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Comment by pazimzadeh | Hacker News Reader

The idea that there's no luck involved is pretty dumb.

That’s true, but it’s just as dumb to say that success is all or mostly luck.

If one person struggles for years, trying and failing again and again before finding success, and another person spends all that time watching tv and playing video games, is the difference in outcome only due to luck?

If the one who watched TV and played video games is the one who becomes rich, then yes.

There's most definitely luck involved, but a huge part of it is being prepared to capitalize on those lucky opportunities. Are you ready when the bell rings?

And if the bell never rings?

It always rings. The vast majority of people never volunteer, never want to be visible, never want to put in the work. The odds are in your favor that the bell will ring for you, just by reading this forum you probably read other interesting things. Most people just watch TV, it's crazy but it's true.

He actually talks about four kinds of luck. Have you read it?

I'm not even convinced that all of them are luck. I don't know how working hard is lucky.

Well, we're assume there's a certain path you can take to maximize your chances, it will be too pessimistic to always take bad luck in account.

Depends on your definition of luck. Some people define luck has having the skill to take advantage of opportunities you come across. Of course, the skill thresholds to take care of opportunities varies significantly case by case.

Having the luck to be born into a place where you can acquire the skills to take advantage of or build opportunities is one thing, I don't think the skill itself is lucky.

Especially because the author has said in other instances that he got lucky to get accepted to Stuyvesant high school in NYC, which is basically the premiere public school, and that opened up huge pathways for him to later get into an ivy league, and to get into tech investing. Where would he be in life if the coinflip in the Stuy admission office went the other way and he ended up going to a more normal public school and some other 14 year old got accepted in his stead?

Also, he hasn't talked much about his family - except that they were "immigrants and nobodies". But his mom did emigrate from India to NYC with two children, which isn't exactly common. I suspect, perhaps, his family is a little better connected, or a little better off financially, than he has let on. But it would be impossible to get the truth at this point unless it came from an outside source because Naval is going big on narrative building his own life.

> he got lucky to get accepted to Stuyvesant high school in NYC ... Where would he be in life if the coinflip in the Stuy admission office went the other way and he ended up going to a more normal public school

I'm pretty sure "got lucky" here is kind of a humble brag, like "I'm so lucky to be smart". Stuyvesant admissions are straightforwardly and deterministically based on a test, with spots going to the highest scores. There's no admissions officers considering extracurriculars, or interview or anything like that.

The luck could come into play by getting questions on the test that he was prepared to answer. For example, in 2014 I worked at a FAANG, and was applying to another FAANG. I had a co-worker who was the same level as me who also applied to the same company, and bombed the interview. However, I knew from extreme first-hand experience that this coworker was a better engineer than I was by far. But it just so happened that I got lucky with the questions I got, where they all fell into my wheelhouse, and he got unlucky. I got the job - he didn't. I consider that luck on my part.

In retrospect, maybe he did get lucky and I got unlucky, since his stock has outperformed my stock by 3x over that time range.

Just the fact that his mom moved from India to NYC is a giant multiplier on ones chance of financial success. Some might even call that.. luck?

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