Comment by paulpauper | Hacker News Reader

Comment by paulpauper | Hacker News Reader

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But each time Amazon added a category, they acquired users who would spend on their existing categories, and, later, merchants who could offer newer categories. Each search tweak Google made gave them a new set of tools to monetize clicks, but also reinforced the instinct to perform lots of searches. Facebook’s marketplace is partly a way to monetize the site, but it also gives buyers and sellers one more reason to log in every day; as it turns out, one of the most addictive games ever launched on the Facebook platform is called “Affordable Exercise Equipment Quest,” and I’m a daily active user.

If someone had just bought shares of these three stocks a decade ago and turned off their computer,went outside, and did nothing else, they would have beat probably 99.5% of money managers/funds. Moreover, it would not have required any special insight or skills, but rather just investing in companies that a decade ago were already very big and dominant and in the news, not trying to find a hidden gem.

If only someone had bought shares in companies like Chevron and Exxon that a decade ago were already very big and dominant and in the news, they'd have almost as much money now as what they invested.

EDIT: I don't mean this in a snarky manner, I just know that I would personally lack the skill to pick stock market winners, and if I were to pick investments based on publicity, then all my money would be in Tesla, doge, Gamestop and Bitcoin. That would be akin to gambling.

> If someone had just bought shares of these three stocks a decade ago and turned off their computer,went outside, and did nothing else, they would have beat probably 99.5% of money managers/funds.

Will that be true a decade from now? For these companies to 10x again would end up with massive market caps, nearly $20T for AMZN.

If amazon, google, and facbeook become the economy, then there is still much more room for upside. We saw this with Covid in which Amazon and Walmart became major suppliers and distributors of goods and services.

Some hindsight bias there I suspect. If it was so obvious a decade ago can you identify the next decades’ no-brainer investments?

Cloudflare and stripe spring to mind. Companies clearly on a trajectory to become dominant, but not so large that they have no more room to grow, like Apple.

How likely do you think antitrust action is over the next decade? Without it, it's just going to be the same 3 companies again.

Yes, if ten years later you assume magic stock-picking skills then you can outperform the market. There's no strategy or anything interesting here. You're not 'investing in companies that a decade ago were already very big', you're cherrypicking a few such companies based on their returns.

I remember Facebook's ipo. If I'm not wrong, the shares crashed for a few weeks/months right after the initial enthusiasm. It wasn't clear at all that Facebook was going to keep growing indefinitely.

By the way, did you buy Coinbase shares? In ten years it could be another example of some obvious buy ("big, dominant and in the news"). Or they might have turned to junk, too.

I could see Coinbase as the world's bank and stock market all in one. Or a pets.com cautionary tale. Check back in a decade or two!

Remarkably, facebook was still worth around $100 billion on its IPO even tbough it seems so long ago. It had huge growth leading up to the IPO. It fell due to concerns about Facebook not being able to monetize mobile, which proved to be unfounded.

NO, I would not buy coinbase stock

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