That's funny, they think they'll stop supporting Windows 10 in 4 years, when 16% of Windows computers still run Windows 7. In 2025 I bet there will still be almost 10% of all Windows computers running Windows 7
As such I think what is happening here isn't a "please pick to upgrade to the new version of Windows" popup that feels like a special upgrade rather just another thing that will be pushed down via standard windows update automatically to replace the old version of 10 while nobody notices - as has happened since Windows 10 released. Except this time it has more changes than a typical Windows 10 release and likely a marketing update (maybe changing the name to "Windows 11" but I think more likely they are just going to call it "Windows" because of the above changes in the way updates work and Windows 7 and 8 support ending leaving only this version).
The importance of license revenue has changed; Windows 10 was offered at no cost to existing W7 and W8 users. The ability to control user's computers has changed as well, with forced W10 updates.
EOL for Windows 10 can actually mean EOL for any W10 instance that connects to the internet. If you're a W10 user, Microsoft won't have to ask you nicely to update to W11.
For those who are on Windows 10 because they made a pragmatic choice to keep compatibility with their back catalog of Windows-only software and get the latest security but pay for it in the form of nags, schizophrenic control panels, and forced updates, Windows 11 has an opportunity to take over fast.
How? By removing one or more of the above pain points (and others I haven't listed). I'm not that hopeful that MS would reverse course on these user-hostile things, but I guess I am slightly hopeful for a scrap or two could potentially be thrown my way.
What if Windows 11 was just Windows a repackaged Windows 10 LTSC 2021? By most rumors, it's more different than WIndows 10 than that, but even if it was only a reboxed SKU that consumers would buy, it would sell like hotcakes.