We do intend to ship a ES module build of React in the near future. Because that's a breaking change that could require significant changes to existing apps (i.e. to update the imports), we'll likely wait until the next major release cycle.
However, note that tree-shaking probably won't help much in the case of React. React isn't a library of independently useful features; it's a cohesive framework where features work together. We also have a really small API surface area. So there's no much to "shake" apart.
Arguably the main `react` package would benefit slightly from tree shaking, but those exports are already really small. The `react` package doesn't contain that much implementation; it mostly just calls into internal React DOM to schedule updates.