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> We overestimate the likelihood of unlikely events. And we underestimate the likelihood of likely events.

Perhaps we act this way (worried about plane crashes), but that certainly isn't true. Humans have shown time and again to systematically discount unlikely events.

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Humans are capable of believing in whatever they want. People will emphacize likelihood of a plane crash if they are dreading going somewhere and discount it if there is a vacation in paradise on the other end.

> Humans are capable of believing in whatever they want.

Combine that with an ultra-flexible/fundamentally ambiguous language, and it goes a long ways towards explaining Planet Earth, early 21st century!

> “Combine that with an ultra-flexible/fundamentally ambiguous language...”

Combine those with a what Kahneman calls System I brain and System II brain, and you’re quickly multi-d

Yes...I reckon there is a fairly small set of fundamental ideas that account for the way things are here. And then I wonder: if people had coordinated/moderated knowledge of this, what could humanity accomplish.

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