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Comment by dontbenebby | Hacker News Reader

So to clarify: Belarus forced a plane to land, the French try to respect the autonomy of both, now they're banning flights?

I had half joked I wanted to take the Moscow -> Bejing train at some point , but I guess I'll reasses (my IRL contacts know how much I absolutely LOVE trains), but shit like this makes me inclined to keep spending that money on overpriced coffee or whatever.

I looked at the data[1], and Russia made ~11 billion dollars from tourism in 2015, so they must really value being petty since reading these things make them sound unwelcoming, unfriendly, and straight up antisocial.

[1] a pdf in they wayback machine cited on wikipedia https://web.archive.org/web/20150112082549/http://www.e-unwt...

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Sadly, the criminal gang that runs Russia is not interested in the economic prosperity of its citizens. They want ordinary people to stay poor and isolated since this makes them so much easier to control. They fully understand (and welcome) the consequences of their actions.

Can you shed some more light on this? Russia has been an accounting game since the fall of the soviet union: underpriced shares, diverted revenue/dividend to insiders, lucrative resource or revenue generating assets sold opaquely and also underpriced

Does this end at some point? Where there are no more formerly state owned resources to pillage and convert to Euros/CHF/USD?

> Russia has been an accounting game since the fall of the soviet union

Again, the argument is that it does not matter. As long as the people in power are well compensated the general wellbeing of federation is of little consequence.

It is pretty simple. People who barely scrape by have no time, resources or focus to be fighting. They can't have too much or too little.

I always wonder what's the endgame for Russia. In terms of national GDP, it's sitting between Canada and South Korea. Can you imagine Canada hoarding nukes and sending troops for "vacation"? I don't think Canada could afford to, even if they wanted to (which, thankfully, they don't).

...Is Russia slowly bankrupting itself by pretending to be its former self?

It's trying to protect its western border. There are no mountains there. It's flat terrain leading right up to their heartland that has been invaded multiple times throughout history. The vulnerability they feel on this border is so intense it has shaped the national psyche.

Two countries (Latvia and Estonia) have already flipped to the west (NATO members). Ukraine is torn between Russia and the west (that's what Maidan morphed into after starting off as an anti corruption protest). Lukashenko was engaged in a struggle with pro western opponents.

There's a proxy war going on on its borders. I don't think this is about Russia trying to dominate the world. I think it's about Russia wanting to buffer its most exposed border.

If Western Canada joined in an alliance with Russia and Eastern Canada was run by a pro American dictator do you think America would behave differently?

Given all the shenanigans Russia has been involved in in the past, say, 10 years on their Western borders, I think it has been far too offensive and controversial to “just” be about defense and protecting its border. It’s an offensive game, such as what happened with the Crimea.

I think this comment is far too apologetic.

Crimea was about protecting their naval base in Sevastopol - the only all year warm water naval base that they have.

Novorossiysk?

I figured it was 100% an economic port but you're right they do have a small part of the black sea fleet there too.

It would be an exposed chokepoint if Russia didn't also hold sevastopol, though.

I understand what you're thinking and I suspect you're correct. What I find baffling is that they feel they need to "protect" they're border at all. From whom? For why? Are the Germans going to suddenly roll their tanks towards the Urals? As a mindset it seems so... 1910.

They're trying to edge the balance of power in the region to their favor. The US is doing the opposite. It's a slow ratchet effect that's been going on since the 1950s.

If they gave up entirely on their foreign policy objectives a more likely scenario than tanks would be the Russian State ending up a fragmented, powerless mess.

I don't imagine a US led NATO coalition immediately rolling tanks into Moscow if all 5 countries flip to NATO, but stirring up a separatist movement on the borders of Belarus or Ukraine and then "helping" out? Definitely.

I don't for one second believe that the US will instantly grind to a halt after creeping up on the Russian border for 70 years.

Creeping up to their border? Yeah, let's look at how that actually happened.

As soon as Poland had a chance, they wanted into the EU or NATO, preferably both. They, Poland, desperately wanted in. Why? Because they wanted protection from Russia, and with good historical reason.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania? Same story. It wasn't that the US had a nefarious plot to ensnare the border countries in a US-dominated alliance. They desperately wanted in, because they have experience with being overrun by Russia.

If Russia doesn't like this, maybe they should work on making their neighbors not feel so afraid of Russia. Things like the Ukraine and Georgia? They are not helping.

>It wasn't that the US had a nefarious plot to ensnare the border countries in a US-dominated alliance. They desperately wanted in

The US didn't admit them to NATO because of the volume of their begging. It admitted them because it let them put military bases right on the border of its geopolitical rival.

Similarly when Cuba begged the Soviet Union for nukes a year after a failed US invasion attempt, the Soviet Union didn't put them there just because it was felt sorry for them.

In both cases the countries were legitimately seeking protection from invasion though.

I'm not really sure if it's practical for Russia to try and make its neighbors "feel safe enough to quit NATO". In all likelihood any overtures would be treated as a sign of weakness. But, maybe you have ideas about practical steps Russia could take that would convince Latvia/Lithuania/Estonia to quit NATO. I'd be curious if you did.

Yes, there was a US invasion attempt into Cuba. A long time ago. There is zero risk for any invasion into Russia. Yes, the US likes to spread their influence and likes to have military bases around the world, but even interest in that is reduced. As soon as there is no one to protect against, those bases mostly lose their importance. The only state in recent history expanding their territory was Russia.

Indeed. Even Finland is quite worried about war with Russia.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-12/finlan...

Well, I doubt the Winter War is covered much in Russian secondary school. "You're going to Finland" probably doesn't cause Simo Hayha[0] to visit Russian soldiers in their nightmares.

[0] https://ifunny.co/picture/select-all-squares-with-finnish-sn...

The idea of Germany rolling their tanks towards the Urals is really mind boggling. We have about 200 operational battle tanks left, not exactly a threat for anyone. And the German reunion was mind-boggling expansive. Probably in the range of 1-2 trillion dollars. There is certainly no incentive whatsoever to attack other states for territory.

If anything, in a far future some more eastern states might apply for EU membership, but with the current state of things even that isn't overly likely and would happen in an absolutely peaceful manner.

Russian wages are MUCH lower than they are in Canada or South Korea. Average salary is something like ~500 USD per month, while in Canada it is closer to 5000 USD, so it is a way cheaper to operate nukes and send troops everywhere for Russia.

And if you think that nuclear engineers are making significantly more than an average Ivan, then I have a bad news for you, that's unlikely. For example, a friend of mine works for a subcontractor of Roscosmos (Russian space activities corporation, basically russian "NASA") as an electronic measurements instrumentation engineer and makes 60000 rubles per month before taxes (roughly 850$ per month). That's a joke of a salary and he is only able to work there because he is owning a property in Moscow.

To put things in perspective, Russia's oil and gas contributes ₽5.2T ($720B in USD) to the federal budget alone:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1028682/russia-federal-b...

And those revenues have been in steep decline.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1028682/russia-federal-b...

But hacking is up!

Are there not other bad actor(s) mostly aligned with Putin who could start buying u all their oil if say a war broke out, or are we passed that type of war needing so much such natural resources, or perhaps those countries have enough oil reserves/production already?

This is just a guess, but the former Soviet union countries that potentially would re-align with Russia aren't huge countries with big oil appetites. They likely don't have the means to start buying up billions of dollars in Russian oil.

If they really liked tourism, they would give tourist visas on arrival like all the other tourist loving countries, not make you go through a visa application song and dance.

They were actually going to do something almost as good in 2020 (plans got postponed due to the pandemic)

https://evisa.kdmid.ru/

Most western countries can actually visit without getting a visa in your passport beforehand.

The US and the UK also benefit a lot from tourism, and yet they have an extremely hostile border control system + an extremely onerous visa application process (I got a Russian visa a few times... It's definitely simpler)

The tourists that Russia cares about are not flying Air France. They come and go on their own planes.

Who are they and how much they contribute compared to millions visiting Russia every year?

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