Not sure why there is so much talk about death penalty - according to other sources these is 3 to 5 years of prison at max.
That's of cause if the law doesn't change just for this guy in next few weeks.
The law doesn't have to change, we're talking about Belarus. He could just disappear in the prison system.
I think the dictatorship killed him. The pilots just made an unfortunate decision that was understandable given the lack of information and fighter jet on their wing.