 110 105 27/2021

QUILLAYUTE 110 92 24/2017*

HOQUIAM 95 103 27/2021

BELLINGHAM 99 95 27/2021*

NWS SEATTLE 107 101 27/2021

&&

LOCATION TODAY ALL-TIME RECORD / DATE

SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 104 6/27/2021

OLYMPIA 110 105 6/27/2021

QUILLAYUTE 110 99 8/9/1981

HOQUIAM 95 103 6/27/2021

BELLINGHAM 99 96 7/29/2009

NWS SEATTLE 107 105 7/29/2009

* RECORDS SET ON MULTIPLE DATES; LATEST SHOWN

That’s not statistical proof of causality. Again, how do you know this isn’t just a once in a thousand years event independent of climate change?

> The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year.

There are numerous years, going back decades, with highs higher than the numbers you claim. See https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WA/Seattle...

what kind of statistical proof are you looking for?

Can statistics ever proof causality? At what point do you draw the line?

The numbers are not the numbers I claim. Those are the numbers the national weather service is reporting. I call BS on numerous years with numbers higher than I claim.

The numbers recorded now are the highest on record since we started keeping track. Show me where else you see 110 for Seattle being recorded. Ever.

> Can statistics ever proof causality?

Yes, this is an entire field of study. It’s what spawned phrases like “statistical significance”.

> I call BS on numerous years with numbers higher than I claim.

You said in your two earlier comments, “The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year.” I shared evidence that Seattle regularly surpassed that level historically. You’re now moving the goal post by asking me to show a higher temperature than today. That question doesn’t matter since it still isn’t evidence that the record high is caused by climate change.

I think you may have missed the only portion of their argument that wasn't cherry picking:

"10-15 years ago you did not need AC. Today every summer you're in danger of a heatstroke if you don't have it."

I would count this as a decently statistical argument, anecdotal as it is, because it's an economic observation, that if true, signals that the market is lagging behind some environmental change.

Also, PDX did record 117F, by far the highest record in recorded history, by like 10F.

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