Unprecedented Heat Wave in Pacific Northwest Driven by Climate Change
scientificamerican.com
scientificamerican.com
this is where we are today. people melting because of the heat and still debating if global warming is a thing. jfc. this is where we are.
What was the last year in recorded history that was colder than average?
I don’t know, but where I am (Netherlands) it’s been quite cool lately (Max 19C/66F today) and it’s summer. But if I point that out people say it’s part of the human made CG phenomenon. In other words, every temperature manifestation is part of the phenomenon and we’re supposed to have a normal and this is abnormal. Was there ever a normal, really? Measurements of records are also controversial, as technical capacity to measure temperature (including having more thermometers worldwide) has increased overtime.
Yes: Earth naturally fluctuates between warming and cooling cyclical at a steady rate of change.
"The climate has always changed and fluctuated, due to natural drivers that control our climate system. Temperature proxy graphs showing the climate over millions of years---via oxygen isotope data, ice cores, and other geological records---reveals fluctuations from Hothouse worlds to Greenhouse worlds and Icehouse worlds. In the past 10,000 years---due to Milankovitch cyclicity---the Earth has naturally warmed and should do so for ~40,000 years more before the effects reverse, shifting temperatures towards another ice-age.
"Since the industrial revolution, humans have expelled copious amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, triggering a dramatic warming over a short time period. The average global temperature was 12˚C during the Last Glacial Maximum. During the following Interglacial period, the average global temperature slowly rose to 13.8˚C. Since 1880, it has increased another 0.6˚ degrees to 14.4˚C (as of 2015). This warming rate is ~50 times faster than the rate of warming during the previous 21,000 years."
> Measurements of records are also controversial.
Bollocks? I doubt there is any controversy among the majority of climate scientists.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/01/thorough-not-thoroug...
That said, we’re mostly dealing with models here. I can expect this community to love graphs and models, but also to know how unstable and unreliable they can be. In other words, they often fail to communicate (with) reality. In the climate change field, we can see that by the consistent failure to predict the climate future such as rising of the oceans and other extreme heat predictions going back the 80s or 90s.
There is a lot of money to be made with this perspective (heard the saying- what hurt can it be to pollute less?). Taxes and more taxes and government partnering with private players to offer solutions to this potentially fabricated problem (even if only by promoting models that agree with the story). And that is just one of the benefits that can be gained from this narrative. Power grabs and regulation is also of interest here, in my view.
Then, to defend these interests, you repress and silence scientists who disagree and accuse all opposition of conspiracy. Check who created this term, by the way. Was it a private, independent smart individual or the government?
Rephrased Question: What was the last year in recorded history that the global average temperature was lower than average?
As a second question,
Define x = “normal” || “average”
If you are questioning what “x” or “x temperature” is as an axiom, then what is your definition of “x”?
I don’t want to talk past you if you have a different definition. If you have a different definition than I do however, I need to understand what that definition is before we have any sort of discussion.
And as said, the availability of thermometers (specially in the oceans) has increased over time (i.e. more data coming in more recently). This should skew averages. Besides, the validity of thinking in averages in a pretty wild range of temperatures this planet demonstrates could be questioned anyway.
Furthermore, cities have grown dramatically in the last century. Urbanisation creates more heat and thermometers in cities (which of course are used as a reference too), have been steadily reflecting that fact, obviously.
But the problem is, discussing those things put you in the "petrol head" "let's pollute" field, which is definitely not my case. They are attempts to silence the discussion, in my view.
We're going to grow oranges in Alaska!
> “It’s always difficult to immediately quantify how much impact climate change has had on a climate extreme, but there is plenty of evidence to show that high temperatures and heat waves have become worse due to climate change,” he wrote. “Heatwaves across the contiguous United States have occurred more often and lasted longer since the 1960s, which is consistent with a warming climate due to climate change.”
Cliff Mass, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Washington in Seattle, maintains a public facing weather blog that analyzes such events. He had a recent post (https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/incredible-temperatur...) that suggests this is more of a chance convergence of various factors, including an air compression caused by air sinking off the Western slopes of the Cascade mountain range. More specifically he says:
> Finally, a number of people have asked about the role of global warming on this event. Is global warming contributing to this heatwave? The answer is certainly yes. Would we have had a record heatwave without global warming. The answer is yes as well.
Professor Mass has also promised a future blog post analyzing this event further in the context of global warming.
> Let me end with the golden rule of temperature extremes: the bigger the temperature extreme the SMALLER the contribution of global warming. Think about that.
That would be laughable. Yet people have no concerns about cherry picking anecdotal evidence when they say "see, it's so hot today, that means global warming".
We have already established that AGW is real. Nobody in their right minds are asking "Does this unprecedented heat wave prove the existence of global warming?"
They are asking "Now that we know global warming is happening and that we're experiencing an unprecedented heat wave, is it likely that they are linked and we'll likely see more such events in the coming years?"
That’s the claim that spurious and unproven.
And yes, it’s not different than having a cold snap and saying “this cold snap is making people question if global warming is happening”.
Both are just cherry picked anecdotes.
More like “if you were a bee keeper and got bit between 3 and 5 times a day and I introduced a more aggressive bee and you got bit 5 times two days in a row it proves it was due to the more aggressive bee”.
Whether this is due to climate change, urban development or something else entirely could certainly be explained in more depth, but the trend is there.
Though, that was before Sea-Tac was the official weather station: https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/heres-why-s...
A four day heat wave is not very compelling data on its own.
But behind you someone shouts “the train was 10 minutes late on one day 20 years ago”. Do you dismiss your hypothesis?
The fact is that throughout the world there has been an increase in unprecedented weather patterns. Right now in Argentina they're having record snowfalls, and that is just as concerning as the unheard-of 43C weather today in British Columbia.
You're burying your head in the sand.
Portland, OR has seen 115F.
Most houses in PNW do not have AC. Do you know why? Because up to 10-15 years ago you did not need it. The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year.
Yes, this is totally cherry-picking.
When I moved to Seattle nine years ago, I was happy that we had only one week that would hit 80+. Annoying to have those hot days without AC, but whatever - it was much better than the Midwest. We'd do just fine for those few days.
But it's been warming up. And while I wouldn't use this one week alone as evidence of a trend, the fact that it was >110°F today is wholly in-line (IMHO) of what we've been seeing. I read the other day that this is "a once in a millennium" event. How long until we have another such event? I'm guessing it'll be before my teenagers graduate from high school.
Most houses in PNW do not have AC. Do you know why? Because up to 10-15 years ago you did not need it. The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year.
10-15 years ago you did not need AC. Today every summer you're in danger of a heatstroke if you don't have it. This is not cherry-picking
Here. From the national weather service:
284
SXUS76 KSEW 290128
RERSEW
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE
628 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2021
...RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY, JUNE AND ALL-TIME AS OF 6 PM...
LOCATION TODAY RECORD / YEAR
SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 91 2008*
OLYMPIA 110 92 2008*
QUILLAYUTE 110 92 1995
HOQUIAM 95 86 2008
BELLINGHAM 99 84 1995
NWS SEATTLE 107 89 2000
&&
LOCATION TODAY JUNE RECORD / DATE
SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 104 27/2021
OLYMPIA 110 105 27/2021
QUILLAYUTE 110 92 24/2017*
HOQUIAM 95 103 27/2021
BELLINGHAM 99 95 27/2021*
NWS SEATTLE 107 101 27/2021
&&
LOCATION TODAY ALL-TIME RECORD / DATE
SEA-TAC AIRPORT 107 104 6/27/2021
OLYMPIA 110 105 6/27/2021
QUILLAYUTE 110 99 8/9/1981
HOQUIAM 95 103 6/27/2021
BELLINGHAM 99 96 7/29/2009
NWS SEATTLE 107 105 7/29/2009
* RECORDS SET ON MULTIPLE DATES; LATEST SHOWN
> The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year.
There are numerous years, going back decades, with highs higher than the numbers you claim. See https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WA/Seattle...
Can statistics ever proof causality? At what point do you draw the line?
The numbers are not the numbers I claim. Those are the numbers the national weather service is reporting. I call BS on numerous years with numbers higher than I claim.
The numbers recorded now are the highest on record since we started keeping track. Show me where else you see 110 for Seattle being recorded. Ever.
Yes, this is an entire field of study. It’s what spawned phrases like “statistical significance”.
> I call BS on numerous years with numbers higher than I claim.
You said in your two earlier comments, “The most you would get would be 80-85 once a year.” I shared evidence that Seattle regularly surpassed that level historically. You’re now moving the goal post by asking me to show a higher temperature than today. That question doesn’t matter since it still isn’t evidence that the record high is caused by climate change.
"10-15 years ago you did not need AC. Today every summer you're in danger of a heatstroke if you don't have it."
I would count this as a decently statistical argument, anecdotal as it is, because it's an economic observation, that if true, signals that the market is lagging behind some environmental change.
Also, PDX did record 117F, by far the highest record in recorded history, by like 10F.
Climate change is causing this trend. It is not an isolated event. There are expert that study climate.
It is a false equivalence to call "cherry picking" the result of many years of study and confirmed trends with what an TV anchor says to appeal to their audience.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-no...
“ Using a climate model, the researchers compared simulations accounting for climate change with scenarios in which human-caused global warming did not exist. They found that the influence of climate change roughly doubled the risk of an individual heat wave. The key to the breakthrough was framing the question in the right way—not asking whether climate change "caused" the event, but how much it might have affected the risk of it occurring at all.”
https://www.foxnews.com/science/trump-says-east-could-use-so...
Close enough?
If it's a handful of days a year, you can make do if you're in good health, anyway. One room with a window or minisplit a/c and everyone in that room will be much more comfortable than none and can be affordable if you shop at the right time.
Designing to get the right airflow, rejecting direct solar heat, and what not can help a ton with regular summer heat in the PNW. Or at least, not being totally stupid about it and making greenhouses instead of green houses. Tree shadows help a ton too, although with warmer weather, there's fire risk, and you need to select trees carefully to avoid fall risk (just say no to cottonwoods near your house, cause they like to fall and drop limbs)
https://www.epa.gov/snap/reducing-hydrofluorocarbon-hfc-use-...
Also we have to live with the fact now that the planet is significantly warmer now, and is getting warmer still. Even if we stop polluting now, there is already much damage done. Peoples life’s have been changed, and we will need to change our habits to stay healthy in this altered world. This includes more air conditioning systems in places that previously didn’t need them. Staying healthy is just as important as stopping the climate crisis.
when i moved to the PNW 20 years ago the summer had maybe a weekend or two that were hot and by hot I mean maybe 80. You would get laughed out of a room if you asked why doesn't anyone have AC.
Nowadays, nobody is laughing. The summers are getting hotter and hotter. We are IMHO at a point where if you're renting/buying/building a house AC should definitely be one of the things you must consider.